How long can Gorbachev last?

I'm returning to one of my favorite fairly recent POD's. The Soviet Union survives by a thread. Somehow, Gorbachev avoids the coup attempt, and the Union Treaty is signed in August 1991. While the various SSR's now possess far more sovereignty than they ever did under the traditional system, Gorbachev remains President of the Soviet Union and the rights of the "Imperial Center" in Moscow are well established. Presuming that, against all odds, this reformed USSR survives it's no doubt trying infancy, how long can Gorbachev remain the leader of the Soviet Union? I remember reading that Gorbachev was not very good at dealing with the SSR's during the negotiations, and that would probably mean that Gorbachev would have issues dealing with the newly empowered local governments. Gorbachev would also probably be tremendously unpopular, even if he actually managed to save the Soviet Union. He would still likely be blamed for the decline of the USSR's international influence, as well as economic problems in Russia. Gorbachev is in trouble from at least two different angles. Firstly from a Democratic standpoint, he is very nearly unelectable. And the leadership of the various states simply do not like him. Indeed, President Yeltsin famously despised Gorbachev, and that hatred predated 1991.

So my suspicion is that even if he managed to save the USSR, or at least create a confederation of nations with a unified foreign policy and military that called itself "The Soviet Union" Gorbachev was on the way out.

However, I'm not entirely sure when Gorbachev would finally lose control. I cannot remember whether Gorbachev's position according to the treaty was elective or appointive. If the position was elective Gorbachev might well go out with the election. But when would such an election be held? Who would challenge Gorbachev? I think Yeltsin would be happy to remain President of Russia, though he would relish the chance to humiliate Gorbachev. Or would the election end up being similar to what happened in 1996 historically? That is, the new political and commercial elites decide that while Gorbachev is terrible, his opponent is considerably worse.

If the position is appointive, how long before the Gorbachev is thrown out in favor of someone more acceptable to the leadership of the various SSR's? Who might that more acceptable individual be?

I realize that a barely surviving Soviet Union in the 1990's may be borderline ASB, and there's a good chance the treaty only saves the thing for another year or so. But barring a barely delayed collapse, and presuming at least one individual comes to lead the confederation after Gorbachev, how long does Gorbachev remain in power, and who might the successor be?
 
I think you'd have to remove Yeltsin somehow to make the thing work, or least remove whatever immediately affected the collapse. Then Gorbachev might last into the mid-90s before being voted out or appointing some sort of successor. Honestly Gorbachev wasn't that great of a leader despite his intentions.

I don't think it's ASB to have the USSR survive the rocky period of 89-92; all you have to do is avoid the really dangerous events like the coup or Yeltsin, and the USSR can hang on, even with the liberalizations that Gorbachev was implementing. The USSR will surely get weaker and weaker as it gets into the 90s, but it wouldn't be anywhere as bad as OTL. By 2010, depending on what kind of leadership replaces Gorbachev, the USSR could either be in a similar situation to today's Russia (but less extreme and more powerful) or be a on a slow but steady decline that ends in the USSR's dissolution in the early 21st century. It really depends on the competency of the leadership.

As a disclaimer, I don't really know many details of Russia's political situation in this time, so take what I say with a grain of salt.
 
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