So lets say that the Central Powers win WWI. Germany is now undoubtedly the greatest European power. But what of A-H and the Ottomans? Both were empires on their last legs IOTL but could they have survived with German support or would they have collapsed. The Ottomans are more likely to fall IMO.
How long could the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires Lasted
- Thread starter King of the Uzbeks
- Start date
I'm not sure exactly when Austria would fall apart, but when it did it might end up overshadowing what happened in Yugoslavia. That's not to say it'd be a parallel. A lot of the Serb-Croat anger has to do with WWII and how Croats treated Serbs in the Croatian puppet state. If the Austrian Empire survives past the Great War it would likely be because they were on the winning side, which means no WWII as we know it.
Ottoman Empire could survive. It had becoming stronger and there had made some reforms. So if CPs win WW1 OE very surely survives until nowadays.
But Austro-Hungary hasn't much changes to survive. Its internal problems were big and there had much nations whose wanted if not independence, they wanted more autonomy. A-H hardly can survive few decades longer than in OTL.
But Austro-Hungary hasn't much changes to survive. Its internal problems were big and there had much nations whose wanted if not independence, they wanted more autonomy. A-H hardly can survive few decades longer than in OTL.
The best option for the Ottomans would have been to stay neutral in WW1 and played the CP's and Entente off against each other. It's often argued that had they done that the discovery of the Middle Eastern oil fields could have bought them another few decades.
It is important when the CP win and how big of a win. A late 1918 negotiated settlement that results in something close to antebellum West Brest-Litovsk East means A-H falls apart almost as quickly as OTL. The OE is more complicated. It has a problem with how it wants to identify itself in terms of Islam, PanTuranism or a narrowly defined Turkish identity (a la Kemalism). This identity crisis would linger postwar. No outcome is certain but the most likely is that the Three Stooges get overthrown in a few years but we do not get full blown Kemalism. Instead something that holds on to the trappings of the OE maybe even a revival of Tanzimat.
If the CP find a way to win earlier there is a fair chance that A-H might take longer to deconstruct and in the OE Mo Pasha, Larry Pasha and Curly Pasha would hold to power basking in their victory.
Mookie
Banned
I dont thing OE or AH would fall apart. They would send military aid to each other, Germany wouldnt just stand there gawking as their allies are trashed. Just like US wouldnt just stand by and watch nazi rebels kill the quen of england and owerthrow the government
Mookie
Banned
I agree. Without the peace of Lusane (or whatever it is spelled) and without greek invasion of Turkey, the Kemal and Kemalists wouldnt reach prominence and Sultan couldnt be marked as traitor for accepting such proposals and thus they would continue on.
I see a lot of economic difficulties, at least till the Oil of arabia starts pumping
It depends a lot of when and how the victory happens. Say that the Austro-Hungarians do not suffer the devastating initial Galizian casualties and that Przemysl and the Brusilov offensive does not happen. Then the monarchy and the army will be in good shape and with lots of prestige from the victories.
No-one really turned to the nationalists until the state was already collapsing, and it was evident the Empire would not survive. People want law and order and food on the table, their jobs and pensions primarily. If the nationalists are not offering this better than the Empire, they will not be able to break the Empire apart.
No-one really turned to the nationalists until the state was already collapsing, and it was evident the Empire would not survive. People want law and order and food on the table, their jobs and pensions primarily. If the nationalists are not offering this better than the Empire, they will not be able to break the Empire apart.
Delta Force
Banned
There was a guide book for people entering the diplomatic service (either put out by the State Department or the 1900s equivalent of Jane's for international politics) which stated that Austria-Hungary would eventually become a triple monarchy or federation and survive at least into the 1950s. The major issue is that no one knew which part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire would become the third kingdom.
Czechoslovakia was one candidate, as they were the most industrialized part of the Empire and rather Germanized. Croatia was another candidate, as they were felt to be the Southern Slavs most loyal to the Empire. Croatia was home to several key ports and was otherwise prospering within the Empire. The Croatians were also some of the few Southern Slavs who were Catholic, a unifying factor in the region. The major issue is that the Hungarians would lose Fiume, and also that the other Southern Slavs were (to put it lightly) not too fond of the Croatians. Lastly, you have Poland. The Polish were the second largest language minority within the Empire (after the Czechoslovakians) and the Polish elite lived in Krakow, so they had some Austro-Hungarian influence. The major issue with a Polish kingdom is precisely that. There was a major concern that elevating Poland would eventually lead to civil war and/or secession and the creation of an independent Poland. The Hungarians were terrified of many things, but Poland truly terrified them because it was the only option with the potential to approach and perhaps even surpass them in importance within the Empire.
Czechoslovakia was one candidate, as they were the most industrialized part of the Empire and rather Germanized. Croatia was another candidate, as they were felt to be the Southern Slavs most loyal to the Empire. Croatia was home to several key ports and was otherwise prospering within the Empire. The Croatians were also some of the few Southern Slavs who were Catholic, a unifying factor in the region. The major issue is that the Hungarians would lose Fiume, and also that the other Southern Slavs were (to put it lightly) not too fond of the Croatians. Lastly, you have Poland. The Polish were the second largest language minority within the Empire (after the Czechoslovakians) and the Polish elite lived in Krakow, so they had some Austro-Hungarian influence. The major issue with a Polish kingdom is precisely that. There was a major concern that elevating Poland would eventually lead to civil war and/or secession and the creation of an independent Poland. The Hungarians were terrified of many things, but Poland truly terrified them because it was the only option with the potential to approach and perhaps even surpass them in importance within the Empire.
as said by other, much depend on how and when the CP win.
The quickest and less devastating the victory is, and bigger are the possibilities of A-H to survive (the other big if is to found someone capable of reforming the state).
But more time pass and more crack appear on the overall Hasbourg building (adding to the one pre-war) and saving will become basically impossible.
The quickest and less devastating the victory is, and bigger are the possibilities of A-H to survive (the other big if is to found someone capable of reforming the state).
But more time pass and more crack appear on the overall Hasbourg building (adding to the one pre-war) and saving will become basically impossible.
A-H can survive if it makes serious reform to its political structure a la federalization. Still, it would be hard to see them hold on to nationalities (such as the Italians) who already had nations.
The Ottoman Empire has more of a chance, so long as it is before 1918. It was the large defeats in Palestine that spelled the death knell for the Ottoman Empire in the Arab areas more than anything else, and their legitimacy tended to evaporate as soon as their military presence did (though this was more due to the inadequacy of protection rather than signs of Ottoman military oppression). And as has been pointed out, if the Ottoman Empire can survive intact into the '40's, she has a good chance of becoming a power in the same sense of Russia today. Militarily strong enough to throw her weight around in the region, and an energy superpower. Provided that the Turkification types don't push their agenda too heavily on the Empire.
The Ottoman Empire has more of a chance, so long as it is before 1918. It was the large defeats in Palestine that spelled the death knell for the Ottoman Empire in the Arab areas more than anything else, and their legitimacy tended to evaporate as soon as their military presence did (though this was more due to the inadequacy of protection rather than signs of Ottoman military oppression). And as has been pointed out, if the Ottoman Empire can survive intact into the '40's, she has a good chance of becoming a power in the same sense of Russia today. Militarily strong enough to throw her weight around in the region, and an energy superpower. Provided that the Turkification types don't push their agenda too heavily on the Empire.
Delta Force
Banned
I forgot to add in my other post, but basically the biggest danger isn't necessarily from the entire empire collapsing, but from the Hungarians deciding to leave. The Austro-Hungarian Compromise of 1867 gave Hungary sovereignty and was renegotiated every 10 years. Technically, the Hungarians could leave at one of the 10 year renegotiations. Unlike the secession clause in the Soviet Constitution, the Austrians and Hungarians were on equal enough terms that the Austrians couldn't just steamroll in to force the Hungarians back in. The Hungarians had their own army, and even if the Austrians succeeded they would face the daunting prospect of ruling the entire empire themselves. If the Austrians needed help ruling in 1867, it's certainly not going to be easier in 1907, 1917, 1927, 1937, etc.
To keep an Austro-Hungarian Empire, as opposed to Austrian and Hungarian empires, enough internal and external tension must exist to force the union without boiling over. Austria-Hungary probably has a better chance at reform (or at least staying together) if they still face major threats rather than if they are a major power. Why would Hungary want to lower its standing in the Empire if all their enemies are vanquished? They don't have to put up with the Austrians in that situation, they can go run their own nation and still command respect. They might even be able to command great power respect, since they would be politically important and militarily potent even by themselves. Anything in the Balkans would need Hungarian approval to happen, if not all of Southern Europe.
To keep an Austro-Hungarian Empire, as opposed to Austrian and Hungarian empires, enough internal and external tension must exist to force the union without boiling over. Austria-Hungary probably has a better chance at reform (or at least staying together) if they still face major threats rather than if they are a major power. Why would Hungary want to lower its standing in the Empire if all their enemies are vanquished? They don't have to put up with the Austrians in that situation, they can go run their own nation and still command respect. They might even be able to command great power respect, since they would be politically important and militarily potent even by themselves. Anything in the Balkans would need Hungarian approval to happen, if not all of Southern Europe.
BlondieBC
Banned
How long could last? Both could last indefinitely.
How long would one expect them to last? Depends greatly on the win scenario. One call have A-H falling apart as Germany wins with the right POD, or one can largely "fix" A-H problems enough to last until now. Likewise the Ottomans can easily become Turkey in a win, or become revived and stronger.
You can look at my TL for a A-H and Ottomans are going to last indefinitely, with strong German backing. Other TL will give you other scenarios.
How long would one expect them to last? Depends greatly on the win scenario. One call have A-H falling apart as Germany wins with the right POD, or one can largely "fix" A-H problems enough to last until now. Likewise the Ottomans can easily become Turkey in a win, or become revived and stronger.
You can look at my TL for a A-H and Ottomans are going to last indefinitely, with strong German backing. Other TL will give you other scenarios.
I'm always highly sceptical of all this "They're doo-oomed - doomed I tell you" stuff, partly due to a boyhood experience.
As a teenager I brought home from the library a copy of Nationality And The War, the first literary effort of a young Arnold J Toynbee. In it, amongst other interesting stuff, he discusses the need to make preparations when a certain ramshackle multi-ethnic state finally (and "inevitably") collapses. The one he had in mind was Afghanistan.
Everything he said about the place was perfectly right, yet it has outlived him by close to forty years.
I have a strong suspicion that the same could be true for both AH and the OE, had they not had the bad luck to pick a losing side.
I really have to agree with you on this count. As I said with the Ottoman Empire, nationalism for a large chunk of the country's population (with the exception of the Armenians) by 1914 did not identify themselves on nationalistic terms, or at least not ethnic nationalist. Arab nationalism was absent outside of Christian communities, and there was no reason for Turkish nationalism which was very much an imposition of Ataturk and his successors. The Empire, contrary to popular belief, would not just collapse from the inside. Despite almost 100 years of being the "Sick Man of Europe" the Ottoman Empire showed signs of losing territory to external powers but never to internal ones. And indeed, it was external powers that dealt it the death blow, after around 7 years of near-continuous warfare.
i've said it before, i'll say it again. this board always underestimates a-h, it's far more resilient than that.
in ww1 it took higher per capita losses than russia, fought at 3 fronts, endured more hardship and stayed around until the end, unlike russia.
as for the ottomans, arab nationalism was a joke for most of the past 100 years.
in ww1 it took higher per capita losses than russia, fought at 3 fronts, endured more hardship and stayed around until the end, unlike russia.
as for the ottomans, arab nationalism was a joke for most of the past 100 years.
David S Poepoe
Banned
I would think it likely that the Austro-Hungarian Empire would last longer than the Ottoman Empire. The k.u.k. could prove to be a good role model for a unified Europe on how a supranational country can be organized and governed.
The Ottoman's I think would just fray around the edges and will find that continued modernization would lead to great problems in different regions.
The Ottoman's I think would just fray around the edges and will find that continued modernization would lead to great problems in different regions.