How long could South Vietnam last alone?

yourworstnightmare

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South Vietnam had almost none popular support, and your POD is way too late for any chance of survival. You nedd an earlier POD and a South vietnam that actually have support from a majority of it's population.
 
South Vietnam had almost none popular support, and your POD is way too late for any chance of survival. You nedd an earlier POD and a South vietnam that actually have support from a majority of it's population.

1. How can we get that?

2. Is there any chance for a negotiated settlement with some sort of neutral/independent socialist coalition government?
 
OK, I'm thinking that a useful step would be to have a US president determined/suicidal enough to bomb North Vietnam again as punishment for its aggression. So I'm thinking of 3 options:

1) Watergate goes different and Nixon doesn't resign, or at least resigns later than in OTL. Would he react more strongly to the North Vietnamese than Ford?

2) Spiro Agnew avoids his trouble with the law and succeeds Nixon. Same question as above.

3) Nixon picks someone else as vice president. What people were both likely to be picked and more hawkish than Ford? John Connally?
 
OK, I'm thinking that a useful step would be to have a US president determined/suicidal enough to bomb North Vietnam again as punishment for its aggression. So I'm thinking of 3 options:

1) Watergate goes different and Nixon doesn't resign, or at least resigns later than in OTL. Would he react more strongly to the North Vietnamese than Ford?

2) Spiro Agnew avoids his trouble with the law and succeeds Nixon. Same question as above.

3) Nixon picks someone else as vice president. What people were both likely to be picked and more hawkish than Ford? John Connally?

Without Watergate, Nixon was expecting to have to deal with the North breaking the accords, so 1) is a good bet

2) Nixon was determined never to quit with Agnew in line to succeed him; he thought that would be disastrous, and probably many of the Republicans who would have voted for impeachment in OTL would have thought differently if the result of THAT would have been an Agnew presidency

Interesting on 3), who was likely ? Rockefeller ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
OK, I'm thinking that a useful step would be to have a US president determined/suicidal enough to bomb North Vietnam again as punishment for its aggression. So I'm thinking of 3 options:

1) Watergate goes different and Nixon doesn't resign, or at least resigns later than in OTL. Would he react more strongly to the North Vietnamese than Ford?

2) Spiro Agnew avoids his trouble with the law and succeeds Nixon. Same question as above.

3) Nixon picks someone else as vice president. What people were both likely to be picked and more hawkish than Ford? John Connally?

1) Oh yeah. Watergate IOTL cut off American funding, weapons, and air support to South Vietnam. Nixon would have no problem in kicking Rolling Thunder off again and—combined with continuing guns/money—that would likely be enough for the South Vietnamese to win again.

2) Nobody liked Agnew, not even the Republican base. He either gets tossed or loses in the '76 primaries (to Reagan).

3) He wanted Connally but Congress wouldn't confirm with Watergate. If our POD is Nixon runs a clean '72 campaign (or that Watergate is never investigated) but Agnew goes down he probably has a freer hand and could get Connally.

Connally poses an interesting question for '76 of course—Will Reagan narrowly lose as IOTL to Ford, or will Reagan narrowly beat him?

(@Grey Wolf. Rockefeller doesn't fit in with Nixon's basically correct understanding of intra-party Republican politics, although at least on Viet Nam he would likely serve Nixon's purposes.)
 
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