How long could WW1 have lasted if the US never entered?

Venocara

Banned
It'd make a very interesting short story imo. As long as it doesn't go down the path of "this is so implausible, let's just add Sci-Fi to it" and actually make it totally ASB. (I personally could see some form of French Civil War arising, definitely not between 10 different sides, and likely not a monarchist one, but some form of one is atleast possible. (In the sense that it could happen, albeit very unlikely, so it's not ASB, but extremely unlikely)

I would second that. A French civil war after a loss in WW1 with as many opposing sides as possible with no ASB... It would be a very interesting story. I would love to see where it goes.
 
Italy doesn't fall, it just warns its Allies that it's approaching that point. That kicks off the impetus for a ln end to the war.

Austria falls apart but in a more civil manner, what I stated is a variant of what the king proposed at the time (United States of Austria but one step further).

I never said that the states in question gain 'real' independence, the are bound Germany but now have their own colors on the map. I agree that they too are satellites.

Serbia will want to form Yugoslavia but there is no guarantee it happens.

There was a general strike in the UK in 1926, with a loss in the Great War I figured the revolt would be even more severe with another one immediately post-war.

As for France they came close to a multi-factional civil war in February 1899. Add more factions and voila. As someone pointed out it neutralizes any threat of France becoming a Fascist powerhouse in the near-term
 
I didn't say that Yugoslavia would form immediately, I just said that it was likely to form. Probably much much slower than in OTL.

Why would it form at all, though? Serbian leadership would have been proven to be a joke, given they picked a fight they were unprepared for and got completely destroyed. Even if the KuK fell, you'd expect larger states like Germany, Italy and Hungary to benefit instead.

It'd make a very interesting short story imo. As long as it doesn't go down the path of "this is so implausible, let's just add Sci-Fi to it" and actually make it totally ASB. (I personally could see some form of French Civil War arising, definitely not between 10 different sides, and likely not a monarchist one, but some form of one is atleast possible. (In the sense that it could happen, albeit very unlikely, so it's not ASB, but extremely unlikely)

Well, with Action Francaise, there actually was a prominent monarchist movement IOTL, it's just that they preferred bringing back the Bourbons. Their integralist ideals demanded a full rollback of the French Revolution, so no Bonapartes for them.
 
I would second that. A French civil war after a loss in WW1 with as many opposing sides as possible with no ASB... It would be a very interesting story. I would love to see where it goes.

I could see the opening month or two having multiple factions until they start to eliminate each other and coalesce into larger units.
 
Well, with Action Francaise, there actually was a prominent monarchist movement IOTL, it's just that they preferred bringing back the Bourbons. Their integralist ideals demanded a full rollback of the French Revolution, so no Bonapartes for them.

But do they have enough support to be effective in becoming part of a civil war? I assume they'd need some regions that support them, and some amount of competent "soldiers" who could prevent some other faction just rolling in?
 

Venocara

Banned
As for France they came close to a multi-factional civil war in February 1899. Add more factions and voila. As someone pointed out it neutralizes any threat of France becoming a Fascist powerhouse in the near-term

Where did this come from?
 
But do they have enough support to be effective in becoming part of a civil war? I assume they'd need some regions that support them, and some amount of competent "soldiers" who could prevent some other faction just rolling in?

I think so. They had a paramilitary wing, Camelots du Roi, that saw a lot of street fighting with other organizations, and they could exploit fears of communism to bolster their support. They were the vanguard of the French far-right before fascism caught on. If we wanted to include as many factions as possible, then AF could split between rival claimants to the French throne, while SFIO could split between its anti-war and pro-war branches, and so on.
 

Venocara

Banned
That's when Emile Loubert became President. The Dreyfus affair was a problem, but otherwise, he only faced one opposition candidate, so I've got nothing.

So where did multi-sided civil war come from in one President dying (whilst he was getting head nonetheless) and another coming to power in a peaceful transition?
 

Venocara

Banned
It'd make a very interesting short story imo. As long as it doesn't go down the path of "this is so implausible, let's just add Sci-Fi to it" and actually make it totally ASB. (I personally could see some form of French Civil War arising, definitely not between 10 different sides, and likely not a monarchist one, but some form of one is atleast possible. (In the sense that it could happen, albeit very unlikely, so it's not ASB, but extremely unlikely)

Are you (or someone else) going to make this?
 
Are you (or someone else) going to make this?

I do not have the talent or confidence in my knowledge to make it, but I would definitely try to help someone more capable with it.

Unfortunately it's another thing on the list of idea's that I will never realise on my own :(
 

Venocara

Banned
I do not have the talent or confidence in my knowledge to make it, but I would definitely try to help someone more capable with it.

Unfortunately it's another thing on the list of idea's that I will never realise on my own :(

Have you never done a timeline?
 
Have you never done a timeline?

Nope.

I don't feel confident in my writing ability, nor do I have good enough knowledge about anything that I could maintain interest in writing about.

I guess I could actually make an NFL timeline, as I have a lot of knowledge about that, but I don't think I would have the motivation to write one to "completion".
 

Deleted member 1487

But they didn't formally tap out until mid-1918, so I was thinking an earlier exit might help the CP food situation a bit. How much did the Germans loot IOTL?
If for no other reason that freeing up labor and horses.
Not sure what they managed to take IOTL off hand, I'm at work at the moment and don't have access to my personal library.

Hell, the Czech nationalists didn't really get rolling until May 1918, IIRC.
Depends on who you mean, there were various groups active in the Entente since 1915. The Czechoslovak Legion was around in 1916.
 

Venocara

Banned
Nope.

I don't feel confident in my writing ability, nor do I have good enough knowledge about anything that I could maintain interest in writing about.

I guess I could actually make an NFL timeline, as I have a lot of knowledge about that, but I don't think I would have the motivation to write one to "completion".

That's a shame.
 
And I'm far too busy with my current timeline and real life stuff, so don't look at me. If I did do an early 20th century story, I'd be more interested in one with no WWI.
 

Deleted member 1487

Very much so in 1917 but as with anything on a national scale the whole thing takes at least a year to play out.
Over a year and in part due to the returning radicalized PoWs from Russia in 1918. The situation with A-H was very complex and even with all the problems they had it took defeat on all fronts and of German collapse to make A-H actually start to fall apart.

Even in your much preferred Entente capitulates completely scenario you are not likely looking at an end to the conflict until sometime in 1919. A 1920 end date is possible save for the odds being against the CP lasting that long.
Based on? Italy was entirely dependent on British loans, which were going away as of April 1917 per the scans I did and another source I provided today. Russia was not likely to keep fighting without the US in the war to keep up their morale and belief in victory (hard to do when the trans-atlantic trade is cut), so are likely out in 1917. France is in a slightly better situation, but won't be able to go on the offensive anymore, so why continue the war? Britain can survive defensively, but are without allies who can help them, have lost half the alliance, and now will face Germany effectively alone. 1918 is the latest the war will last especially once the pro-negotiations French PM is elected and Lloyd George is in power. Just going with OTL series of events into 1918 and ignoring the material effects of limited US supplies the Spring offensives and their success will be irreversable unlike OTL with American help (materially, in terms of morale, and in terms of men).

Battles have been won with greater odds before, and you can't underestimate the morale boost.
You can't count on that, especially given the material situation in the context.
 

Venocara

Banned
Based on? Italy was entirely dependent on British loans, which were going away as of April 1917 per the scans I did and another source I provided today. Russia was not likely to keep fighting without the US in the war to keep up their morale and belief in victory (hard to do when the trans-atlantic trade is cut), so are likely out in 1917. France is in a slightly better situation, but won't be able to go on the offensive anymore, so why continue the war? Britain can survive defensively, but are without allies who can help them, have lost half the alliance, and now will face Germany effectively alone. 1918 is the latest the war will last especially once the pro-negotiations French PM is elected and Lloyd George is in power. Just going with OTL series of events into 1918 and ignoring the material effects of limited US supplies the Spring offensives and their success will be irreversable unlike OTL with American help (materially, in terms of morale, and in terms of men).

The German offensives had failed before the Americans had arrived in force:
Screenshot_2019-07-08-19-30-37-945_com.android.chrome.png
Only in this timeline, there would be no Hundred Days Offensive. Instead, there would be a negotiated peace settlement.

You can't count on that, especially given the material situation in the context.

Ok. Then why would the Spring Offensive succeed?
 
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