How long could Nixon have held out?

If Richard Nixon had pulled out all stops to stay in office as long as possible, how long could he have held out?
 
If evidence came out as in otl, the house impeaches him (was Congress in recess in August 1974) as soon as possible. He would be convicted. I guess he could try to slow the Senate trial but surely he is out before November
 
If he had burned the tapes, which I would consider falling within the category of pulling out all the stops, he might well leave office on January 20, 1977 -- probably under a cloud of accusations and perhaps greatly weakened, but without conclusive proof of personal wrongdoing.

In any scenario where he did not burn the tapes, he's out by the 1974 midterms; impeached by the House and removed from office by conviction in the Senate. As I recall, the only thing standing between him and a Senate trial was the impeachment vote in the House, which had already been voted on by the Judiciary Committee. At the time he resigned, it was clear -- and Goldwater went to the White House to tell him -- that the votes for conviction in the Senate were there.
 
What if Nixon throws CReeP under the bus? I mean, the damning thing Nixon did was try to cover up Watergate. If he announces "These men broke into Watergate, I did not know about it beforehand, this is the information I have on it" instead of trying to cover it up, he's not really performing any illegal actions. It's most likely that he didn't know about Watergate beforehand, his only crime was the cover-up.

This will not win him any popularity points. It could very likely cost him the election. But if he's able to do enough damage control to still get re-elected (and keep in mind, 1972 was a landslide election), it'll be difficult for Congress to find cause to actually boot him out. Efforts to impeach him, maybe, but not much more than that.
 
Assuming everything plays out as it did the OTL, Nixon, if he were stupid enough, could hold out until he's actually impeached sometime in late August/early September of '74.

Once the "Smoking Gun" tape comes out, Nixon is gone. In the OTL, he lasted less than 72 hours after the tape was released. The tape was such a slam dunk that ten of the 11 committee members who had earlier voted in July against the three articles of impeachment announced they'd vote for the same articles when the vote came to the House floor. Also, as Solomaxwell correctly points out, there were already enough votes in the Senate to convict Nixon.

(IMHO, Nixon held out too long in the OTL. Once Felt leaked both the existence of the taping system and the possible contents of the "Smoking Gun" tape to the Post, contents which Dean and others confirmed, Nixon was done even if he destroyed the tapes.)

There are many PODs which could minimize Watergate and keep Nixon in office at varying levels of "lame duck" status. Keeping Felt somehow onside is one, hiring someone other than the Cuban version of the Three Stooges to commit the break-in is another.

As previously sugested, immediately throwing CREEP under the bus, along with a few select staffers who could be relied on to keep their mouths shut even when convicted, could be another possibility. Having a president who has been running on a law & order platform since 1968 acting as if he's imposing a little law & order within his own administration might actually play well with the voters.
 
in otl some Republicans on the Judisiary committtee voted to impeach before the tape. If the tape were disapeared I think it quite likely there would still have been two thirds in the senate to convict
 
in otl some Republicans on the Judisiary committtee voted to impeach before the tape.


Yes. The committee vote had been 27-11 on the three articles weeks before the "Smoking Gun" tape was released. All the tape did was change ten of those 11 "No" votes into "Yes" votes.

If the tape were disapeared I think it quite likely there would still have been two thirds in the senate to convict
Again, yes. Goldwater had conducted most of his straw poll before the "Smoking Gun" tape came out and the results clearly showed a two-thirds majority for conviction.

It was Nixon's actions to prevent the tape from being handed over which had damaged his presidency beyond repair. All the tape did was remove all doubts.
 
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