When and if what exactly?
If you mean when and if they lose Syria, I've already acknowledged that possibility, though even if it does happen it has little bearing on the wider war. Once they reach their Anatolian homeland they will certainly fight on if Germany can still assist them.
As for German exactions these were no doubt unpopular but that in itself won't cause a surrender. Only outright military defeat will do that.
Ah so the Germans who know they have in sufficient resources to maintain civilian morale since late 1916 are now able to further pare the cheese but in your telling the Entente who still in this very much towards worst case scenario, the assumption that US suppliers deny credit and stick to it, still have more resources than Germany cannot likewise allocate a portion of that to their allies.
And this is where your argument falls down. Not that Germany now has a much improved chance in World War 1 that would be valid but that you rely in all of your assumptions on the Germans being able to do things that you then then turn around and try argue the Entente cannot do with more resources.
The whole notion starts without USW, so Germany needs another something must be done in lieu. This means land offensives or a HSF death ride. Neither is likely to see to a reduction in German commitments. Remember the lack of US forces for a prospective 100 days does not release the German Army to attack it merely suggests there is a chance it can sustain the defence.
The German high command in World War 1 may have been idiots but they were also professionals with an entire machinery of government to assess where they were and they came to the conclusion they were losing as of late 1916. As we have demonstrated in this thread the only thing they gained from the fall of Russia was the ability to reallocate troops to other offensives. We know historically those offensives failed and the Germans were
then crushed on the battlefield.
Here we have the essential difference that we expect the Germans to still have a functioning army and navy when they request an Armistice. Given that that we expect the Entente to be hurting as well it is generally accepted by those who are not committed to portraying the Kaiser Keptocracy as STRONK™ that the Germans might be able to parley an exaggerated impression of their strength. However we have less than one additional egg per person and the Hindenburg and Ludendorff clique need a win on the western front for political reasons.
Otherwise the Socialists will boot them out, organise a white peace and likely investigate their corruptions. Good for Germany, bad for wehraboos.