How long can Republicans hold the Black vote?

[Snowstalker]

When freedmen gained the right to vote with the 15th Amendment, they overwhelmingly backed the Republican Party for obvious reasons. While most of them lost their right to vote in the South when Reconstruction ended, Black voters in the North continued to support the Republican Party as the Party of Lincoln, though Bryan and Wilson (in 1912, before his re-segregation of the federal government) made some inroads into the bloc. The tipping point came in 1936, as the vast benefits which the New Deal brought to African-Americans in industrial Northern cities (less so in the South, where many programs were subject to racial discrimination) led to a lurch towards the Democratic Party, and no Republican presidential nominee with the possible exception of Eisenhower has come even close to winning back a majority of the Black vote. Virginia).

Was there any plausible way to prevent the Republican Party from losing its grip on the Black vote? Could the Republican alliance between Black voters and the Yankee Protestant majority have survived past the 1920s against the Democratic Solid South/ethnic-Catholic coalition?

 

[Red_Neptune]

Well, there's a few options:

- Ensure that a Democrat is in office during the Great Depression, although that might be ASB
- Ensure that someone like Garner, Smith, or maybe Baker wins the Democratic nomination in 1932, thereby preventing the New Deal
- Prevent the Great Migration - prior to this most African-Americans were concentrated in rural areas, a dynamic which tended to favor Republicans. Concentration of African-Americans in the cities was critical to flipping the black vote.
- Ensure that the 'socially conservative'-type politicians dominate the Democratic Party, while the moderate wing of the party retains control of the Republican Party & resists the entrenchment of Reaganite social conservatives

 

[David T]

Well, there's a few options:

- Ensure that a Democrat is in office during the Great Depression, although that might be ASB

Not at all: Just have Hughes win in 1916, and have there be a massive backlash against him in 1920, and the Democrats could dominate national politics in 1920-32..

 

[Deleted member 109224]

GOP wins in 1960 and puts through a Civil Rights Act instead. Upper middle class and southern blacks stick with the GOP going forward at the national level.

 

[sampleswift]

Maybe an earlier Civil Rights act/Voting Rights Act in the Eisenhower era?

 

[David T]

Maybe an earlier Civil Rights act/Voting Rights Act in the Eisenhower era?

African Americans were voting heavily Democratic for three decades before the civil rights act of 1964. If Ike had somehow gotten a stronger civil rights bill through Congress than that of 1957 (which would have been very difficult, given the filibuster)it would have been supported by northern Democrats though opposed by southern ones, and would not reverse the loyalty of African Americans in the North to the Democratic Party, which was based more on economic issues than civil rights. Indeed, Nixon took a stronger stand on the civil rights bill of 1957 than JFK but still overwhelmingly lost the Illinois First Congressional District--77.4%-22.0--and New York's 16th Congressional District.--77.1%-22.2%--in 1960. https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...up-in-american-politics.454831/#post-17809925 (These were easily the most heavily African American districts in the country, one being the heart of Chicago's South Side "black belt", the other being most of Harlem.)

 

[Jono]

Ensure that a Democrat is in office during the Great Depression, although that might be ASB

Not that ASB, just have the dopiest moron win the primaries by a stroke of luck and the dems will walk away with the vote and oh dear, there's a depression. Now the dems look bad. Although, a straight up ASB won't be as insulting to the reader as a stroke of luck. Maybe have a competent rep candidate suffer a scandal before November.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

What if Irvine Lenroot isnamed Harding's VP? As a progressive, could he push through enough reforms in the wake of Harding's death, especially after a 1928 victory, to show blacks he is willing to help the poor and treat blacks somewhat equally? (Coolidge had to announce he wasn't running, it didn't seem to many to be a bad thing if he ran, so I presume Lenroot would also not be seen to be breaking the 2-term tradition if he ran, since he'd served less than 2 years of Harding's term.)

So, Lenroot's moves beforehand and some help for the poor during the 1929-early '33 period turn the Depression into a bad recession, on the scale of the Panic of 1893. He'd seen to have been okay, but Democrats nominate Garner, because Progressives are blamed for the recession in the first place because, hey, that's what people do, find someone to blame.

Garneris a conservative, though, and while he doesn't roll things back as much as Wilson did, he's clearly seen as being agaisnt the thigns that are helping to country to recover. When the Panic's impact still is back, Republicans roar back in 1936 - especially becasue proinent Democrats abandon Garner.

Alf Landon or some other Republican who OTL supported some of the New Deal measures wins in 1936, and the Progressive Era is back, becasue people can see the impact the Garner malaise had on people. More importantly, as FDR - who abandoned the conservative Democrats - works behind the scenes with the GOP, part of his cousin Teddy, the military buildup starts in earnest as a way to further stoke the fires of recovery by getting people jobs.

Landon, let's say, wins his 2nd term in 1940, and is succeeded by the young Thomas Dewey, who is even more a champion of Civil Rights in the post-war era. This and 16 straight terms of Republicans lead to a Democrat winning in 1952, but one who is still somewhat moderate compared to the Dixiecrats. (Maybe it's the Democrats convicingIke to run even, or maybe Harry Truman makes enough of a name for himself he's a compromise candidate.) But, the Repubicans are seen as the party of helping the poor and of Civil Rights, with the Democrats very slowly recovering some of the black vote in the '50s, just not enough to get a majority because the Republicans held such big lead on them in the first place.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

PoD: FDR tabs Jimmy Byrnes for VP in 1944 instead of Truman. Byrnes succeeds FDR in 1945. He doesn't desegregate the armed forces, and blocks the civil rights plank at the 1948 DNC, but still gets renominated. With no hope of splitting even the Upper South, Dewey embraces rather soft-pedalling civil rights.

Dewey in his campaign makes rather aggressive pledges regarding civil rights - not only to attract black voters back to the GOP, but to win over the liberal Democrats steamrollered by Byrnes and the Dixiecrats at the DNC. He gets the endorsements of some prominent Democrats, among them Eleanor Roosevelt (!) and sweeps the rest of the country, outside the South.

[Butterfly impact in mid 1948: Coke Stevenson defeats Lyndon Johnson in the Texas Senate primary runoff.]

Dewey finds he is committed by his pledges, and is further provoked by threats from the KKK. (It reminds of his gang-buster years.) A Republican/northern Democrat coalition passes three major civil rights bills: anti-lynching legislation, a Voting Rights Act, and a Civil Rights Act comparable to OTL's 1964 CRA, but without the provisions applying to private accommodations. (Senate Dixiecrats filibuster the anti-lynching bill, which leads to the demise of the filibuster, thus enabling passage of the VRA and CRA.)

Black voters thereafter remain generally loyal to the Republican Party.