How long could the Crusader states survive?

Well if you believe that only slight changes affect the scenario as a whole, then a one off, ambitious individual would be butterflied instantly. No political situation led to Timur, only incredible ambition.

I'd disagree on the "no political situation" bit--multiple ones did, among them Ilkhanate weakness, and Ottoman overextention and tensions with the other beyliks. That stated the chance that one man would build a military engine, so to speak, so locally supreme that he would exploit them all is unlikely. If Timur hadn't happened, various smaller scale actors likely would have--in some cases with significantly less success.
 
Top