How Long Could the Fourth Republic Last?

Wolfpaw

Banned
All on the tin, really. It only made 12 years before being torn apart over Algeria, and there seems to have been an almost staggering dearth of political leadership. So, how long could the French Fourth Republic have lasted?
 
I've often pondered this question myself. There are several fundamental flaws of the Fourth Republic (and arguably French democracy itself) that would become obvious even if the decolonization disasters of the 1950s had not taken place:

-The lack of stable political leadership. Probably the most apparent problem facing the IVth Republic. The lack of stability meant that there was no room for taking risks on the part of the Prime Minister or his cabinet. This meant that the possibility of truly great ideas ever being proposed and seriously considered was close to nill.

-A three party system. The three party system (SFIO, PCF, MRP) helped lead to the instability. The lack of a strong ruling party and strong opposition meant constant infighting and compromise. Also, the fact that all three parties were either centrist or left of center meant that there was no true counterweight to the prevailing dirigismist economic school of thought.

-The lack of party cohesion. A systemic French problem that was exacerbated in the IIIrd and IVth Republics. While candidates ran under a party label, unless they were Communist they rarely subscribed to a united platform. Therefore, a SFIO MP in Paris could have entirely different views than one in Brittany. The lack of party unity further complicated the already divided parliamentary system.

-The continued underlying monarchist tradition. Despite a radical-republican past, France has always had a large element craving strongly centralized power. Whether it was the legitimists, the Bonapartists, or even the Gaullists, there has been a significant faction of French voters (usually rural and Catholic) that crave this authority. These voters were prone to support an anti-IVth Republic Party, Algeria or not.

So if the IVth Republic was somehow able to perfectly handle every international situation they were faced with, then they would still be prone to collapse due to the above problems.
 
The main problem with the Fourth Republic was not the Constitution itself, but the fact that 2 major parties, the Communists and the Gaullists, were from 1947 onwards excluded from government. As a result, we had an unlikely - and unstable - alliance of the Socialists, the Radicals and the Centre Right (the MRP), and a serie of short-lived cabinets between 1948 and 1958.

By 1958 however, the regime had started to reform itself. Félix Gaillard and Pierre Pflimlin had introduced constitutional reforms designed to make the governments more stable. The Algiers crisis and De Gaulle's return stopped everything, and that was the end of the Fourth Republic.

So basically, for the Fourth Republic to endure, you have to take De Gaulle out of the equation.

This could be a potential POD:

1953: Charles de Gaulle dies of a stroke.
1955: a substential part of the gaullists around Jacques Chaban-Delmas rally to Pierre Mendès France
1956: victory of the Republican Front (more substancial than in OTL), with more seats for the Radical Party than for the SFIO (Socialists). As a result, President René Coty designs Mendès France (and not Guy Mollet) to head the government.
1956 onwards: reforms in Algeria, no Suez expedition, Constitutional reforms to provide more governmental stability, change of the electoral law from proportional representation to two-round majority system.
Probable military coup in Algeria, that ultimately fails due to lack of support from the conscript soldiers. Algerian independence in the early 1960s (as in OTL)

The Fourth Republic emerges from the Algerian crisis as a stronger and more stable regime, comparable to the West German model. No popular election of the President (with all the deplorable consequenses in OTL).
 
The fourth republic inherited all the flaws of the third I don't think it could survive.

The Third Republic managed to install a republican form of government that lasted 65 years - the longuest regime in France after the monarchy. We owe it, among other things, the separation between Church and State of 1905.

The Fourth Republic, for all its flaws, managed to reconstruct a country mutilated by WW2. We owe it Europe, the Caravelle (and after her, Concorde and Airbus), the French atomic bomb... It managed, badly, painfully, the withdrawal from Indochina. It succeeded in peacefully giving their independence to Tunisia, Morocco and the other French African territories (except Algeria) (Defferre's law of 1956).

Please don't knock the Third and Fourth Republics ; they did a lot in their 77 years of existence.
 

gridlocked

Banned
If the post-war Italian government is still around, why couldn't a suboptimal Fourth Republic Stagger into the 21st Century?
 
If the post-war Italian government is still around, why couldn't a suboptimal Fourth Republic Stagger into the 21st Century?

Well, Italy underwent serious reforms in electoral law and party system after 1992. Constitution has not been changed much, though there is much talk about that since the seventies. The main change is a much less centralized structure, where much power is devolved to Regions, both from the centre and from lower-level administrative units.
Berlusconi has not changed much in the constitution, but he changed deeply the ways it was applied.
 
Well, Italy underwent serious reforms in electoral law and party system after 1992. Constitution has not been changed much, though there is much talk about that since the seventies. The main change is a much less centralized structure, where much power is devolved to Regions, both from the centre and from lower-level administrative units.
Berlusconi has not changed much in the constitution, but he changed deeply the ways it was applied.

Yes, the crucial difference is the polar opposite mentalities of the French and Italians in terms of centralization. Italy has always been a locally-governed country at it's core, with the Christian Democrats supporting that belief. France has generally been run by highly centralized and personality-based governments. A highly centralized, yet politically unstable, government did not have a chance to last forever.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Bump....

Is there any other route besides coup d'etat, either by far-rightists or De Gaulle?
 
A lot better scenario would have been to set up a nice puppet regime in Algeria based on federalism and devolved power, then dump the place. Getting rid of Algeria would clear up the main threat to French democracy.


France IV could have staggered along like Italy till after the fall of the Soviet Empire, which would have allowed for constitutional reforms like Italy went through.

Devolution of authority from the center would have helped a lot.

Algeria and France is like the story of the greedy monkey trying to get the nuts out of the jar. He lets loose of algeria, he is safe. He holds on, he is captured.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
But the problem is that Algeria is constitutionally part of Metropolitan France, not a colony like Tunisia or Madagascar or even Indochina. From a constitutional standpoint, it'd be like the UK getting rid of Scotland.

The other issue is that none of the leadership seemed to willing to let Algeria go. Even Mollet supported escalation, and
Mendès France is likely to get clipped if he tries to downscale.

Again we run into the issue of the Fourth Republic facing a seemingly utter lack of political leadership. I don't even think a successful Suez War could save it, though perhaps it buys Mollet a bit more time as premier?
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I thought I had answered that question.
Wow...for some reason I totally missed your post. Sorry 'bout that :eek:

I suppose the main thing I'm trying to hammer out is whether or not the fate of the Fourth Republic would be effected by a successful Suez Expedition, or is pretty much too late by that point?
 
Wow...for some reason I totally missed your post. Sorry 'bout that :eek:

I suppose the main thing I'm trying to hammer out is whether or not the fate of the Fourth Republic would be effected by a successful Suez Expedition, or is pretty much too late by that point?

No problem.

As for "a successful Suez expedition", I wonder if that is not a contradiction in terms!

I think the only way to "save" the Fourth Republic is to remove the alternative that De Gaulle represented. Without a providential man, and confronted to the crisis in Algeria, the regime will have no choice but to reform (and as I said in an earlier post, it had already started to do so in 1958).

Obviously, the big question mark is what happens in Algeria. Do we have, in this alternate time line, a successful Opération Résurrection http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Resurrection?


Something else to consider, an variation on your original premise: had De Gaulle been killed in 1962 at Petit-Clamart, we would now have an alternate Fifth Republic, perhaps not that different from what a reformed Fourth Republic would have been.
 
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Wolfpaw

Banned
As for "a successful Suez expedition", I wonder if that is not a contradiction in terms!
The awful thing about success is that it can be terribly short-lived ;)
Obviously, the big question mark is what happens in Algeria. Do we have, in this alternate time line, a successful Opération Résurrection http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Resurrection?
Hrmm. I'm not sure. Would a successful Suez expedition strengthen the army's confidence in the Government, or would a victory embolden them to the point of being more...shall we say, "assertive" ?

I'd love to hear some of your thoughts on this thread, by the way :)
 
Would a successful Suez expedition strengthen the army's confidence in the Government, or would a victory embolden them to the point of being more...shall we say, "assertive" ?

I'd love to hear some of your thoughts on this thread, by the way :)

I'm afraid I don't know enough about the military side of the Suez expedition. I only know that from a political point of view, it was a dead end. But even if a "victory" had been possible, I don't think it would have made the slightest difference as to the attitude of the Army towards the regime. Algeria was the key.
 
The fourth republic inherited all the flaws of the third I don't think it could survive.

Actually, the IV République could survive, provided the Gaullists are kept well away from power. Also, if the French Parliament has the courage to massively reform the old III République Government, especially if they do the following:
  • Add a Constitutional Amendment that provides for a "Constructive Vote of No Confidence" (qu'est-ce que cette expression en français?) - whilst it might not help get rid of all instability, it should lessen it and make governance more smoother than the III République
  • Redo the voting system to a mixed-member system (either with PR, as in then-West Germany, or parallel voting, as in Japan).
  • Begin decentralizing Metropolitan France sooner than OTL. Keeping with French republican tradition, the "regions" in this case do not have to correspond to the old provinces, as in OTL.
In this case, no successful Suez necessary. :cool:

Also, it would be nice if the broadcasting regimen went the other way. This means no RTF that is state-owned and state-controlled; rather, have the public broadcaster more like OTL's later ORTF instead and have it more like the BBC or Radio-Canada. In addition, a system of regional broadcasters sooner, probably like Télé-Québec. Probably, too, in imitation of ITV in the UK, France could also have a system of "téléviseurs associés"/"télédiffuseurs associés" (take your pick - the acronym, TVA, is still the same regardless), which could at least absorb some of the old pre-WW2 commercial companies. (However, it would be nice if the 819-line TV system remained - albeit more like the Belgian one where it managed to fit in a "regular" European channel ;), instead of the system they chose which was a huge waste of space.)
 
Actually, the IV République could survive, provided the Gaullists are kept well away from power. Also, if the French Parliament has the courage to massively reform the old III République Government, especially if they do the following:
  • Add a Constitutional Amendment that provides for a "Constructive Vote of No Confidence" (qu'est-ce que cette expression en français?) - whilst it might not help get rid of all instability, it should lessen it and make governance more smoother than the III République
  • Redo the voting system to a mixed-member system (either with PR, as in then-West Germany, or parallel voting, as in Japan).
  • Begin decentralizing Metropolitan France sooner than OTL. Keeping with French republican tradition, the "regions" in this case do not have to correspond to the old provinces, as in OTL.
In this case, no successful Suez necessary. :cool:

I agree with you 100%. Those were the principles people like Félix Gaillard or Pierre Mendès France wanted to implement.

The 2 factors that "killed" the Fourth Republic were the Algeria crisis and the existence of a providential man - Charles de Gaulle. Take De Gaulle out, and the regime will "only" have to reform itself in order to deal with Algeria. Not an easy task - after all, in OTL, it took De Gaulle until 1962 to resolve the Algerian issue - but I think it could have been done. And IMHO, we would be better off today.

Wolfpaw, by the way, I think I failed to mention that I love your timeline about Joe McCarthy.
 
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