How long could apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia last with a major foreign backer

How long could apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia last with a major foreign backer either one that is neutral to there racial policies or supportive of it

Would they be able to last into the modern day

would south africa at some point collapse into civil war
 
How long could apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia last with a major foreign backer either one that is neutral to there racial policies or supportive of it

Would they be able to last into the modern day

would south africa at some point collapse into civil war

With a willing backer they could last indefinitely, both had a wealth of natural resources and in South Africa’s Case a large, indigenous arms industry that was able to provide everything except fast jets and naval ships. It was the defeat of the SAAF over Angola that is credited with making leading figures in Pretoria realise that they couldn’t last out much longer. If they’re able to keep fielding modern fighters then the hardliners will continue to hold sway.

As for a civil war, it’s very easy to happen, perhaps Mandela dies in prison or is assassinated by a white extremist as Chris Hani was and everything collapses.
 
I sorta agree wtih The Oncoming Storm, except for one caveat. Now in theory they could indeed last indefinitely with a major power to back them. The DPRK is still around after all.
However what couldn't last indefinitely in the face of sanctions of most of the world exept one major power backing them is the living standards of the Whites. As those plummet -> more Whites emigrate -> Demographics swing even more against remaining Whites -> living standards (not just wealth also safety matters for personal comfort) decline more-> rinse, repeat -> somethings going to give eventually.

The PRC might be big enough to work not only as a sponsor for military equipment, but also as a trade parters and middle-man to get around sanctions. Plus provide non-African immigrants. The "small problem" with this scenario is Apartheid. In order to survive they'd have to take "pragmatic villainy" to new levels and pretty much not only in law, but also in fact make Asians equal to Whites, as well as be willing to accept hundreds of thousands of non-White immigrants.
In other words like the old quandary about for the Nazis to implements policies, that would allow them to win WW2, they'd have to stop being Nazis, in TTL for the South Africans to preserve minority rule, have to stop being racist dicks.
 
RW Johnson wrote in original edition of "How long can South Africa survive" that Apartheid would fall if/when South Africa lost access to global markets and capital escaped the country.

If there was a foreign backer willing to foot the bill, then South African and Rhodesia might sustain North Korea style isolation for years maybe even decades, but the cost would be ever increasing white flight as indeed happened in the last years of Rhodesia. Like the east-germans, the white educated english speakers would find it easy and tempting just to emigrate.

My Stetson-Harrison estimate is that ever more radical Apartheid goverments would play a game of musical chairs until 2000 and then just collapse.
 
The two powers most likely to support SA are the UK and the USA. If the UK is the patron, Apartheid could limp on a little longer, but it would end - IMO later in the 90s. If the USA were the patron, I think SA could hold out indefinitely.

It was the defeat of the SAAF over Angola that is credited with making leading figures in Pretoria realise that they couldn’t last out much longer.

That is an interesting tidbit!

fasquardon
 
However what couldn't last indefinitely in the face of sanctions of most of the world exept one major power backing them is the living standards of the Whites.
Couldn't they use the money from mining in a similar fashion to how the gulf states use their oil money

but also in fact make Asians equal to Whites, as well as be willing to accept hundreds of thousands of non-White immigrants.
They did count Japanese and Korean businessmen as honorary whites and why would hundreds of thousands of Chinese move to south Africa ?
 
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What if ATL apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia got all Machiavellian by pragmatically making East Asians and Southeast Asians (and possibly even the Coloureds) equal to whites in order to gain the backing of say India or China (whether OTL PRC or ATL Nationalists), thereby subsequently encouraging extremists from the Black majority to target them in the event of a civil war as a contingency for them to remain loyal to apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia (basically similar to other OTL civil wars both past and present where a hostile majority is ruled over by a minority or coalition of minorites)?

It is my limited understanding that both OTL India and China have a gender imbalance with males outnumbering females by a significant margin, now what if both apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia could use that to their advantage by encouraging immigration and investment from foreign backers such as India and China?
 
One of Ralph Peter's novels, the War in 2020, had Japan providing technical support to South Africa as a way to secure access to raw materials in central Africa. I think part of this was extensive mechanization to reduce the need for black manual labor in agriculture, mining, and industry. The apartheid system would probably be significantly more sustainable if the South Africans could confine more blacks to the bantustans rather than having to deal with black ghettos on the outskirts of nominally white cities.
 
apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia could use that to their advantage by encouraging immigration
Wasn't the National Party opposed large scale immigration due to fears of losing Afrikaner political dominance and that immigrates would ally themselves with the English population
 

Manman

Banned
They would survive to the present day. With backing they would be able to keep themselves together and improve their country. Also while sanctions seem like they would last forever pragmatism and simple apathy would eventually mean those sanctions are lifted or ignored. I mean most nations ignore what a nation is doing if it benefits it. Also the African nations might start going against each other as competing claims and wanting to become the dominant power in Africa means that they would eventually work together in a pragmatic sense.
 
How much help would a friendly Angola and Mozambique be to apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia

Ian Smith, the Prime Minister of Rhodesia during the Bush War, said that if Salazar, the head of Portugal's government during the Estado Novo, had lived another 10 years then Rhodesia would have survived. By that he meant that Salazar's extended life would have preserved Portuguese colonial rule in Angola and Mozambique, the latter of which was host to anti-Rhodesian rebels and allowed them to conduct cross-border raids against Rhodesian targets.

340px-RhodesiaAllies1975.png


As this map shows, with Mozambique remaining Portuguese Rhodesia's strategic situation is vastly improved compared to OTL. South Africa would also not have to worry about the war in Angola, which as has already been stated was a serious issue and probably expedited the fall of Apartheid.

In regards to the OP I think the answer depends on who the backer is. Obviously, all major communist countries are out. The UK's policy positions in Southern Africa were what created Rhodesia in the first place, so I don't see them being the backer without altering the situation entirely. If we're sticking with generally OTL countries, then France could be an option. IIRC France was one of the only countries besides Portugal and South Africa to abstain or vote against the UN motion sanctioning Rhodesia. Perhaps if France was a bit more committed to its own colonial empire in Africa this could result in increased support of the other colonial/white governments.

Alternate powers which could support SA/Rhodesia would include: A Japan that wins/doesn't fight in WW2 and looks towards Africa for more resources. This isn't that far fetched given the cooperation between Japan and South Africa in OTL. An alternate China, perhaps one where the Communists are defeated and the Nationalists are looking to expand their own sphere of influence, could be a patron to SA/Rhodesia.
 
if Salazar, the head of Portugal's government during the Estado Novo, had lived another 10 years then Rhodesia would have survived. By that he meant that Salazar's extended life would have preserved Portuguese colonial rule in Angola and Mozambique, the latter of which was host to anti-Rhodesian rebels and allowed them to conduct cross-border raids against Rhodesian targets.
Would Portugal been able to exploit Angola's oil wealth if they have had hold on for 10 years and would oil wealth have helped by covering the cost of war and buying off armed groups and/or recruiting mercenaries ?
 
Would Portugal been able to exploit Angola's oil wealth if they have had hold on for 10 years and would oil wealth have helped by covering the cost of war and buying off armed groups and/or recruiting mercenaries ?

It would certainly help. However, Portugal depended on foreign oil companies to do most of the offshore oil extraction AFAIK. If Portugal, like SA/Rhodesia, had a powerful foreign backer and Angola remained generally peaceful then we could see more extensive oil extraction earlier on. It really has the potential to shake things up in Southern Africa.
 
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