The massive increase in German soldiers surrendering and the Kiel mutinies were products of the realization that the war was lost. The Frontschwein did not want to die for nothing, and the sailors had no desire to be part of some mad Valkyrie death ride against the Entente fleet (primarily RN) for some sort of "honor". The decisive spring offensives were, in fact decisive - in their failure they were the last straw that doomed Germany to military defeat. If the troops don't see the situation as hopeless, you don't get the surrenders/mutinies.
If the USA does not enter the war in 1917 there is no flood of manpower on the way to the Entente, and no unsecured loans - both of those were completely dependent on the USA in the war. Economically this is a serious hit and all sorts of materiel from the USA flowing to the Entente is markedly reduced. Absent the expected manpower and with the restricted supply situation, every theater except the Western Front is going to see reduced Entente strength in personnel and material - there is absolutely no way around this. Best case for the Entente is that Italy does not drop out, IMHO the odds are more in favor of Italy taking a reasonable peace offer in this situation but we're talking best case. No matter what the situation on the Italian Front is going to be much less of a drain on the CP especially A-H than OTL. The same applies for Macedonia/Bulgaria - the Entente can't push as hard there. The Ottomans are still shambolic, but again diffusion of effort means Entente progress against them is probably somewhat slower, so while I expect the Ottomans are going to fold or at least come apart postwar, this is delayed. Russia pulls out and you get a Brest-Litovsk on schedule or even sooner - perhaps Kerensky realizes Russia staying in will let the revolutionaries take control. Even if things go exactly as OTL there, they are out.
Even in the best case scenario for the Entente as 1918 rolls around, they are worse off and the CP are better off. The CP can be more concentrated on the Western Front, and there is no reason to roll the dice with Michael. IMHO this butterflies away the mass surrenders and the Kiel mutiny. OTOH even if Pétain manages to quell the mutinies, and there is no "the Americans are coming" here, the French Army is going to be much more brittle than OTL and IMHO anything more than small tactical offensives is not going to work for the poilu in the trenches, defense only. While things are tight in the CP for civilians, I agree that with no eastern front and some relief on food (whether exported to Germany or simply food not sent to the army there living off the land), CP civilian morale is not going to be as bad as OTL at this time and the military picture is much brighter. On the Entente side Russia is out, and absent US forces and US products the home front is going to be hurting with much stricter rationing and increased casualty lists (each American that stops a bullet is one French or British soldier that does not).
All of that being said, both sides are pretty exhausted, however when they come to negotiate, and they will, the Germans are in a better position as they hold most of Belgium and important parts of France. A-H has Serbia and parts of Italy. If anybody is giving up any land in Western Europe of the Balkans it is the Entente, not the CP. Most assuredly not one inch of Alsace-Lorraine is going back to France.
It is important to note, that while the British are able to produce large amounts of acetone for explosives on their own thanks to Chaim Weizman, they use grain for the starting material - so producing explosives comes at the expense of bread. If you are freely importing a lot of American grain (bought with loans) you don't feel a pinch. If you are not importing all that grain, or the acetone which now you cannot pay for, every shell made with the acetone Britain produces now means one less oaf of bread for the home front. This is not going to be a plus for morale.