Even accounting for human tendency to muck up, even accounting for the ridiculous overconfidence in the effectiveness of strategic bombing, I have to think Pike can't happen. It's mind-numbingly stupid. I don't say this out of an inherent British bias; I'm quite prepared to speculate about Churchill screwing up in one way or another. But this one just doesn't seem plausible. It has all the hallmarks of a plan someone came up with during the phony war when they were really hoping for some action, but which at some point or another would have -- and did -- get killed off by political decision-makers. Kind of like -- dare I say it -- Sea Lion.
Moreover the window is quite narrow. Either it has to be accelerated and done before the invasion of France, or there's a second narrow window between the Battle of Britain when British politicians are going to be too distracted to make this attempt and the invasion of the Soviet Union, which makes it temporarily irrelevant. Nor is June 22 the end of that window. The more likely British intelligence thinks a German invasion is, the less likely the British government is to attack the Soviet Union.
All of that said, it's certainly true that if somehow one can cause a major rift between the western allies and the Soviet Union that precludes wartime cooperation, this is going to significantly lengthen the war and change the nature of the postwar peace.
Moreover the window is quite narrow. Either it has to be accelerated and done before the invasion of France, or there's a second narrow window between the Battle of Britain when British politicians are going to be too distracted to make this attempt and the invasion of the Soviet Union, which makes it temporarily irrelevant. Nor is June 22 the end of that window. The more likely British intelligence thinks a German invasion is, the less likely the British government is to attack the Soviet Union.
All of that said, it's certainly true that if somehow one can cause a major rift between the western allies and the Soviet Union that precludes wartime cooperation, this is going to significantly lengthen the war and change the nature of the postwar peace.