RodentRevolution
Banned
Over a year and in part due to the returning radicalized PoWs from Russia in 1918. The situation with A-H was very complex and even with all the problems they had it took defeat on all fronts and of German collapse to make A-H actually start to fall apart.
Based on? Italy was entirely dependent on British loans, which were going away as of April 1917 per the scans I did and another source I provided today. Russia was not likely to keep fighting without the US in the war to keep up their morale and belief in victory (hard to do when the trans-atlantic trade is cut), so are likely out in 1917. France is in a slightly better situation, but won't be able to go on the offensive anymore, so why continue the war? Britain can survive defensively, but are without allies who can help them, have lost half the alliance, and now will face Germany effectively alone. 1918 is the latest the war will last especially once the pro-negotiations French PM is elected and Lloyd George is in power. Just going with OTL series of events into 1918 and ignoring the material effects of limited US supplies the Spring offensives and their success will be irreversable unlike OTL with American help (materially, in terms of morale, and in terms of men).
You can't count on that, especially given the material situation in the context.
Your source actually says Italy is entirely dependent on the British for their economy
Basic energy needs were, however, covered by English coal, which was imported, along with many other commodities unloaded at Italian ports, and carried by ships sailing under the British flag. The problem of the steep rise in freight charges had already had negative consequences for the economy during the phase of neutrality.
War Finance (Italy), 1914-1918 Online.
It then discusses the effort involved in fulfilling all the terms of the British-Italian Alliance and the efforts of Woodrow Wilson to try and force a compromise peace and after British efforts to offload the cost of support for the Italians onto the US.
However this is not the same as immediate and total cessation of British support nor does it suggest that Italy would eagerly seek the right to be looted by a pair of Central Powers who cannot remotely make good its energy needs nor do anything to pluck it out of the British blockade. Remember all claims to the contrary Italy was then and still remains in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea, a sea whose both ends are controlled by the British and whose departure from the alliance would remove the need to send convoys to Italy.
There was a reason that Churchill reputedly considered it only fair the Italians went on the other team next time. Not for want of courage which they displayed in spades (I did mention the 18 suicide charges up into the Alps already) but because of her precarious strategic situation if pitted against the British.
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