How Long Could a Conventional 1980s WW3 Actually Last?

How long could World War III circa 1985 - 1987 actually last? Most estimates I’ve seen limit the duration of the conflict to somewhere between two weeks to maybe two months, as production would not be able to replace the massive amount of equipment that would be lost during the opening weeks of the war.

A few assumptions going in:

1. No use of nuclear weapons by major powers.
2. All countries involved have had roughly one year of sufficient warning to prepare for war (moving troops around, tooling up factories for production, etc.)
3. War will not stop until one side or another achieves victory.
4. Victory for NATO & cobelligerents is defined primarily as defeating a Warsaw Pact invasion of Western Europe and limiting expansion of Soviet influence elsewhere; conversely, victory for the Warsaw Pact is defined as establishing Soviet dominance of Eurasia by conquering Western Europe to the French border, limiting the influence of the United States as much as possible, and (in scenario 2) neutering the People’s Republic of China as a military force
5. Aside from the “no nukes” rule, the war cannot be prolonged by artificial means, such as limiting combat to a certain area or extended ceasefires that break down.

Two scenarios to work with:

Scenario 1 - “Limited” War: NATO vs Warsaw Pact only. Hostilities largely “limited” to a ground war in Europe and Turkey, with worldwide naval hostilities. Everyone else sits around eating popcorn and watches the giants try to kill one another.

Scenario 2 - Total War:
Everyone with a beef with someone decides to have it out once war breaks between the United States and the Soviet Union. The great armies of NATO and the Warsaw Pact do battle in Western Europe. China joins the war on the side of NATO, invading Vietnam and clashing with the USSR along the Sino-Soviet border. The LACOMs raise hell in Central and South America. The US and Cuba fight it out in the Gulf of Mexico. The Middle East is set aflame as the Arab-Israeli conflicts, the Lebanese Civil War, the Iran-Iraq war, etc. are all absorbed into the worldwide conflict. Africa, too, erupts into warfare as Egypt and Libya clash, the Front Line States invade South Africa, etc. The ANZACs and Japan are drawn into the mess, North Korea invades South Korea, and India declares on both China and Pakistan. Et cetera, et cetera; basically every power that could have been drawn into a Third World War is.
 

SsgtC

Banned
By 1985, it's a ROFL-curbstomp for NATO against the WARPAC in any war that stays conventional. If the USSR launches an attack on NATO then without nuclear weapons, it gets stopped cold at the IGB. Same story at sea. The Red Navy will cease to exist shortly after the start of the war. Therefore, for the USSR to have a chance at "winning," the war will go nuclear with the first shots fired.
 

Wallet

Banned
If both sides had a year warning, every group in the world is going to try and work things out peacefully to avoid war because of the fear of nukes. No one wants war. There would be extensive efforts from the UN and neutral nations. There would be Peace fractions in the politiburo and president congress/cabinet in US.

It’s not just military losses. The American people were getting used to prosperity. Greed for cheap consumer goods and electronics shall fueled by credit. Walmart was starting to get big. A war would jepodize that prosperity
 
Most estimates I’ve seen limit the duration of the conflict to somewhere between two weeks to maybe two months,

Can't remember the reference but I think it was discovered that ordnance and other consumables expenditure was much higher than expected in conflicts like the first Gulf War. On that basis plus unprecedented amounts of attrition on both sides the war lasting two weeks might be very optimistic.
 
If you give NATO a year to prepare readiness, they'll probably win the war. Strategic surprise would be very important for the Warsaw Pact. If you were looking for ways to extend the conflict, maybe the Warsaw Pact could get deep into West Germany, but then get bogged down. However, if they're successful in shutting down the Atlantic, similar to what they did in the beginning of Red Storm Rising, you could hurt NATO's chances at pushing them back. So you'd have a situation where NATO doesn't want to sue for peace and lose West Germany, but have trouble getting troops and equipment across the Atlantic.
 
Depends what year of the 1980s, and if there's a year's preparation time that means U.S. and British REFORGER divisions are already on the continent, likely means full mobilization of the National Guard and Territorial Army, maybe even more than that with the U.S. Army Reserve training fresh divisions (we know they had duplicate equipment sets for units scheduled for REFORGER). All of this means an absolute beat down if hostilities actually commence, but I doubt it since the USSR would never want to go to war under such disadvantageous circumstances.
 
The global economy would be able to support a conventional war of four to six months between NATO and WARPAC, though it would be shorter if it spread significantly to the Far East (mostly China). The most likely outcome after that timespan would be a collapse of the Soviet economy immediately followed by the Eastern European countries pulling out. If the Soviets are still going by then, you might see a growing peace faction in the UK and France that might be able to force a ceasefire. If the US somehow gets expelled from Europe (the only real possibility of that happening is through political events in Western Europe, not Soviet military action), the war could probably continue at sea almost indefinitely.
 
The global economy would be able to support a conventional war of four to six months between NATO and WARPAC

That's assuming that NATO would be incapable of converting their economies for total war, I'm willing to bet within 4-6 months they will have done so, though many sophisticated munitions may be out of stock for a few weeks/months. Whether the Soviet economy could manage that is certainly less clear, and I venture to guess the answer would be no without major inflation and impoverishment.
 
If it's about equipment, wars can always be fought with knifes as long as the other side is also using knifes
 
NATO estimated they had two weeks of stocks on hand. Expenditure projections from other wars of the 80's and 90's, which all still paled compared to what a Third World War involved, indicate they were optimistic. The Soviets estimated they had ammunition to last for about a month were more realistic, but still seem to have fallen way short of the mark and therefore they'd probably still run out faster then one would expect. Realistically, you'd probably see stuff like ammo and fighter jets running short for everyone after the very first week. A year's preparation could probably drag that out to, say, a couple of months.

That's assuming that NATO would be incapable of converting their economies for total war, I'm willing to bet within 4-6 months they will have done so, though many sophisticated munitions may be out of stock for a few weeks/months. Whether the Soviet economy could manage that is certainly less clear, and I venture to guess the answer would be no without major inflation and impoverishment.

Overoptimistic. The Soviet industry was built specifically for rapid mobilization and hence involved a lot of dual-use set-ups that were inefficient for peacetime economics, such as deliberately leaving unused factory space available for military machine tools. There's a Russian joke about a man who keeps very slowly stealing parts for a cradle from the cradle factory he works at for an expected baby. After a month or so, he has all the parts and starts assembling them. After some hours, he comes down the stairs and says to his wife: "I don't get it. No matter how I put everything together I still get a machine gun". But even the Soviets expected, based on their WW2 experience, that it would take more then 6 months to really crank up war production from a scratch start.

A 1980s WW3 is really gonna be a "come as you are" war.

If it's about equipment, wars can always be fought with knifes as long as the other side is also using knifes

If everyone were to run out at the exact same time, sure. But it's rather much more likely that one side or the other runs out of something vital first and hence suffers a catastrophic defeat that see's the frontlines shift between 500 and a 1,000 kilometers.
 
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NATO estimated they had two weeks of stocks on hand. The Soviets estimated they had ammunition to last for about a month.

No, that’s just what they had on hand already in theater, that’s not representative of total munitions available in the event of war.

The U.S. would just order a ton of contracts from the military industrial complex, some things would take longer to replenish than others as I mention, but the tanks, basic missiles, ammunition, etc, these would be rolling out as the government procures all necessary raw materials and puts the U.S. economy into a full state of war. The Soviets are a state economy so they have their own preparations.

Only thing that’s certain is it will be ridiculously expensive to maintain operations each week, but even the Soviets should be able to produce the necessary tank rounds and small arms munition if nothing else.
 
No, that’s just what they had on hand already in theater, that’s not representative of total munitions available in the event of war.

As I was discussing there what they'd have in more realistic spiral to war (ie: only a few months of warning at best) then what the OP described, the two numbers are virtually identical. A year's preparation would obviously increase the number out, but probably only to several months. Although in that case, it does mean that one side or the other is probably gonna run out of stuff to shoot the ammo with before they run out of ammo.
 
By early to late mid-80s I'd expect soviet success and occupation of west-germany, benelux and scandinavia after a few weeks, with the soviets most likely stopping at the french border. The technology advantage simply wasn't there yet and Soviets had every other imaginable advantage at their side in terms of numbers, doctrine, logistics, political response and preparation. The problem is what happens afterwards with the occupation, international reaction and continued medium intensity warfare with the US.

The strain could either fortify the soviet population and ensure the continued survival of the USSR or shatter it. I'm inclined to believe the former though. Even if living conditions in the USSR would deteriorate, the perceived external threat and victories against it would most likely overcome this.
 
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By early to late mid-80s I'd expect soviet success and occupation of west-germany, benelux and scandinavia after a few weeks, with the soviets most likely stopping at the french border. The technology advantage simply wasn't there yet and Soviets had every other imaginable advantage at their side in terms of numbers, doctrine, logistics, political response and preparation. The problem is what happens afterwards with the occupation, international reaction and continued medium intensity warfare with the US.

The strain could either fortify the soviet population and ensure the continued survival of the USSR or shatter it. I'm inclined to believe the former though. Even if living conditions in the USSR would deteriorate, the perceived external threat and victories against it would most likely overcome this.
I don't agree. NATO took technologic edge from 1982nd year. Soviet moral, starting from 1979, was quite weak. I doubt about USSR victory in, lets say, 1986. USSR had biggest chance in 1979-1982
Also, do you playing W:RD? A bit offtopic, forgive me
 

Toraach

Banned
The technology advantage simply wasn't there yet and Soviets had every other imaginable advantage at their side in terms of numbers, doctrine, logistics, political response and preparation. The problem is what happens afterwards with the occupation, international reaction and continued medium intensity warfare with the US.
Those advantages you mentioned, I'm not sure if they were at all, or to what extenct. Some of them are probably well settled myths. Numbers seems to be one of them. And logists and doctrine, I don't think it was that good. In the topic about the possible nuclear war during the Cuban Crisis some argued that a conventional superiority of the Warsaw Pact during that period was a myth. It is possible that during 80s it was the same.

Well, I'm writing a short tale for you, how this war migh look from a perspective of a common, polish constript soldier.

It is the year 1985. He is called Andrzej, he is 20. He now is a soldier in the 12 mechanized division. Now he is during his second year of the service, so he is now "wicek" in a hierarchy of Fala, that's a polish contrepart of russian/soviet Dedovshchina, it means that he isn't bullied any more, but he bullies others. Morale in his unit is low, soldiers hate their duty, as a lost time in life, they hate professional cadre, and whole military athmosphere. Any political training is a joke during that period in Poland. Noone believes political officers, conscripts have seen the martial law and how all country is under the mist of hopelessness and stagnation. And now one day their duties and tasks become harder and they are put constantly on drills and alarms. One day in the middle of the night it happens. They are ordered to leave barracs and the war is started. Morale falls even lower. They just don't want to fith, they don't have anything for fight, noone believes in tales spread by political corp about "fashists-revanshist from the West Germany who wants to take back the Recklaimed Lands and their masters from Washington". For some days there don't happens much, Andrzej's division is transfered west. Finally they cross the intergerman border, and from they can see signs of war, destroyed vehicles, burnt houses etc. But they still have not got any action. Finally it happens. 12th mechanized division takes part in the assault on Kiel or Kilonia how it is called in Polish. Cassualities aren't high, the Bundeswehr retreats. And authorities bless that the Poles are facing Germans, not Americans in that area. Cecause when further south soldier of the polish 4th mechnized division faced american lead counterattack during fighting around Hamburg, there were a lot of desertions, the most drastic situation was when soldiers in one company just shoot their officers and surrended to the americans, who in turn were totally suprised by that. Back to Andrzej. He has some luck, intemidentialy after he got aut from his BMP-1 it was destroyed by a MILAN missle. Luckily the Germans retreat, and the city is now in polish hands. There is need some time to rests, bring further logistics and organize conquered territory, but something happens. When the Polish soldiers see tha there isn't enemy around, and no shells, bullets flying on them, they look around, and they see a city, which is much diffrent from gray communist towns they know, even after seeing some combat, Kiel looks better in their eyes. They realize that there are a plenty of shops. Well, the Germans kept the city under control to the end, police worked close with the military, so there weren't looting, and widespread panick, and a time between the retreat and coming of the Poles was too short for widespread looting to happen. But it happens now. Andrzej is one of them. He just forgots all horrors of war and that he was nearly killed. It isn't important now, when he loots a big store with a name Kaufland, still full of many goods, many of them he doesn't even know what they are, it is a diffrent world from what he knows from home. And the alcohol deparment is still full of various bottles. He thinks, how fancy those bottles might look, they still contain the same spirit as in Poland and grabs some bottles of vodka for later, and a lot of cigarets. He knows they are the best currency now! But later before he will go drunk, he with friends loot a shop with consumer electronics, those radios are so small and cool, every device looks better and more sophisticated than products of the eastern block. Soldiers are happy, but their command isn't. For two days the control over two regiments of 12th division in Kiel is lost. The End.

I think that it is possible that in "liberated" towns and cities in Western Europe soldiers from the WarPack might just go mad with looting. Of course not in all of them, in areas of heavy fighting no, but on some secondrated directions it is probably, and especially for units from rears, which don't except to see any combat. Even during 1WW the German Spring Offensive (which happened exactly 100 years ago, I reccomend an awesome youtube channel the great war about it) the german soldiers which broken frough english lines looted in french villages, and control over them was broken for some time.
 
Those advantages you mentioned, I'm not sure if they were at all, or to what extenct. Some of them are probably well settled myths. Numbers seems to be one of them. And logists and doctrine, I don't think it was that good. In the topic about the possible nuclear war during the Cuban Crisis some argued that a conventional superiority of the Warsaw Pact during that period was a myth. It is possible that during 80s it was the same.

Well, I'm writing a short tale for you, how this war migh look from a perspective of a common, polish constript soldier.

It is the year 1985. He is called Andrzej, he is 20. He now is a soldier in the 12 mechanized division. Now he is during his second year of the service, so he is now "wicek" in a hierarchy of Fala, that's a polish contrepart of russian/soviet Dedovshchina, it means that he isn't bullied any more, but he bullies others. Morale in his unit is low, soldiers hate their duty, as a lost time in life, they hate professional cadre, and whole military athmosphere. Any political training is a joke during that period in Poland. Noone believes political officers, conscripts have seen the martial law and how all country is under the mist of hopelessness and stagnation. And now one day their duties and tasks become harder and they are put constantly on drills and alarms. One day in the middle of the night it happens. They are ordered to leave barracs and the war is started. Morale falls even lower. They just don't want to fith, they don't have anything for fight, noone believes in tales spread by political corp about "fashists-revanshist from the West Germany who wants to take back the Recklaimed Lands and their masters from Washington". For some days there don't happens much, Andrzej's division is transfered west. Finally they cross the intergerman border, and from they can see signs of war, destroyed vehicles, burnt houses etc. But they still have not got any action. Finally it happens. 12th mechanized division takes part in the assault on Kiel or Kilonia how it is called in Polish. Cassualities aren't high, the Bundeswehr retreats. And authorities bless that the Poles are facing Germans, not Americans in that area. Cecause when further south soldier of the polish 4th mechnized division faced american lead counterattack during fighting around Hamburg, there were a lot of desertions, the most drastic situation was when soldiers in one company just shoot their officers and surrended to the americans, who in turn were totally suprised by that. Back to Andrzej. He has some luck, intemidentialy after he got aut from his BMP-1 it was destroyed by a MILAN missle. Luckily the Germans retreat, and the city is now in polish hands. There is need some time to rests, bring further logistics and organize conquered territory, but something happens. When the Polish soldiers see tha there isn't enemy around, and no shells, bullets flying on them, they look around, and they see a city, which is much diffrent from gray communist towns they know, even after seeing some combat, Kiel looks better in their eyes. They realize that there are a plenty of shops. Well, the Germans kept the city under control to the end, police worked close with the military, so there weren't looting, and widespread panick, and a time between the retreat and coming of the Poles was too short for widespread looting to happen. But it happens now. Andrzej is one of them. He just forgots all horrors of war and that he was nearly killed. It isn't important now, when he loots a big store with a name Kaufland, still full of many goods, many of them he doesn't even know what they are, it is a diffrent world from what he knows from home. And the alcohol deparment is still full of various bottles. He thinks, how fancy those bottles might look, they still contain the same spirit as in Poland and grabs some bottles of vodka for later, and a lot of cigarets. He knows they are the best currency now! But later before he will go drunk, he with friends loot a shop with consumer electronics, those radios are so small and cool, every device looks better and more sophisticated than products of the eastern block. Soldiers are happy, but their command isn't. For two days the control over two regiments of 12th division in Kiel is lost. The End.

I think that it is possible that in "liberated" towns and cities in Western Europe soldiers from the WarPack might just go mad with looting. Of course not in all of them, in areas of heavy fighting no, but on some secondrated directions it is probably, and especially for units from rears, which don't except to see any combat. Even during 1WW the German Spring Offensive (which happened exactly 100 years ago, I reccomend an awesome youtube channel the great war about it) the german soldiers which broken frough english lines looted in french villages, and control over them was broken for some time.
Youre Polish?
 
@Toraach, I especially liked the visit to Kaufland. Visiting shops in West Germany was inevitable for the WARPAC conscripts and would have created very difficult situations for many of them. You've been indoctrinated into thinking the Eastern Bloc is prosperous and progressive and the Imperialists are always oppressing the working class. Then you see a typical West German storefront with hams (IIRC Krakus ham was much missed in Poland because it was all exported to the West or saved for the elites), Marlboros, Sony electronics... In practice, really, the WARPAC would have to confine troops to their camps as much as possible to avoid fraternization and exploration of the Western economy (which would take the form of looting in all likelihood). I expect looting would be much the same as in WW2: the officers would disapprove officially, but the enlisted men would invariably spend a few days looting newly liberated towns.
 

Toraach

Banned
Youre Polish?
I am. Jam jest.
@ToraachYou've been indoctrinated into thinking the Eastern Bloc is prosperous and progressive and the Imperialists are always oppressing the working class.
Well maybe there was some indoctrination, but how effective it was in 80s? I pressume that you are not from the WarPac, because this sentence. I can tell you something how people thought and behaved, and what isn't usually contained in western books. In Poland since '56 the communist propaganda became less and less effective, there was not a widespread indoctrination, despite official statements and such, people were mostly left alone, and allowed to enrich themselves in means possible in this economic system. They just wanted to live in peace, and lived that. Most popular protests were only when the economic situation was bad, and the political oposition was an elitary movement. Even after the martial law, when in the country was a gloomy and grimdark atmosphere, people just wanted to live, there was some oposition, and the Party wasn't loved, but most people weren't interesting in politics, they wanted to eat. They were angry, because economy was in a bad shape. Noone believed in the goverment propaganda, about that prosperity and woking class. The country wasn't totally closed, since 70s - "Gierek's gilded age" Poland was relativly open for the western culture, it was possble (although not very easy, but easier than before) to trip to the west, western movies were in cinemas and TV, western goods known from special stores Pewex, and from black market or care packages from families in the west. Just any normal polish man knewn at that period how poor and grim was the reality of real socialism, and the west seemed to be a paradise. I don't know much about other countries, but example in Eastern Germany was possible to see western german TV, so people knew from this source how their life looked compared to their brethen.
 
Historically, the experience of conscript soldiers on the soil of otherwise more wealthy countries has tended to suggest their reaction would be one of jealousy and resentment towards the enemy for having such wealth rather then disillusionment towards their own cause for failing to provide it.

As for the effects of indoctrination... well, results were mixed. In their political sessions, the Communists did manage to cram a lot of indoctrination into their two-year conscripts. For the average Soviet conscript the political sessions were mostly treated as a period for the soldiers to goof off, so much of the high minded communist ideology went over their heads. On the other hand, the political officers did manage to pass along some basic attitudes, the most dangerous of which for NATO was an unreasoning fear of the world outside the Communist Bloc.
 
Considering that the whole Eastern Bloc fell like tenpins the moment they knew that the Red Army wasn't going to stop them if they revolt I have severe doubts on how loyal any non-Soviet troops would be. I would question some of the Soviet ones as well. They certainly couldn't trust the Balts.
 
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