How Long Could Turkey Have Held Out Against Germany?

If Hitler had decided to try to get to the Middle East and its oil via Anatolia.

And before you say: "But Hitler would never attack a neutral country". Belgium.
 
Not long, the main hang up would be crossing the Bosphorus

Where the entire British Mediterranean fleet would be sitting within 24h, taking potshots at the rhinebarges (danubebarges?) attempting to cross.

The Bosporus is not a trivial undertaking, especially when your enemy owns the Med and you have no transports.
 
Where the entire British Mediterranean fleet would be sitting within 24h, taking potshots at the rhinebarges (danubebarges?) attempting to cross.

The Bosporus is not a trivial undertaking, especially when your enemy owns the Med and you have no transports.

Exactly, That is what would be the main problem, crossing the Bosporus. Then add in the Turkish ex-German Battlecruiser and maybe even teh Soviet Black Sea Fleet....
 

DusanUros

Banned
Even if they cross, turks are in their home territory in nasty mountains.

And? So was Jugoslavija and Greece. Attrition warfare is something that the Germans ought to endure, they faced it in pretty much every place, having Turkish partizans wouldnt make any more difference to them. The real problem is that the German army indeed wasnt designed for this kind of warfare, so they would probably resort to exterminating countryside villages, to make an example.
 
You ever fought in arid mountain warfare? It isn't nice.
Yeah, but Dusan's saying that the Germans at least have experience fighting like that in the Balkans, and they still managed to win. If they decided to go on after that through Turkey to the southern Soviet Union, they'd at least have the experiences of the Yugoslavian campaign to support them this time around.
 

DusanUros

Banned
Their supply routes through yugoslavia to greece through turkey will be ambushed by partisans at every corner.

Yeah pretty much.....they were. The problem here is the German army's tactics. Yeah lightning war is fast way to take over with minimal losses (for both sides actually), but it leaves a whole lot of men that will turn to partizan warfare. A long dragging war, usually leaves no such thing. In the balkans and eventually in anatolia (if they decided to take that route), the German doctrine should change, into something different. OTL shows it pretty good. Despite all their experience fighting guerillas and partizans, they still couldnt eliminate that thread, which was getting bigger and bigger instead. The German army wasnt fit for that.

Yeah, well the point is that, they wouldnt find in Turkey something that they havent met in the past. And if you cant defeat one threat in one country, you certainly cant defeat the same threat in another.
 
The premise here is that Hitler is willing to delay Barbarossa till at least 1942 focusing on the Mid East first. I think the way Germany succeeds here is this -

1941

May 31 - Crete falls
June 20 - Luftwaffe assets redeployed to the Aegean islands and eastern Greece / Bulgaria
June 25 - Germany attacks Turkey with 1 Panzer Army and two Infantry armes. Luftwaffe assets will make British fleet deployment too dangerous.

It might take till August to get to Ankara and till September to get to the Syrian border. By the November, the German armor is in Palestine and northern Iraq. The infantry armies move east to the Russian border.

The wild card is Russia. Germany would need to keep the bulk of their army in Poland and Rumania. The Red Army was absolutely not ready for war in 1941. I imagine Stalin would want eastern Anatolia like they had before WW I. I imagine Germany would agree to that reluctantly to placate the Russians (after all they have the precedent of cooperating in Poland). I imagine that the Russians would intervene after the Germans take Ankara and reach the Syrian border so they can claim that Turkey is beaten and avoid a direct conflict with England.

The British position in Egypt becomes untenable since the Germans can bring at least a couple of panzer corps to the east side of the Suez. Admittedly the Germans will be operating at the end of a long single rail line but the British just dont have the troops to defend Egypt facing a two front battle (Rommel in Libya and the Palestine based troops. I imagine that the Crusader operation forces are directed to the Palestine front and maybe they slow down the Germans but Rommel will then advance. I'd expect that New Years day sees Rommel meet the forces from Palestine in Cairo.

Similarly, I bet the Germans take Iraq and offer them freedom (puppet government). This aids Germany greatly in that the Mosul oil fields are now available.
 
If it works they also have free access to the indian ocean. I believe it possible if they prolong the wait for barbarossa and don't declare war on the US... they then have a chance to win in the Med freeing up more troops for barbarossa.
 

The Sandman

Banned
And what spare troops are they going to use to garrison Turkey, pray tell?

Not to mention that the Turks have a much smaller front to defend.
 
Exactly, That is what would be the main problem, crossing the Bosporus. Then add in the Turkish ex-German Battlecruiser and maybe even teh Soviet Black Sea Fleet....

They hade no problem crossinh the Eagean till Crete, why a 5 kms long straits would stop them?
 
and they can skip it through Hungary-Romania-Bulgaria, all allies or sympathetics to the Reich


Ah true * slaps head * many apologies its late :p that just meens its only turkey as a hostile area for the supply route but thats still alot of land to cover.

And welcome to the forum.
 
Well there's always the Regia Marina able and willing to lend a hand. :rolleyes:

But in all seriousness... if the Axis decides to go after Middle Eastern oil rather than the Baku oil, an invasion of Turkey is the last thing they'd want to do.

This would dictate a Mediterranian strategy you'd have to neutralize Malta, Gilbraltar and the Suez, pick two, before you could even think about landing troops.

A landing in Palestine thrusting inland towards Iraq would get the job done, though as I mentioned, you'd have to neutralize the British Mediterranian fleet first.

I don't think the Regia Marina is up to the task to do that on their own, even with the Luftwaffe helping them out. Their biggest weakness was that they didn't have a naval air wing and were reliant on a seperate air force branch to provide their air cover, reconissance and attacks. Coordination was bad to say the least. The RM was actually well trained, even if their ships were a bit old(the same was true of Britain though), but their tactics were definitely better.

Gibraltar would be hard without Spain joining the Axis, due to naval insufficencies.

Malta could be taken at great cost. Both Germany and Italy have servicable paratroop divisions.

The Suez... North Africa is a logistic nightmare, especially with Malta in the British hands. Though an Afika Korps reinforcing Italy, could concievably sieze the Suez.

Of course by the time the Axis do manage to acomplish Malta and the Suez, what are they going to have left for a Middle Eastern adventure?
 
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