How Long Could Slavery Last In America?

[the Apple Man]

Their would be diffrent possibilites depending on diffrent POD.

1) No American Civil War, just a small rebellion.

2)The War takes place, but it is shorter with a Union victory.

3)The War has the same results, but the slaves are not freed.

4)The Confederacy Wins, but re-joins the Union later in the 19th century.

4)The Confederacy Wins, but remains independant.


Anymore suggested senarios would be appreciated.

 

[Wendell]

The South wins...

then collapses into a series of feuding effectively or officially fully sovereign states with separate trade, monetary, and foreign policies.

 

[Johnrankins]

1) 1880s
2) 1880s
3) 1890s
4) 1900s
5) Most likely 1920s or so but having it even today is not outside the realm of possibility.

 

[Venusian Si]

1) 1880s
2) 1880s
3) 1890s
4) 1900s
5) Most likely 1920s or so but having it even today is not outside the realm of possibility.

DoD is especially an excellent Example of how Slave-Focused America could be.

As for Slavery in 2009, I believe you would need a much stronger Slave-Master/"White Race is Best" Culture.

Maybe New York or Pennsylvania Keeps Slavery?

 

[Paul Spring]

1-4 : late 19th century

5 : late 19th century for the upper south, early 20th century (possibly as late as the 30s or 40s) for the deep south.

 

[Solomaxwell6]

1-4 : late 19th century

5 : late 19th century for the upper south, early 20th century (possibly as late as the 30s or 40s) for the deep south.

I don't think it could last that long. Once the upper south started to go free, support for slavery in the deep south would erode relatively rapidly. They probably wouldn't be the ones to outlaw it first, but the Federal government would, and the deep South wouldn't be able to muster up the political support to stop that from happening.

 

[sahaidak]

I don't think it could last that long. Once the upper south started to go free, support for slavery in the deep south would erode relatively rapidly. They probably wouldn't be the ones to outlaw it first, but the Federal government would, and the deep South wouldn't be able to muster up the political support to stop that from happening.

Do you mean Confederate government? But the CSA Constitution specifically prevented Congress from abolition of slavery. To abolish slavery by act of Confederacy you need to amend Constitution before any proceedings on this question. Deep South states were sufficiently numerous and influential to block any amendments for very long time.
However, I don't see economic sense for slavery after 19th century. So, even with slavery still legal, the CSA would have only small number of slaves as servants, and great majority of free blacks as workers.
Though, such limited slavery would be nonetheless under strong (and strengthening) economic and cultural pressure from abroad (something like anti-apartheid campaign), and at some point of 20th century even Alabaman and Missisippian legislators would feel necessary to abolish 'peculiar institution'.

 

[Johnrankins]

Do you mean Confederate government? But the CSA Constitution specifically prevented Congress from abolition of slavery. To abolish slavery by act of Confederacy you need to amend Constitution before any proceedings on this question. Deep South states were sufficiently numerous and influential to block any amendments for very long time.
However, I don't see economic sense for slavery after 19th century. So, even with slavery still legal, the CSA would have only small number of slaves as servants, and great majority of free blacks as workers.
Though, such limited slavery would be nonetheless under strong (and strengthening) economic and cultural pressure from abroad (something like anti-apartheid campaign), and at some point of 20th century even Alabaman and Missisippian legislators would feel necessary to abolish 'peculiar institution'.

Probably somewhere around 1920, but it may take longer.

 

[Kevin Renner]

Even if the South wins (in reality all they had to do is not lose)* while they may see a brief era of prosperity based on the export of plantation agriculture by the late 1870s the pressure economically from France, Britian and the US refusing to buy from a slave society is going to begin eroding Southern support for the institution at least on a mass basis. Not to mention the low cost products from India like cotton. Plus as the South finds it nessacary to begin industrializing she will find the institution does not work well in the new economy. With a possible exception. The skilled labor market may see a version of slavery that survives longer. Skilled workers are not field hands. They would most likely be treated with a lot more humanity IMO.

* In my opinion the whole idea of the South being victorious and emerging as a powerful nation state on the world stage is ASB. I think the south would of fallen apart within 15 years and the individual states seeking to rejoin the Union. The process would take maybe 10 to 15 years with the Deep South trying to hold out as long as possible. The Rump Confederacy being Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi with the possible additions of Florida and Louisianna

 

[jycee]

Honestly even with the south winning and staying independent slavery would not have lasted past the 1890s. Not unless this is a TL in which slavery world wide is still acceptable. Brazil was the last major stronghold to abandon slavery in OTL and that happened in the 1880s. The other major country with slavery was the US abandoning it in the 1860s after the Civil War. Even if the South won they would abandon it around the same point as Brazil. There would be too much international pressure to keep it going and it was already an outdated economic institution (believe it or nor sweatshop labor is more profitable than slavery).
However one can also argue that slavery still exist today; it is of course illegal but it does not mean it does not happen.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

1.1870s
2.1870s
3.1880s
4.1890s
5.before 1910

 

[oudi14]

1.1870s
2.1870s
3.1880s
4.1890s
5.before 1910

I agree with this, except for the last one. Once Brazil goes in 1888, the CSA must soon follow, or become such a pariah all over the world, that is quickly becomes obvious to all but the most radical, that slavery just isn't worth it anymore. It will be gone by 1895 at the latest. The CSA will not be like North Korea, for God sake.

 

[Solomaxwell6]

Do you mean Confederate government? But the CSA Constitution specifically prevented Congress from abolition of slavery. To abolish slavery by act of Confederacy you need to amend Constitution before any proceedings on this question. Deep South states were sufficiently numerous and influential to block any amendments for very long time.
However, I don't see economic sense for slavery after 19th century. So, even with slavery still legal, the CSA would have only small number of slaves as servants, and great majority of free blacks as workers.
Though, such limited slavery would be nonetheless under strong (and strengthening) economic and cultural pressure from abroad (something like anti-apartheid campaign), and at some point of 20th century even Alabaman and Missisippian legislators would feel necessary to abolish 'peculiar institution'.

Ah, yes, you're right. I was thinking in terms of the south not going independent.

 

[catboy637]

1.Slavery remains in the South for a while, up till the 1880's.
2.Slavery is veiwed as worse, maybe the border states abloish early, late 1860s for South.
3.Basically OTL, just slavery abolished in the 1890's or so.
4.Slavery abolished in South by time they rejoin. By then almost all of the North will have emancipated.
5.Slavery into the 1910's or so in South, then a slowly declining want, emancipation, but still segragation, by 1920's.

 

[SuttlersWagon]

Even with the CSA scoring a major victory and retaining independence, and that would have taken a win in the north somewhere and the defeat of Lincoln in 64', slavery was already an antiquated institution. Besides the international backlash that would follow if they attempted to mantain status quo, slavery was more expensive in upkeep than just buying the equipment to farm or harvest. The deep south would resist, and I seriously doubt the Confederacy would remain united, but by the 80's at the latest you'd have South Africa like apartheid reigning in the south and the end of that peculiar institution.

 

[Fiver]

1) 1930's
2) 1930's
3) 1940's
4) 1890's
5) 2020's

 

[DuQuense]

How Long Could Slavery Last In America?

Slavery can last till today, After all It has. I read just last Year about the FBI breaking a major Slave Ring in California, that had Seamstresses chained to the Sewing Machines in a Sweat Shop.

I think You where wondering ?How long could Legalized Slavery last?
That too could last till today. A slight change in the wording of the 13th Amendment, allowing Slavery as a Legal proscribed Punishment ..............

If you are asking how long would Slavery last in the CSA -- I Refer you to the 6 [or was it 8] Threads whe had just 2 weeks ago.

 

[the Apple Man]

Slavery can last till today, After all It has. I read just last Year about the FBI breaking a major Slave Ring in California, that had Seamstresses chained to the Sewing Machines in a Sweat Shop.

I think You where wondering ?How long could Legalized Slavery last?
That too could last till today. A slight change in the wording of the 13th Amendment, allowing Slavery as a Legal proscribed Punishment ..............

If you are asking how long would Slavery last in the CSA -- I Refer you to the 6 [or was it 8] Threads whe had just 2 weeks ago.

Well, this thread is about two weeks old...

 

[General Mung Beans]

1. 1870

2. 1865

3. 1870

4. 1890

5. 1890

 

[William Blake]

DoD is especially an excellent Example of how Slave-Focused America could be.

DoD is not really all that plausible.
Slavery is an extreme case of class/caste .
Now, in order to sustain such extreme class
difference, you have to create more and more regulations as the society gets more sophisticated.
The system at OTL South Africa was not quite
slavery and they were much smaller than DoD's
USA, but even so they were getting bogged down in mountains ocf codes and regulations. The problem is that the greater the class difference you built in your system, the more rigid it
becomes, and the more rigid your system is,
more rules it requires in order to function.
DoD works largely by handwaving this away...