How long could Rhodesia have held out?

In truth not much longer, by the late 1970's they were being overwhelmed. Losing Portuguese support after the Carnation Revolution meant they had to defend the Mozambique border, this couldn't be done with the manpower to hand so Smith had changed tactics to concentrate on the big cities and the crucial supply route to South Africa. Even then they were struggling, the attack on the oil reserve in Salisbury was a hugely symbolic victory for the rebels as it proved the Rhodesians couldn't stop terrorism in their own capital.

They were also starting to suffer a manpower shortage because increasing numbers of young whites were emigrating rather than face years of military service. Had the war continued its possible that by the early 1980's the rebels would have seized control of large parts of Rhodesia and the Givernment was increasingly unable to defend it. The endgame ITTL would have been very messy.
 
Alright, thanks very much for the well reasoned and prompt reply :). It's much appreciated especially now that our resident Rhodesia expert is no longer with us.
 
In truth not much longer, by the late 1970's they were being overwhelmed. Losing Portuguese support after the Carnation Revolution meant they had to defend the Mozambique border, this couldn't be done with the manpower to hand so Smith had changed tactics to concentrate on the big cities and the crucial supply route to South Africa. Even then they were struggling, the attack on the oil reserve in Salisbury was a hugely symbolic victory for the rebels as it proved the Rhodesians couldn't stop terrorism in their own capital.

They were also starting to suffer a manpower shortage because increasing numbers of young whites were emigrating rather than face years of military service. Had the war continued its possible that by the early 1980's the rebels would have seized control of large parts of Rhodesia and the Givernment was increasingly unable to defend it. The endgame ITTL would have been very messy.

Don't forget, South Africa had also basically cut them off by the late 1970s.
 
Without any major PODs I would think TOS is right

I would think the Zimbabwe-Rhodesia attempt would be the only one that would have any legs really and even then, pretty unlikely.
 
Would there be any way to maintain Rhodesia into the modern era; basically to phase-out white dominance, without chasing the English settlers out of the nation, and to not suffer the economic collapse that marked the region in OTL?
 
Is this then presupposing that if the Carnation Revolution didn't happen, and the Portuguese Colonial War is prolonged, Smith could have held out a little longer?

I think it is presupposing that Portugal keeps fighting and as such, Rhodesia has an ally that is effective enough in its own territory to hinder the effectiveness of the guerillas infiltrating into Rhodesia.

Rhodesian forces cooperated closely with Portugal on joint operations and the rail link to the Mozambican port of Beira was the principal transport link for Rhodesia for some time. It was far more direct than the South African link and IIRC, far less congested, as Rhodesian supplies/exports did not have to compete with the demands the South African economy placed on its own transport infrastructure.

I would suspect it is also harder for the outside world to so easily blockade Rhodesia if they have Mozambique on side as well. IOTL the RN Beira Patrol was not super effective

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beira_Patrol
 
Would there be any way to maintain Rhodesia into the modern era; basically to phase-out white dominance, without chasing the English settlers out of the nation, and to not suffer the economic collapse that marked the region in OTL?

So, like a smaller South Africa basically?
 
Is this then presupposing that if the Carnation Revolution didn't happen, and the Portuguese Colonial War is prolonged, Smith could have held out a little longer?

yes, Mozambique became a base for ZANLA, and most of Rhodesia's exports went through Mozambique's ports, SA was always a little cool to the Rhodesians, SA's leadership were Afrikaans nationals so being buddy buddy with the British whites of the Rhodesian sat poorly with them, so the Rhodies ended up being closer to the Portuguese Colonials than their former Empire brothers, so once the Portuguese are out Smith and co's days are numbered
 
Would there be any way to maintain Rhodesia into the modern era; basically to phase-out white dominance, without chasing the English settlers out of the nation, and to not suffer the economic collapse that marked the region in OTL?

yes, it basically happened in OTL, in 1978 Smith and African nationalists under Bishop Abel Muzorewa formed Zimbabwe Rhodesia, Thatcher wanted to recognize this power-sharing state, but Carter was against it, and so in 1980 they struck basically the same deal (20 white seats, no land reform for 10 years etc) with Mugabe and we know how that turned out, basically if Ford won in 1976 or Smith held till 1981 Zimbabwe Rhodesia lives, the Bush War goes on through the 1980s or so till the USSR falls and Communists melt,
 
In threads about the Portuguese Colonial Wars, per Viriato, Portuguese East Africa was possibly going to be split, with the North east being given to FRELIMO but the majority remaining a Portuguese autonomous area with white rule. If such a situation happened, then Rhodesia's eastern border would have been effectively secured.

A similiar propsal was floated in Angola with UNITA, a rather pro-regime group in the beginning, given power sharing in the southeast corner, avoing the South African Border War.

So, if these are done prior to the Carnation Revolution, as well as pulling out of Guinea, Portugal would've been in a strong position with autonomous regions that effectively remain Portuguese territory, and the main external threat to the Smith regime/Administration is neutralized. South Africa is in a stronger position as well.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=170739

Without Angola and Mozambique falling, Rhodesia will not fall as easily. Rhodesia really only began to suffer after Portugal pulled out of Mozambique in 1975 and they lost their main outlets for trade. Despite sanctions, Rhodesia's economy grew from 1966-1974 and the country managed to attract a net gain of white immigrants until 1975. Also, with Mozambique still under Portuguese rule, ZANU and ZAPU cannot use Mozambique as a base to launch raids into the country. This gives Rhodesia a much longer lifespan.

South Africa too will not have to suffer a border war in Southwest Africa, so they are much better off by being able to avoid conscription and a costly border war in Angola. Also, they could avoid many of the initial military sanctions by not invading Angola. On the other hand they may not be as self sufficient in the production of military hardware as they were by the 1980s.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=223904&highlight=rhodesia
 
So, if these are done prior to the Carnation Revolution, as well as pulling out of Guinea, Portugal would've been in a strong position with autonomous regions that effectively remain Portuguese territory, and the main external threat to the Smith regime/Administration is neutralized. South Africa is in a stronger position as well.

Portugal had basically won in Southern Africa, Mozambique and Angola were under control, the issue was Guinea where the PAIGC controlled nearly all of the country and the Portuguese 'nam, they ditch Guinea they can hold everything else
 
Portugal had basically won in Southern Africa, Mozambique and Angola were under control, the issue was Guinea where the PAIGC controlled nearly all of the country and the Portuguese 'nam, they ditch Guinea they can hold everything else

Yup, ditching Guinea basically saves the regime in Lisbon.

There may be a fourth world system for the 80s. Portugal as a major oil producer with Rhodesia, South Africa and Brazil forming a less democratic South Atlantic Treaty Organization opposed to teh ev0l Communists.

Post-Communism may get even messier once the regimes are finally opposed by the US since Moscow isn't a threat anymore.
 
Top