I'm returning to one of my favorite fairly recent POD's. The Soviet Union survives by a thread. Somehow, Gorbachev avoids the coup attempt, and the Union Treaty is signed in August 1991. While the various SSR's now possess far more sovereignty than they ever did under the traditional system, Gorbachev remains President of the Soviet Union and the rights of the "Imperial Center" in Moscow are well established. Presuming that, against all odds, this reformed USSR survives it's no doubt trying infancy, how long can Gorbachev remain the leader of the Soviet Union? I remember reading that Gorbachev was not very good at dealing with the SSR's during the negotiations, and that would probably mean that Gorbachev would have issues dealing with the newly empowered local governments. Gorbachev would also probably be tremendously unpopular, even if he actually managed to save the Soviet Union. He would still likely be blamed for the decline of the USSR's international influence, as well as economic problems in Russia. Gorbachev is in trouble from at least two different angles. Firstly from a Democratic standpoint, he is very nearly unelectable. And the leadership of the various states simply do not like him. Indeed, President Yeltsin famously despised Gorbachev, and that hatred predated 1991.
So my suspicion is that even if he managed to save the USSR, or at least create a confederation of nations with a unified foreign policy and military that called itself "The Soviet Union" Gorbachev was on the way out.
However, I'm not entirely sure when Gorbachev would finally lose control. I cannot remember whether Gorbachev's position according to the treaty was elective or appointive. If the position was elective Gorbachev might well go out with the election. But when would such an election be held? Who would challenge Gorbachev? I think Yeltsin would be happy to remain President of Russia, though he would relish the chance to humiliate Gorbachev. Or would the election end up being similar to what happened in 1996 historically? That is, the new political and commercial elites decide that while Gorbachev is terrible, his opponent is considerably worse.
If the position is appointive, how long before the Gorbachev is thrown out in favor of someone more acceptable to the leadership of the various SSR's? Who might that more acceptable individual be?
I realize that a barely surviving Soviet Union in the 1990's may be borderline ASB, and there's a good chance the treaty only saves the thing for another year or so. But barring a barely delayed collapse, and presuming at least one individual comes to lead the confederation after Gorbachev, how long does Gorbachev remain in power, and who might the successor be?
So my suspicion is that even if he managed to save the USSR, or at least create a confederation of nations with a unified foreign policy and military that called itself "The Soviet Union" Gorbachev was on the way out.
However, I'm not entirely sure when Gorbachev would finally lose control. I cannot remember whether Gorbachev's position according to the treaty was elective or appointive. If the position was elective Gorbachev might well go out with the election. But when would such an election be held? Who would challenge Gorbachev? I think Yeltsin would be happy to remain President of Russia, though he would relish the chance to humiliate Gorbachev. Or would the election end up being similar to what happened in 1996 historically? That is, the new political and commercial elites decide that while Gorbachev is terrible, his opponent is considerably worse.
If the position is appointive, how long before the Gorbachev is thrown out in favor of someone more acceptable to the leadership of the various SSR's? Who might that more acceptable individual be?
I realize that a barely surviving Soviet Union in the 1990's may be borderline ASB, and there's a good chance the treaty only saves the thing for another year or so. But barring a barely delayed collapse, and presuming at least one individual comes to lead the confederation after Gorbachev, how long does Gorbachev remain in power, and who might the successor be?