How long can Japan remain Isolated ?

[Michel Van]

Short Explanation
During 1603 and 1868, Japan was kept Isolated from rest of world by the Tokugawa shogunate.
All Trade went over a Artificial island in Nagasaki with only partner Tokugawa shogunate allow: the Netherlands.
Until 1853 as US ships enter Edo Bay and It's Commodore M.C. Perry hand over a request of US government, "For opening Japan to foreign trade".
since the Tokugawa shogunate was unable to manage the situation let to chain reaction
were the shogunate was overthrown and Meji Restoration began were "medieval" Japan had to catching up 265 years of Technological progress in just 44 years.

But, What If Perry never enter Edo Bay but was send to China or Korea instead,
because the US government simply ignored the Japanese ?
How long can they remain Isolated ?

One: Internal problem
The Tokugawa shogunate face fraction like the Mitogaku
who wanted to reform, what let after 1853 to uprise and to Boshin-War 1868-1869.
Here the shogunate were defeated, the emperor put into power and Meji Restoration began.
of course Perry Visit was the catalyst for this Revolution, also the imported modern firearms used by the Mitogaku fraction.
Without modern firearms, the shogunate could have won the Boshin-War
And simply executed entirely the families of all conspirators. as a warning for other clans.
But even with this victory the Tokugawa shogunate must undergo reforms, to cope better with Visits of interferingly foreigners.

Two: If not USA in 1853, who Else ?
Sooner or later some of powers will try contact Japan and even force them military zu submit
one would Great Britain, the other Russia. but i not have any information over there Plans with Japan (need help here)
It would be quite Ironic, if Korea would send Cannon boats to Japan and force them to become a Korean colony...

Another idea could be a protectorate, were The Tokugawa shogunate make a deal with German Empire.
the German Imperial Nave looked for a Treaty port for there fleet in Pacific
OTL they found that in China Kiautschou (today Jiaozhou Bay) in 1896
but what if they found in The Tokugawa shogunate a partner in 1880s?
The Germans get a Treaty port at Japanese Coast separate from rest of Japan
For trading and military needs for Germans Fleet.
in exchange the German keep the other World powers away and they not intervene in Japanese affairs.

 

[Bakenellan]

UK and Russia conducted their own treaties with Japan roughly at the same time as US did, but neither were really interested in opening Japan. They just followed US initiative to not give them too much free hand in relations with Japan.

As for violent internal opposition, there was virtually none before Perry. There was a lot of dissatisfaction to be sure, but no one, I believe, seriously thought possible to overthrow the Shogunate. There might be various attempts to reform it, but without foreigners proving Shogunate weak and ineffective, people would likely to try to work from inside the system. It is also worth to note, that Sonno-Joi means "Revere the Emperor - Expel the Barbarians". They were strongly anti-foreign and turn against Bakufu government exactly because they were too timid to fight foreigners.

I suspect, Japan could last for a few decades more until either European Imperialism reached it for serious or indeed some of it's Asiatic neighbors modernize and try to expand like Japan did OTL.

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

The opening up of Japan was roughly the same time as the end of the Opium Wars and all those treaties, so Europe and America certainly had their eyes on the region. Honestly, probably not much longer than 1870, as eventually someone will get greedy and say "there's a place that hasn't left the middle ages. let's go and take its stuff"

- BNC

 

[Gloss]

UK and Russia conducted their own treaties with Japan roughly at the same time as US did, but neither were really interested in opening Japan. They just followed US initiative to not give them too much free hand in relations with Japan.

As for violent internal opposition, there was virtually none before Perry. There was a lot of dissatisfaction to be sure, but no one, I believe, seriously thought possible to overthrow the Shogunate. There might be various attempts to reform it, but without foreigners proving Shogunate weak and ineffective, people would likely to try to work from inside the system. It is also worth to note, that Sonno-Joi means "Revere the Emperor - Expel the Barbarians". They were strongly anti-foreign and turn against Bakufu government exactly because they were too timid to fight foreigners.

I suspect, Japan could last for a few decades more until either European Imperialism reached it for serious or indeed some of it's Asiatic neighbors modernize and try to expand like Japan did OTL.

Some of its Asian neighbour? That´s only Korea and China, and the former can´t expand into Japan realistically.

 

[raharris1973]

Japan could last for a few decades more until either European Imperialism reached it

Honestly, probably not much longer than 1870

Either of these two are still huge changes for 20th century history. This could conceivably result in Japan being colonized, or, more likely Japan pulling a Thailand, but perhaps unable to dominate Korea or Japan.

 

[water123]

Honestly, I think that a Colonized Japan TL would be fascinating, if just because Europe had played the Feudalism Game far longer than Japan had (the Shogunate system was only like 200 years old), and could "game the system" to the point of outcompeting local Dayimo or even eventually setting up a Japanese Raj.

 

[Michel Van]

Either of these two are still huge changes for 20th century history. This could conceivably result in Japan being colonized, or, more likely Japan pulling a Thailand, but perhaps unable to dominate Korea or Japan.

Interesting Analog
Thailand aka Siam in year 1855 remained Independent for two reasons:
1. Internal Reforms and Modernization
2. it serve as neutral Buffer state between Britain and French Colony, acknowledged by both Powers.

for first point The Tokugawa shogunate could made similar reforms.
but for second that's problem, it's large Islands in ocean

looking in some germans history books and wiki
seems Russia Empire was more interested in Manchuria and Korea and in control of sea of Japan, not the main Islands of Japan
yes there were conflict between Russia Empire and The Tokugawa shogunate, but that were clashes between Japanese locals and Russian Ship crews who try to attempted to breach Japan's isolation policy
except The 1861 Tsushima incident were the Russian try to take over island of Tsushima as bridgehead for Russian fleet for there expansion toward Korea.
here Japan demanded the British Empire for help and Russian retreat

 

[James XI]

Honestly, I think that a Colonized Japan TL would be fascinating, if just because Europe had played the Feudalism Game far longer than Japan had (the Shogunate system was only like 200 years old), and could "game the system" to the point of outcompeting local Dayimo or even eventually setting up a Japanese Raj.

Japan was feudal long before the Tokugawa Shogunate. Dating back at least to the Kamakura (Shogunate) period, ~ 1190.

 

[Tanc49]

If anyone non-English speaking gets to Japan it will be France.
They have Cochinchina around that time and the IIIrd Empire was big on Far-East colonies. It acted as defender of the Christians (its pretext for invading Vietnam) and that could be used in Japan as well.

They have the fleet right there because of the Opium wars and interest in creating a potential ring around the China Sea

 

[Nellaus]

Nagasaki Harbour Incident occurred in 1808, caused lasting changes in Nabeshima clan, whose responsibility was defending Nagasaki Harbor at the time. Nabeshima Naomasa (鍋島 直正 1815 – 1871) was the 10th and final daimyo of Saga Domain, he made a strong investment in the domain academy, researched western technology and built the first reverberatory furnace in Japan in 1852. He also sponsored the development of steam engines and steam-powered warships. In 1866, Nabeshima clan reverse engineered and copied Armstrong cannon by Saga armories. His army was used in the Meiji Restoration.

Illustrated Treatise on the Maritime Kingdoms was written by Wei Yuanin in 1843. These scrolls contain numerous maps and much geographical detail covering both the western and eastern hemispheres, and described about shipbuilding techniques and weapons production. Tokugawa shogunate learned about the global situation through Dutch, and these books were also introduced to Japan before the arrival of Perry in 1853.

So even without the intervention by Perry, Tokugawa shogunate would try to reform and some Daimyos researched about western technology in order to defend Japan from foreigners. Which country was Dutch friendly with at the time? For Tokugawa shogunate, her opinion has to matter somewhat.

 

[Chris Triangle]

If anyone non-English speaking gets to Japan it will be France.
They have Cochinchina around that time and the IIIrd Empire was big on Far-East colonies. It acted as defender of the Christians (its pretext for invading Vietnam) and that could be used in Japan as well.

They have the fleet right there because of the Opium wars and interest in creating a potential ring around the China Sea

Don't forget France's involvement in Korea at this tim. It was another example of that policy regarding missionary activity. They didn't commit to opening the country and put forward a half hearted expeition but they probably had the opportunity to force favorable concessions had they been more determined.

 

[Michel Van]

Nagasaki Harbour Incident occurred in 1808, caused lasting changes in Nabeshima clan, whose responsibility was defending Nagasaki Harbor at the time. Nabeshima Naomasa (鍋島 直正 1815 – 1871) was the 10th and final daimyo of Saga Domain, he made a strong investment in the domain academy, researched western technology and built the first reverberatory furnace in Japan in 1852. He also sponsored the development of steam engines and steam-powered warships. In 1866, Nabeshima clan reverse engineered and copied Armstrong cannon by Saga armories. His army was used in the Meiji Restoration.

Illustrated Treatise on the Maritime Kingdoms was written by Wei Yuanin in 1843. These scrolls contain numerous maps and much geographical detail covering both the western and eastern hemispheres, and described about shipbuilding techniques and weapons production. Tokugawa shogunate learned about the global situation through Dutch, and these books were also introduced to Japan before the arrival of Perry in 1853.

So even without the intervention by Perry, Tokugawa shogunate would try to reform and some Daimyos researched about western technology in order to defend Japan from foreigners. Which country was Dutch friendly with at the time? For Tokugawa shogunate, her opinion has to matter somewhat.

So means if the shogunate survive some how, it could copy and adapt for foreign weapons and technology for there own means.
strengthened there defense with better weapons and to keep a berth, the interferingly foreigners.
I believe that Jaapanse had not only copy the Armstrong cannon but would try to improve it
Similar to the two matchlock guns the Portuguese sell to Japanese in 1543, only to find in there horror the Japanese made fast 20,000 copies and improve it.

 

[raharris1973]

If anyone non-English speaking gets to Japan it will be France.

I think France would be the leading patron of Japan for at least a few decades if the Shogunate successfully resists the restoration of imperial power. As it was, France was not entirely excluded from influence post-restoration.

 

[Michel Van]

I think France would be the leading patron of Japan for at least a few decades if the Shogunate successfully resists the restoration of imperial power. As it was, France was not entirely excluded from influence post-restoration.

Only after they deal with Conquest there Asia colony "French Indochina"
Starting with military campaigns in 1856, ended in 1885, but was only consolidated in year 1900 as Union Indochinoise.
They could start only in 1885 on to deal military with Japan, if they are not to late or on wait list of other how try enter Japan and failed...

So if USA not open Japan in 1854 who else ?
Russian had more interest in Manchuria and Korea (and Some islands of Japan in order to get there)
France was busy between 1854-1885 with conquest area of Vietnam
German Empire from 1880s on
Britain could have also open Japan in 1860s

 

[Tanc49]

Only after they deal with Conquest there Asia colony "French Indochina"
Starting with military campaigns in 1856, ended in 1885, but was only consolidated in year 1900 as Union Indochinoise.
They could start only in 1885 on to deal military with Japan, if they are not to late or on wait list of other how try enter Japan and failed...

So if USA not open Japan in 1854 who else ?
Russian had more interest in Manchuria and Korea (and Some islands of Japan in order to get there)
France was busy between 1854-1885 with conquest area of Vietnam
German Empire from 1880s on
Britain could have also open Japan in 1860s

France was busy until 1885 with the Franco-Chinese war which crushed Vietnamese opposition but does not mean there's nothing to be spared for Japan.
For Japan it would be around boats and maybe limited landings but I doubt they'd go for full invasion.

It would be blue sea navy which was present but not exactly strained by the Chinese war. Plenty to go bombard some other foreigner into submission

 

[Michel Van]

France was busy until 1885 with the Franco-Chinese war which crushed Vietnamese opposition but does not mean there's nothing to be spared for Japan.
For Japan it would be around boats and maybe limited landings but I doubt they'd go for full invasion.

Even Napoleon III abandon his plans for Mexico invasion and let drop 38000 soldiers on coast of Japan.
The French would never hear again from there Troops invading into Japan, that will be sure !
By the way, What plans had the British empire with Japan ?

 

[Tanc49]

Even Napoleon III abandon his plans for Mexico invasion and let drop 38000 soldiers on coast of Japan.
The French would never hear again from there Troops invading into Japan, that will be sure !
By the way, What plans had the British empire with Japan ?

38.000 French soldiers including a sizeable amount of Légionnaires and gunboats would probably be pretty efficient against the Renaissance style armies of Japan.
Plus, no paludism or tropical fevers would help

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

They can outlast Napoleon III, but if they do maybe Wilhelm II decides the islands would be a great addition to his empire. Though probably, as with Morocco and Turkey to stick up for the natives, and a modernizing Japan becomes a German protectorate.

 

[Asami]

Japan was also not like China; they were modernizing to some degree with the help of Dutch influence through the ports they were allowed to dock in. Japan wasn't stagnating with 1600 tech in 1853.

I don't think Japan would become a protectorate of any European empire. The minute she was opened up by force, modernization would set in and she would become very aggressive very quickly.

 

[Jiraiyathegallant]

Japan already had an amunition factory by the 1820s if I recall correctly. They had economic growth going on under the Shogunate, even if it was inferior to Western Europe. Japan has some European trade, guns, and European military advisors. They are not that backwards.

Combine this with being a mountainous island with a mosty homogenous population of ~30 million people, and they are not an easy nut to crack. Some generic European power can't just decide to conquer Japan by themselves. Even without reforms, Japan will still see continued economic growth even if it fails to match the OTL.

Japan is not like some low population African colony with unrelated tribal peoples that have no guns, economy, or unifying factors. With the right PoD I don't see why Japan can't remain isolated to the present, even if it is foolish.