How Long can Long-Lasting Old World Contact the New World be Avoided?

We all know Vinland, but it didn't lead to prolonged contact between the Eastern and Western Hemispheres the same way Columbus' expeditions did. Some Japanese boats may have washed ashore on the West Coast of the US/Canada. And maybe there were fishermen who visited Newfoundland. But these didn't lead to a general knowledge of the Western Hemisphere in the East. Let's say Columbus' voyage doesn't happen or isn't successful. How long is it until someone else from the Europe, Africa, or Asia lands in the Americas and establishes lasting contact with the natives there?
 
@CELTICEMPIRE
With the development of naval technology in Europe, and the strong political motivation on Atlantic exploration (altough more south Atlantic, northern part isn't immune, partly out of North Sea-Baltic cod fishing and trade), you won't delay much a contact with Americas onger than the middle of the XVIth century at the very best.
 
Last edited:
@CELTICEMPIRE
With the development of naval technology in Europe, and the strong political motivation on Atlantic exploration (altough more south Atlantic, northern part isn't immune, partly out of North Sea-Baltic cod fishing and trade), you won't delay much a contact with Americas onger than the middle of the XVIth century at the very best.

So the POD would need to be long before 1492?
 
On end of 15th and early 16th century there was some independent expeditions so without Columbus you would get trans-atlantic connection only some years later.

You would need much earlier POD to delay connection much longer. Best would be surviving Byzantine, Mongols conquer Europe or worse Black Death. With these foundation and colonisation might be delayed to 17th century. Americas would be found accidentally sooner or latter.
 
So the POD would need to be long before 1492?
Indeed,: you could had an earlier discovery since the late XIVth century, and it only became more and more probable from there.
A weaker Arabo-Islamic world (or at least in its western and median regions) unable to sustain the Christian pressure in Mediterranean basin and Africa, including in its eastern parts, would be an interesting diversion, altough not a complete one (far from it, it could actually in time give an incitative to renew efforts in circumnavigating Africa).
 
Top