How Long Could Spain Have Held Onto Florida?

This is a fairly simple question.

Spain held Florida from 1513 to 1763 and again from 1784 to 1821. It would eventually lose this territory one final time following the Adams-Onis Treaty. Basically, Spain agreed to relinquish Florida if the United States agreed to abandon all claims on Texas.

Hypothetically, with a POD in 1783, how long can Spain hang onto the territory before being forced to relinquish it to another power? What would be required to delay the loss it?
 

Glen

Moderator
This is a fairly simple question.

Spain held Florida from 1513 to 1763 and again from 1784 to 1821. It would eventually lose this territory one final time following the Adams-Onis Treaty. Basically, Spain agreed to relinquish Florida if the United States agreed to abandon all claims on Texas.

Hypothetically, with a POD in 1783, how long can Spain hang onto the territory before being forced to relinquish it to another power? What would be required to delay the loss it?

This is a deceptively simple question with a devilishly hard answer.

The big problem is the USA. You need to keep the US and its citizens out of North Florida. Have to think a bit on how that could practically be arranged.

To a certain degree, you need for Spain to remain a power of significance in the 19th and 20th century - good luck with that...
 
Early to mid 1800's are a big difficulty, with most of the new world declaring its independence from Spain, and Napoleon remaining one of the reasons why so many nations felt no loyalty to his puppet government in Spain.

Next major barrier would be the Spanish American War.

How does Florida avoid both these fates?

Is this what you would call ASB?
 
Early to mid 1800's are a big difficulty, with most of the new world declaring its independence from Spain, and Napoleon remaining one of the reasons why so many nations felt no loyalty to his puppet government in Spain.

Next major barrier would be the Spanish American War.

How does Florida avoid both these fates?

Is this what you would call ASB?

I'm just looking for how long Spain could hold onto Florida, little more. It seems almost inevitable that the territory will eventually be lost, but I am looking for how long this can be delayed feasibly.

Presumably, the Spanish-American war would be butterflied away. There is almost a century between it and the point of diversion.
 
If there is no horse-trading Florida away from Spain (or losing it in to the British in the French & Indian War), and there is no Independence, AND there is no American War for Independence, the last hurtle is to keep Spain able and willing to hold onto it during the World Wars and the Franco dictatorship, and after WW2 the international pressures against old-style colonialism would make a surviving Spain about as likely as any very unlikely scenario, like that island nation that Thierry Henry is from even though he plays for the French national team, Guadaloupe.
 
This is a deceptively simple question with a devilishly hard answer.

The big problem is the USA. You need to keep the US and its citizens out of North Florida. Have to think a bit on how that could practically be arranged.

To a certain degree, you need for Spain to remain a power of significance in the 19th and 20th century - good luck with that...
My TL has Spain keeping Florida (including West Florida) through to 1840s and probably rather later, with a hemmed in US post-1812

Not sure what's happening with Florida long term, in that TL, but they're not going to WANT independence any time soon.
 
Spain conceivably could have held onto Florida into the 1840s, assuming that Andrew Jackson doesn't just up and annex it and present the US government with a fait accompli and dare it to give it back as he did IOTL. The big problem with avoiding a US annexation is the Spanish policy of welcoming runaway slaves, which the USA very much did not like and as OTL showed was willing to sanction unilateral action by generals to put a stop to.
 

iddt3

Donor
If there is no horse-trading Florida away from Spain (or losing it in to the British in the French & Indian War), and there is no Independence, AND there is no American War for Independence, the last hurtle is to keep Spain able and willing to hold onto it during the World Wars and the Franco dictatorship, and after WW2 the international pressures against old-style colonialism would make a surviving Spain about as likely as any very unlikely scenario, like that island nation that Thierry Henry is from even though he plays for the French national team, Guadaloupe.
If you remove all that, you've certainly butterflied away the world wars and Franco.
 

NothingNow

Banned
What would be required to delay the loss it?

For a Start, they actually have to give a shit about it. They never really bothered with it outside of some missions, Saint Augustine, and fucking the shit of anyone who tried to settle it up so badly they'd never think about it again.

Basically, if they somehow control the Seminoles (good fucking luck) they'll get a few years. If they put the heads of any englishmen or Georgians found in Florida on a series of pikes running from Pensacola to Saint Augustine, they'd buy a decade or two, add the two of them, and a bit of Malaria and Yellow Fever, and you'd have a place that would keep people out. Except the Crackers and crazies.

Settle the Good areas in the north, and along the coasts with reliable folks, arm them to the teeth and Fortify the Dry Tortugas and Keys (both are indescribably valuable strategically, and worth any amount of Blood and treasure needed.)
 

Flubber

Banned
I don't know about butterflying all that away, but it's possible.


Possible? Are you actually serious?

You originally wrote If there is no horse-trading Florida away from Spain (or losing it in to the British in the French & Indian War), and there is no Independence, AND there is no American War for Independence... Do you seriously believe you can remove the AIW but still have both world wars and Franco arrive on schedule? :eek:

After a POD like "No American War for Independence", it's not just possible that both world war and Franco are butterflied away, it's damn near certain.
 
In my Newtons radio spain held Florida upto the middle of the 20C but that was an accident really. The POD was end of 17C and among other things no USA, no Napoleon (although George Boneapart is a British Admiral) much faster communications along with Britain not really wanting Florida. :D
 
Once you have an independent USA you have independent-minded Americans who take no real notice of official US policy and then try to influence it. Don't forget that West Florida seceded from the rest/Spain on its own. I imagine that you could see a similar situation in the rest of Florida by the 1830s if not earlier

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I think it's no so difficult.

You only need that Spanish Cronwn give more importance to the colonization of Florida looking for the best places for settlements and sendind colonists.

If Spain could have in 1760 some 40k people in Florida then it would be much more difficult to conquer by the british and more important for Spain to hold it

By 1815 Florida could have 100k people and it could defend itself with militias, some support from Spain and using terrain advantages against the weak USA militias and army

From 1850 onwards Spain would need the help from Britain, taking advantage from the fear of Britain of being the next on the list and losing Canada if USA conquers Florida. Should be taken into account that before 1880 the navy and army of USA was much more weak than Spanish's except in the years of American Civil War.

By 1900 Florida could have at least 1M inhabitants and taking it might be a nightmare of guerrilla war in the swamps. Besides all that Florida itsn't very valuable by itself.

An invasion of Florida by 1900 could alter great powers balance, antagonizing Britain and maybe a possible alliance between USA and Germany against Britain

If Florida can survive until decolonization era, by 1950 I think it could survive until now. It would have at least 10M inhabitants and would be the favourite vacancy and retirement site for USA citizens :D
 
Possible? Are you actually serious?

You originally wrote If there is no horse-trading Florida away from Spain (or losing it in to the British in the French & Indian War), and there is no Independence, AND there is no American War for Independence... Do you seriously believe you can remove the AIW but still have both world wars and Franco arrive on schedule? :eek:

After a POD like "No American War for Independence", it's not just possible that both world war and Franco are butterflied away, it's damn near certain.

It's a possibility only, because we're talking about points of departure that MAY or MAY NOT affect various aspects of history. After all, a butterfly doesn't actually cause a tornado literally or figuratively every time upon every thing.
 
Wasn't it all swamp and a pirate ridden mess
When Jackson invaded in 1819, the north of Florida was covered with towns/forts
& farms, established by the civilized tribes, with the help of runaway slaves.
Jackson burnt/destroyed as many of these as he could. Re-enslaving the blacks, & forcing the Indians south.
 
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