How long could Madagascar remain independent of foreign rule?

All Rounder

Gone Fishin'
A thought that has been floating through my mind was how long can Madagascar last without any form of European colonization, this being through any means possible such as it developing a civilization comparable to 18th century Europe (Non existent possibility) to a simple ignorance of the island and more focus put on the continent of Africa itself.
 
A thought that has been floating through my mind was how long can Madagascar last without any form of European colonization, this being through any means possible such as it developing a civilization comparable to 18th century Europe (Non existent possibility) to a simple ignorance of the island and more focus put on the continent of Africa itself.
Well, French presence until the 1890's was very sparse. It's not very hospitable terrain.

Plus, the kingdom was very well structure with a solid state that fought French encroachment. In the XVIIITH Century it was pretty much only Port Dauphin and had little to offer that the Ile Bourbon couldn't.

Interestingly enough, even.The Arab trade wasn't as overbearing as the Africa coast. Less slaves I'd think
 

All Rounder

Gone Fishin'
Well, French presence until the 1890's was very sparse. It's not very hospitable terrain.

Plus, the kingdom was very well structure with a solid state that fought French encroachment. In the XVIIITH Century it was pretty much only Port Dauphin and had little to offer that the Ile Bourbon couldn't.

Interestingly enough, even.The Arab trade wasn't as overbearing as the Africa coast. Less slaves I'd think

This is an assumption, but are you suggesting that Madagascar could have developed virtually independent of outside influence if the French had focused more on continental Africa?
 

Japhy

Banned
This is an assumption, but are you suggesting that Madagascar could have developed virtually independent of outside influence if the French had focused more on continental Africa?
It absolutely could have, with ease. As one of the few states that met Western standards of being "Established" all you need is an Open Door Agreement between Colonial powers instead of a General Acceptance of French Interests on the Island.
 

All Rounder

Gone Fishin'
It absolutely could have, with ease. As one of the few states that met Western standards of being "Established" all you need is an Open Door Agreement between Colonial powers instead of a General Acceptance of French Interests on the Island.

Could Madagascar have possibly gone down these two different paths as a result of it being left alone?

-An isolationist route that could also diverge into a pre WW1 U.S isolationist type of nation or a North Korean type but with the potential of more prosperity than the former.
-Play an active but miniscule role in world politics on par with modern Nepal.
 

Japhy

Banned
Could Madagascar have possibly gone down these two different paths as a result of it being left alone?

-An isolationist route that could also diverge into a pre WW1 U.S isolationist type of nation or a North Korean type but with the potential of more prosperity than the former.
-Play an active but miniscule role in world politics on par with modern Nepal.
You're talking about centuries of divergence. Ethiopia and Liberia are probably the best things to look at for guessing trajectories. But it's not like a Free Madagascar has inevitable paths it would have to take.
 

All Rounder

Gone Fishin'
You're talking about centuries of divergence. Ethiopia and Liberia are probably the best things to look at for guessing trajectories. But it's not like a Free Madagascar has inevitable paths it would have to take.

Just ideas is all I had.
 
Madagascar has a unique position in that it's basically like Thailand in terms of its advancement, potential, etc. but with the position of Japan as an island and all (a resource poor island, as far as I can tell). Ethiopia's also a good comparison, but Madagascar is much more ethnically and religiously homogenous in that everyone speaks the same language although inter-Malagasy distinctions still exist. The Merina monarchy, when they embraced modernisation and didn't seclude themselves, looked to be on the cusp of becoming a modern state respected more or less by Europeans. Ranavalona II's brutal policies helped depopulate and weaken Madagascar. Either Radama I or Radama II, if they'd lived longer (one died of alcoholism, the other was murdered in a coup), could've greatly helped in modernising Madagascar and keeping it independent.

Now, we aren't getting an African Japan out of it, but Europeans would part with maybe a port or two as concessions, leaving the Merina monarchy independent as a whole. I'd also suspect they could have their own mini-Russo-Japanese War moment by defeating the Portuguese. Defeating France in a Russo-Japanese War-esque conflict would make for an awesome Malagasy wank, but if it's even doable at all, would require a pre-19th century POD probably involving earlier unification of Madagascar and everything going right for the forces who wanted modernisation. I'd think with France's colonisation efforts in the area, Madagascar would be more after their land, and could make a good ally for the Germans.

Everything I've read on the subject suggests that 19th century Madagascar could've had a far more interesting fate than what it got OTL. I'd say it's probably the most likely to avoid being colonised of any African country, right up there with Ethiopia if not higher.
 
Now, we aren't getting an African Japan out of it, but Europeans would part with maybe a port or two as concessions, leaving the Merina monarchy independent as a whole. I'd also suspect they could have their own mini-Russo-Japanese War moment by defeating the Portuguese. Defeating France in a Russo-Japanese War-esque conflict would make for an awesome Malagasy wank, but if it's even doable at all, would require a pre-19th century POD probably involving earlier unification of Madagascar and everything going right for the forces who wanted modernisation. I'd think with France's colonisation efforts in the area, Madagascar would be more after their land, and could make a good ally for the Germans.

Everything I've read on the subject suggests that 19th century Madagascar could've had a far more interesting fate than what it got OTL. I'd say it's probably the most likely to avoid being colonised of any African country, right up there with Ethiopia if not higher.

Maybe the Portuguese try to establish an outpost there (did they OTL?) and the French cannot claim it for themselves. Then you get several comptoirs scattered on the coasts. Given that Madagascar is more centralised, you get a state like Burma rather than India, with the economy getting geared toward export.

Since it's an island, and a rugged one, it's harder to actually conquer (see how bloody the French conquest was)
 
Maybe the Portuguese try to establish an outpost there (did they OTL?) and the French cannot claim it for themselves. Then you get several comptoirs scattered on the coasts. Given that Madagascar is more centralised, you get a state like Burma rather than India, with the economy getting geared toward export.

Since it's an island, and a rugged one, it's harder to actually conquer (see how bloody the French conquest was)
In regard to the Portuguese: they had first sight of the island in 1500 during the Cabral expedition. There were reports of mestizos on the island when the Portuguese made more of an effort to explore the island in 1613. During that time, a stone fort was found on the island of Santa Cruz. There is speculation that there was a settlement there in the first half of the 1500's. The following link goes into some detail. http://www.colonialvoyage.com/portuguese-fort-in-madagascar/
 
In regard to the Portuguese: they had first sight of the island in 1500 during the Cabral expedition. There were reports of mestizos on the island when the Portuguese made more of an effort to explore the island in 1613. During that time, a stone fort was found on the island of Santa Cruz. There is speculation that there was a settlement there in the first half of the 1500's. The following link goes into some detail. http://www.colonialvoyage.com/portuguese-fort-in-madagascar/

Madagascar being divided back then is quite different than the united (or almost so) Madagascar in the 19th century. I suppose a group besides the Merina might have been able to unite the island (incidentally, you could have multiple post-colonial states in Madagascar if no one unites the place).

But I would imagine that any Malagasy-Portuguese War would be aimed at Mozambique. Madagascar might want something out of there which Portugal won't or can't give them. Late 19th century Portugal has a couple of light cruisers for their fleet. Madagascar presumably would have at least equivalent warships (purchased from somewhere in Europe) if not better. Portugal's army was often derided by its allies in WWI. Madagascar, well, probably of equivalent quality for their army. Things just might work out, and Madagascar can enforce their demands on the Portuguese. Russo-Japanese War in miniature.

This also would apply to any European invasion of Madagascar, which a more modernised Malagasy state than OTL would be capable of causing difficulties to a French (or British) invasion. It might not be worth the effort in the end, just make sure the island is a puppet state and not, say, aiding the Germans.
 
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