Russia is going to withdraw from WW1 sooner or later. Maybe no US entry speeds that up or it doesn’t. For myself I expect no US entry to not have a massive impact on Russia; they are already falling apart.
As to the rest no US entry has no material impact on any of the central powers. I dont know who suggested USA would trade with Central Powers but that is a fairly unlikely outcome in my opinion. First while USA was unhappy with being restricted over trade they were not going to go to war over hunger blockade or even give very much diplomatic support to the European Neutrals like Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Sweden being squeezed by the British. No US entry is going to push the US economy into a recession as all of the war orders dry up. The entente has no leverage with USA as all of the loans were secured by entente investments in North / South America so if the entente defaults the US banks take over the assets and thats about it. What it does is make things worse for UK as a source of foreign exchange is lost and reduced the ability of UK to buy war materials on current accounts even harder.
Now no US entry and no US secure loans doesn’t mean an end to trade it does mean a massive reduction in trade. Entente will have to focus what trade they do first on food stuffs and then raw materials to keep their economies going. No more US loans is going to see a fairly quick and massive collapse of the Pound Sterling as the British have used up most of their gold reserve and historically US treasury was supporting the Sterling. A collapse of the Sterling is going to make imports out of the sterling zone even more expensive and there for less. London was the financier and trade center for the entente powers so all the bad things that happen to UK follow the rest.
Now does this equal revolution and collapse of Western Entente? No it means reduced imports, reduced economic activity and big increase in stress on home front with run-up of inflation and decrease in standing of living. Said stress Central Powers had been under for last 4 years.
How does Italy weather Battle of Caporetto after 6 months of decreased imports? Reduced ability of France and UK to send troops? The French / British troops didn’t stop the Austro-German offensive but the troops did help prop up Italy. Does Italy exit the war in 1917?
Without US entry what happens during and after the French Army mutinies? US entry was a big help for Entente moral and we dont have that here combined with reduced economic activity and more stress on home front. A strong case can be made that Italy and perhaps France are going to be incapable for major offensive activity in 1918.
What does no US entry mean for Central Powers? As I said above from a material point of view, nil. The Germans aren’t going to be under the extreme pressure of trying to knock France / British out before USA arrives. Most likely move is a pair of offensives. One in France and one in Italy rather than a series of repeated offensives in France. The Germans did look at an offensive but felt the pay off of going into France would be higher over another offensive in Italy. Would Italy be able to survive another offensive in early 1918? I tend to doubt it but opinions will be different. As to France would they collapse? Unknown.
The real question people are asking is what happens in the Central Powers. Maybe if the Dynamic Duo (H-L) dont smash the German army with offensives in France they can avoid the historic collapse. The winter of 1918-19 should be better than the historic one and certainly better than winter of 1917-18 but thats not the same as normal. German should get some real exports out of the Ukraine for fall 1918. Historic things were so disorganized that food rotted in field and at rail depots plus the Russians moved lots out to feed cities before Germans took over. They did little more than feed the occupation divisions, which was a major bonus but it wasn’t the huge haul the Germans were expecting. Romania provided more grain than Ukraine did in 1918.
Michael
As to the rest no US entry has no material impact on any of the central powers. I dont know who suggested USA would trade with Central Powers but that is a fairly unlikely outcome in my opinion. First while USA was unhappy with being restricted over trade they were not going to go to war over hunger blockade or even give very much diplomatic support to the European Neutrals like Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Sweden being squeezed by the British. No US entry is going to push the US economy into a recession as all of the war orders dry up. The entente has no leverage with USA as all of the loans were secured by entente investments in North / South America so if the entente defaults the US banks take over the assets and thats about it. What it does is make things worse for UK as a source of foreign exchange is lost and reduced the ability of UK to buy war materials on current accounts even harder.
Now no US entry and no US secure loans doesn’t mean an end to trade it does mean a massive reduction in trade. Entente will have to focus what trade they do first on food stuffs and then raw materials to keep their economies going. No more US loans is going to see a fairly quick and massive collapse of the Pound Sterling as the British have used up most of their gold reserve and historically US treasury was supporting the Sterling. A collapse of the Sterling is going to make imports out of the sterling zone even more expensive and there for less. London was the financier and trade center for the entente powers so all the bad things that happen to UK follow the rest.
Now does this equal revolution and collapse of Western Entente? No it means reduced imports, reduced economic activity and big increase in stress on home front with run-up of inflation and decrease in standing of living. Said stress Central Powers had been under for last 4 years.
How does Italy weather Battle of Caporetto after 6 months of decreased imports? Reduced ability of France and UK to send troops? The French / British troops didn’t stop the Austro-German offensive but the troops did help prop up Italy. Does Italy exit the war in 1917?
Without US entry what happens during and after the French Army mutinies? US entry was a big help for Entente moral and we dont have that here combined with reduced economic activity and more stress on home front. A strong case can be made that Italy and perhaps France are going to be incapable for major offensive activity in 1918.
What does no US entry mean for Central Powers? As I said above from a material point of view, nil. The Germans aren’t going to be under the extreme pressure of trying to knock France / British out before USA arrives. Most likely move is a pair of offensives. One in France and one in Italy rather than a series of repeated offensives in France. The Germans did look at an offensive but felt the pay off of going into France would be higher over another offensive in Italy. Would Italy be able to survive another offensive in early 1918? I tend to doubt it but opinions will be different. As to France would they collapse? Unknown.
The real question people are asking is what happens in the Central Powers. Maybe if the Dynamic Duo (H-L) dont smash the German army with offensives in France they can avoid the historic collapse. The winter of 1918-19 should be better than the historic one and certainly better than winter of 1917-18 but thats not the same as normal. German should get some real exports out of the Ukraine for fall 1918. Historic things were so disorganized that food rotted in field and at rail depots plus the Russians moved lots out to feed cities before Germans took over. They did little more than feed the occupation divisions, which was a major bonus but it wasn’t the huge haul the Germans were expecting. Romania provided more grain than Ukraine did in 1918.
Michael