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Just a thread to see what are the alternatives you propose for a TL where Franz Ferdinand was not assassinated in Sarajevo in 1914. We will compare them and debate. Here is my proposal, please debate.

Franz Ferdinand succeeds Franz Joseph in 1916 and adopts a federal system of government, giving equal status to all the peoples of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, much to the dismay of Hungarians. Under the SPD, Germany becomes more democratic, an earlier welfare state. Two more Balkanic Wars blow out, Serbia taking Macedonia from Bulgaria, dividing Albania between Greece and Serbia and Serbia finally annex Montenegro. Czarevich Alexis dies of a fatal hemorrhage, and melancholy-stricken Nikolai II let the Duma take a greater role in Russian inner politics. The Spanish Flu remains contained to Asia: the weak Emperor Yoshihito dies of the disease, bringing earlier to power the generals who rule the Regency, and plagued central China is quickly overtaken by Sun Yat-Sen, who takes advantage of the situation.

In 1922-1923, a Russian general (Kornilov?) takes power in a coup, reacting to the ongoing democratization; in the Civil War that ensues, Finland declares independance, and Germany announces its decision to preventily occupy large parts of the Baltic region, Belarus and Ukraine. France and Great Britain react by declaring war on Germany; on the Eastern Front, German forces advance quickly in a Russian territory torn apart by the civil war, while French troops are divided in Belgium, Lorraine and the Alps (Italy having decided to side with the Central Powers), and are beaten after two fears of fighting; the British government signs a separate peace with the Germans, abandoning France: Northern France is occupied, Belgium is divided between Flanders, Wallonia and the Free City of Brussels, Belgian Congo and French colonial lands from Togoland to Kamerum join the German Colonial Empire, Japan occupies French Indochina, Russia agrees to relinquish some of their territories.

So, here are my wonderings:

-USA and Great Britain are both isolated, USA trying to have ties with the German dominant power, and Britain concentrating on its colonial empire: about Britain, I had been imagining that they could come closer to Germany, and go more to the left, the social inequalities becoming more evidencied without any great victory to rejoice. Can an economic crisis occur in these countries? Would the US finally have some interest into European affairs?

-Occupied France would finally pay off German forces, and after very hard political instability, nationalist right would come to power, not in a fascist way, but more of a limited democracy/authoritarian state way. What about Italy, that still experiences political instability (in spite of the annexation of Corsica and Savoy)? Could D'Annunzio seize power in a coup and establish a fascist-like state?

-Germany is now becoming a welfare state, but its economy is focused on its newly conquered Eastern territories. Could an economic crisis strike Germany? What political influence the aging Kaiser (and not discredited by the lasting War) could have? And could Germany stand in the buffer states it created, such as Poland?

-Would the federal solution save Austria-Hungary, or is it deemed to explode? And so is the Ottoman Empire? Could Serbia become the dominant force in the Balkans?

-If the military wins in Russia, who would be the next providential man and Great Dictator? Kornilov? Wrangel (I have contributed to Kaiserreich, after all!)? Kolchak? Tukhaychevsky? Has Russia a lot of chance to become a revanchist and fascist state?

-Now that Japan has control over the rubber of Indochina, would the thirst of ressources from both the military and the zaibatsus continue to be attracted by China? As I said earlier, in this scenario, mainland China is stablizing after the flu pandemic and the victories of Sun Yat-Sen; even if the Japanese manage to take control more efficiently and earlier of China, would there still be tensions with the United States over the control of the Pacific and other resources?
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