How long could the Courland Pocket have held?

I know the Soviets never made a concerted effort to liquidate the kessel because it was more expedient to bypass it and not risk so many casualties during the last days of the war (just as the WAllies bypassed the besieged Channel ports), but it seems like the encircled units had enough in the way of defensive positions, munitions, and manpower to put up a fairly stiff resistance had the war's end not compelled them to surrender. How long would they have been able to hold if the Soviet offensive on the Oder had been less successful and delayed the end of the war?
 

Zagan

Donor
If they did not want to surrender, thay would have held until the mid 50's. See "Forest Brothers" and other antisoviet movements.
 
Assuming the Soviets continued to deprioritize it? However long the ammunition and/or food supply can hold out.

If the Soviets decide to make an all out effort to liquidate the pocket? Probably a month, max. Even given the difficult terrain, the raw amount of firepower and mass that the late-war Red Army can bring down on a particular sector if they decide it must be fucked is just not something that any German force can cope with for an extended period of time.

If they did not want to surrender, thay would have held until the mid 50's. See "Forest Brothers" and other antisoviet movements.

The various anti-Soviet movements were not large army formations but a disorganized band of guerrillas hiding in country they knew well and among a population which to some degree or another was sympathetic to them. None of that applies to the German forces stuck in the Courland pocket.
 
The Germans could supply them and probably even evacuate them by sea until March 1945. The German navy still controlled the Southern Baltic and apart from some submarine attacks, the Soviers were unable to prevent 1,2 million soldiers and civilians, massive numbers of horses and a lot of weapons and supplies being evacuated from cut-off East Prussia January-March 1945.
 
Now, what if the Germans attempted a breakout from the pocket itself and succeeded? How long would it delay the final Soviet Offensive on Berlin? And, what would be the impact postwar? Or is this too late for the Western Allies to capture more territory?

When would such a breakout occur? The best time would have been just after the pocket was cut off. By the time the Soviets had pushed deeply into East Prussia the pocket is doomed. They don't have the ammunition, they don't have the fuel and they don't have the food to go anywhere. Besides Grofaz would never agree to it. By the time that he's dead it's still too late as the naval links have been severed.
 
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If they did not want to surrender, thay would have held until the mid 50's. See "Forest Brothers" and other antisoviet movements.
I think thats impossible, a decade with no resupply, after everything else has fallen? What are you talking about?
 

Zagan

Donor
The various anti-Soviet movements were not large army formations but a disorganized band of guerrillas hiding in country they knew well and among a population which to some degree or another was sympathetic to them. None of that applies to the German forces stuck in the Courland pocket.

I think thats impossible, a decade with no resupply, after everything else has fallen? What are you talking about?

They could have blend in, disorganize and vanish into the forests / countryside.
They were allied with the Latvians against the Soviets. They could have helped / fought alongside the Latvian anticommunist resistance forces for at least a decade, like the Ukranian OUN.
The population was more than sympathetic, they helped the antisoviet movement in OTL as much as they could.
 
They could have blend in, disorganize and vanish into the forests / countryside.
They were allied with the Latvians against the Soviets. They could have helped / fought alongside the Latvian anticommunist resistance forces for at least a decade, like the Ukranian OUN.
The population was more than sympathetic, they helped the antisoviet movement in OTL as much as they could.

But that is not holding it... That is abandoning any form of organized combat and resorting to the guerrilla warfare that would not be able to tie large army Soviet forces. They could make problems for the Soviet for some time, but after a few thousand Latvians end up in Gulag for prolonged period, the support evaporates and they are hunted down and killed. Organized holding of the picket by military formations could not last for very long the moment the Soviets decide to dedicate some effort to clear it up. Most certainly not beyond the general surrender and until '50s? No way.
 
When would such a breakout occur? The best time would have been just after the pocket was cut off. By the time the Soviets had pushed deeply into East Prussia the pocket is doomed. They don't have the ammunition, they don't have the fuel and they don't have the food to go anywhere. Besides Grofaz would never agree to it. By the time that he's dead it's still too late as the naval links have been severed.
I assume that it occurs in November 1944, right after the pocket's formation.
 
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