How long could Apartheid South Africa last

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by thatsbunkers, May 16, 2018.

  1. thatsbunkers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2018
    What is the absolute furthest South Africa could get before Apartheid was legally abolished or South Africa fell into civil war. I don’t think South Africa could last until 2018 without collapsing but is it possble for them to make it into the 21st century?
     
    Vornado and markus meecham like this.
  2. sloreck Grunt Bear

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2008
    Location:
    Midwest
    If the rest of the world treats South Africa as just another country, no international sanctions etc, a lot longer. If you don't have the USSR/Soviet bloc providing some level of support to the "frontline" states and the ANC, that also extends their lifetime. Eventually the system will break down but without significant external pressure it will take some time. Except for oil, SA is pretty self sufficient, and they have a lot of valuable stuff other folks want to buy.
     
    Zagan, Vornado and Laqueesha like this.
  3. Laqueesha The Right Honourable and Quasi-Learned Laq'

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2010
    Location:
    Placentashire, Placentaland, Placenta Kingdom
    FWIW, F.W. de Klerk said it could have lasted ten more years, even with the international sanctions.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2018
    markus meecham likes this.
  4. FillyofDelphi Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2017
    Absolute farthest, or until they hit the "Point of Greatest Vulnerability to Collapse?". I say this because, in the long term, the official Bantustan policy of segregating the nation's black population into the peripheries, dividing them geographically from the prosperous core and centers of white and mixed race folks as well as isolating them from one another and encouraging ethnic "otherization" would have likely lead to a situation in which Apartheid could be continued indefinitely. Though eventually this would probably involve spinning off the black regions as separate states, the main body and continuation of "South Africa" would have a substantial enough percentage of the population being at least culturally "white" that international pressure to remove the policies as well as internal problems related to it would grow weaker and weaker.
     
  5. Inferus In dreams, truth. Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2008
    Location:
    Roaming the Ether
    I thought one of the main reasons for the relaxation of Apartheid was the coming economic collapse (issues with sanctions, the drawdown of support by the UK, union pressure, etc). That was what I was told by myriad people while living in Joburg during the 2000s.
     
    markus meecham and Laqueesha like this.
  6. Marius Member Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2004
    There was also pressure from big business - your profits are smaller than they could be if you keep 80% of the population from reaching their full human and economic potential.
     
  7. Marius Member Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2004
    That was literally the long-term plan for apartheid.
     
    Raferty and King_Arthur like this.
  8. LouisTheGreyFox The Hyperactive Furry Historian

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2015
    Location:
    British Dominion of New Jersey
    I always wondered how long could of Apartheid South Africa would've lasted if it wasn't for Mandela. I honestly have no idea how long it would've lasted for honestly even if it surely was capable of surviving into the 21st century. If it did survive well into the 21st century I probably can only assume that it be a "paradise" for Neo-Nazis and people of the alt-right from the US and Europe.

    I sort've see a surviving Apartheid South Africa as a rouge state honestly, but not similar to that of North Korea though.

    Not to mention how would a surviving Apartheid South Africa respond to 9/11? Surely they wouldn't get involved in the World on Terror, but they surely would respond by making discriminatory laws against Muslims as well as prohibiting Muslims (including those from Bosnia and Albania) from immigrating or visiting South Africa.

    Honestly it is tough to say what a surviving Apartheid South Africa would be like in the 2000's and the 2010's.
     
  9. Marius Member Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2004
    Why would they make discriminatory laws against Muslims? For all apartheid SA's faults people were free to practice their religion. Indeed The Satanic Verses was banned in apartheid SA because it offended the Muslim community.

    And I'm not sure it would really have been a paradise for the alt-right etc - remember there were many whites opposed to apartheid who thought the system was fucked. They wouldn't let the likes of Milo and Alex Jones have an easy ride if they were to come to SA.
     
  10. Livius wannabe Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2015
    Indeed. They had enough enemies already!

    Plus, did they even need to? I thought most Muslims belonged to some non-European ethnic category.
     
  11. thatsbunkers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2018
    They would be “Coloured” or Indian depending on where they’re from
     
  12. Marius Member Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2004
    Yes, most Muslims are either of Asian or mixed-race descent.
     
  13. Marius Member Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2004
    Well the vast majority will be from South Africa so that doesn't help.
     
  14. thatsbunkers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2018
    I mean where their family is from.
     
  15. Marius Member Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2004
    Their families will also be South African, I daresay.
     
  16. FillyofDelphi Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2017
    Which is my point. Get there, and the answer becomes "The foreseeable future, and an unforeseeable extent beyond"
     
  17. thatsbunkers Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2018
    Is Botha not having a stroke so de Klerk doesn’t come to power a possible POD of extending apartheid till today?
     
  18. Noscoper Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2015
    Location:
    Internet
    One way to get around the sanctions could be a great power willing to sell arms ,invest and protect from the worse of the sanctions similar to the relationship between China and North Korea or Sudan.
     
  19. goalieboy82 New Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2018
    i think it could have lasted into the mid or late 1990's. also what if Nelson Mandela had died in the 1980's.
     
  20. ASUKIRIK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2018
    Location:
    Semarang
    Fun fact, Arabs, Iranian, and Pakistani descent often actually pass for "White" in late 19th / early 20th South Africa. (provided they do belong to the subgroup with Aryan / Caucasian looks)

    Just ask Gandhi while he was at South Africa.