RodentRevolution
Banned
For starters there is less pressure on various fronts, so casualties aren't as high, which means less replacements required for the military and more for other things like producing food. How did things get worse for Germany with the occupied territories? They saved having to supply 1 million men with food and in fact sent some home. The food situation improved compared to 1917.
Wilson didn't need political capital to tell the banks that they would be on their own if they offered Britain unsecured loans; his only role in finance was to tell the banks that the government was not going to get involved if they got in over their heads. He'd have to spend political capital to get the government to side with Britain and underwrite loans from US banks for the Entente, which was only done IOTL after US entry in the war. Besides the bankers were already Republicans and anti-Wilson, while Wilson just won the 1916 elections, so it is no skin off his ass to say he was staying out of it, especially since he ran his 1916 election on exactly that premise. He isn't doing anything to help Germany, he's just not doing anything to prolong the war by intervening in private industry to ensure Britain continues getting loans. The lack of additional orders is simply a function of Britain/the Entente running out of money to buy things, something coming when the war is over anyway. Since the next elections aren't until 1918 anyway, that is plenty of time to take the economic hit and recover. Since most Americans were more than happy to stay out of the war, Entente problems are their own making, especially as Wilson had tried in 1916 to get them to negotiate and they said no, while Germany tried to engage with Wilson.
Things get worse because the Germans could not realise as much food from the occupied territories. The level of resistance and now it is not just myself who has made note of it actually went up over time towards the German extraction efforts...this on top of the issues of bad roads and rail links which had plagued Russia enough in peacetime.
As for Wilson he was not merely saying the Government would not secure the loans he was egging the faction of the Fed trying to scare investors off from bond purchases. That is spending political capital. The declaration of War against Germany on the other pleased numerous groups, not just bankers, not just Anglo-Franco and Italo-philes but also manufacturers, farmers, mining interests, shipping interests and others who were by now heavily committed to and reliant on British et al orders. The war is going to go on into 1919 if you have the CP win, barring any kind of miracle, actually if American assessments of Entente gold reserves are accurate it is likely going on till 1920 (except for the fact the CP cannot).
Thus Wilson gets the hit and also the recovery does not happen until the world economy picks up to take up the slack and without Entente war forcing this will take awhile just as it did OTL so again 1918 will be rolling around with a depression.
Not exclusively unless the UK shuts down any and all shipping to Italy, which is going to cause a lot of problems for the British beyond just Italy being a drain on them.
Tell you what go look up the world's major coal exporters in the period.
Edit: Look I realise you are not merely grasping at straws but perhaps do not understand the significance of the numbers we are discussing....also I am going to admit my head canon was wrong, I thought the population of Germany in 1914-18 fluctuated around 57 million, in fact if the Wikipedia source is correct then it in fact fluctuated around the 65 million mark (heading downwards in fact which gives you an idea of how horrific the war was the years prior and post that see high six figure growths). Thus the 1 million men not being fed represent less than 2% (even allowing for frontline rations being higher than workers' allowance) of German ration requirements.
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