I'm almost certain this has been asked before, but the search function is buggering up again for me.
In truth not much longer, by the late 1970's they were being overwhelmed. Losing Portuguese support after the Carnation Revolution meant they had to defend the Mozambique border, this couldn't be done with the manpower to hand so Smith had changed tactics to concentrate on the big cities and the crucial supply route to South Africa. Even then they were struggling, the attack on the oil reserve in Salisbury was a hugely symbolic victory for the rebels as it proved the Rhodesians couldn't stop terrorism in their own capital.
They were also starting to suffer a manpower shortage because increasing numbers of young whites were emigrating rather than face years of military service. Had the war continued its possible that by the early 1980's the rebels would have seized control of large parts of Rhodesia and the Givernment was increasingly unable to defend it. The endgame ITTL would have been very messy.
Is this then presupposing that if the Carnation Revolution didn't happen, and the Portuguese Colonial War is prolonged, Smith could have held out a little longer?
Would there be any way to maintain Rhodesia into the modern era; basically to phase-out white dominance, without chasing the English settlers out of the nation, and to not suffer the economic collapse that marked the region in OTL?
Is this then presupposing that if the Carnation Revolution didn't happen, and the Portuguese Colonial War is prolonged, Smith could have held out a little longer?
Would there be any way to maintain Rhodesia into the modern era; basically to phase-out white dominance, without chasing the English settlers out of the nation, and to not suffer the economic collapse that marked the region in OTL?
Without Angola and Mozambique falling, Rhodesia will not fall as easily. Rhodesia really only began to suffer after Portugal pulled out of Mozambique in 1975 and they lost their main outlets for trade. Despite sanctions, Rhodesia's economy grew from 1966-1974 and the country managed to attract a net gain of white immigrants until 1975. Also, with Mozambique still under Portuguese rule, ZANU and ZAPU cannot use Mozambique as a base to launch raids into the country. This gives Rhodesia a much longer lifespan.
South Africa too will not have to suffer a border war in Southwest Africa, so they are much better off by being able to avoid conscription and a costly border war in Angola. Also, they could avoid many of the initial military sanctions by not invading Angola. On the other hand they may not be as self sufficient in the production of military hardware as they were by the 1980s.
So, if these are done prior to the Carnation Revolution, as well as pulling out of Guinea, Portugal would've been in a strong position with autonomous regions that effectively remain Portuguese territory, and the main external threat to the Smith regime/Administration is neutralized. South Africa is in a stronger position as well.
Portugal had basically won in Southern Africa, Mozambique and Angola were under control, the issue was Guinea where the PAIGC controlled nearly all of the country and the Portuguese 'nam, they ditch Guinea they can hold everything else