Lincoln's famous quote is that "I hope to have God on my side, but I must have Kentucky."
Kentucky of course managed to remain neutral for a few months during the ACW. The official period of neutrality ran from 20 May 1861 until Leonidas Polk, Lincoln's greatest ally in the South, invaded Kentucky and pushed it into the Union side.
Now, assuming that Leonidas Polk is out of commission for some reason (stopped a bullet, choked on a mouldy sausage, take your pick), how much longer can Kentucky remain neutral during the ACW? Kentucky was drifting into the Union camp anyway; the June congressional elections were an overwhelming victory for the Union. (Albeit with the winning margin improved because some Southern supporters boycotted the elections). But there was still some sentiment for remaining neutral, and the official neutrality remained in place even when there were unofficial violations (recruiting camps) by both sides.
Could Kentucky remain neutral for much longer? Would there be circumstances where the North violated its neutrality first? (Unlikely, since Lincoln was far too canny to authorise that, so it would probably only happen if someone acted without sanction.) What would be the consequences, if any, of Kentucky remaining neutral for a few more months?