How long before American joins WW2 if no Pearl Harbor/Philippines invasion?

Another possibility, what if it was a US warship that sunk a Japanese before Pearl? Apologies and court-martials? Or take up the ball and run for base? Before the War Warnings or after?

Technically that did happen when WARD sank that sub
 
You mean 16-19 months right? There was hardly any new USN ships of note that would be completed before that time. Delaying the war with the US for 3-4 months does very little to slow down the Japanese, but instead allows the Japanese to concentrate their forces on the their enemies one at a time.
Not ships but fortifications completed at places like Guam and Wake, new squadrons of aircraft stood up, ground based reinforcements and greater training of existing units, stockpiles built up, @Carl Schwamberger certainly knows more about it than I do, but the Phillippines, Guam and Wake would have been much tougher nuts after 60 days, probably won't save the Philippines or Guam, but they would hold out longer and cost much more to take, and Wake is almost certainly saved, plus the Pearl would be even better defended
 

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Not ships but fortifications completed at places like Guam and Wake, new squadrons of aircraft stood up, ground based reinforcements and greater training of existing units, stockpiles built up, @Carl Schwamberger certainly knows more about it than I do, but the Phillippines, Guam and Wake would have been much tougher nuts after 60 days, probably won't save the Philippines or Guam, but they would hold out longer and cost much more to take, and Wake is almost certainly saved, plus the Pearl would be even better defended
Wake is too small and too isolated to be effectivly defended by the US, it is also within range of Japanese land based planes from the Marshalls. It'd need at least a brigade sized unit to defend the atoll and it is to small to effectivly hold that many troops. It doesn't even have the advantages like Midway of a protective coral reef that'd require specialised equipment. Wake is undefendable.
 
Correct in the long run, Wake is strategically indefensible in late 1941. But, the first attempt was repulsed with heavy losses. The second was successful, after heavy infantry losses. A carrier group was briefly diverted to assist the second effort. that was a few days operational loss, for the Japanese who could afford no extra loss of anything. Its not ASB a slightly more aggressive USN commander could have caught the second amphib squadron approaching & damaged it. & still evacuated the garrison. Wake represented a net loss for the Japanese, to gain a island the US would have evacuated had they a chance.
 
I had intentions of having the war between the two nations start in mid 1942 or so, around May (can be adjusted to a more fitting time-frame). Within those six months, what can the U.S realistically and logically do to bolster their defenses in the pacific? Would they evacuate the smaller island holdings like Guam, and American Samoa as a precautionary measure if they viewed that was was bound to happen? I have rather limited knowledge regarding the subject at large, but wanted to use this POD to force myself to learn more about it.

Not ships but fortifications completed at places like Guam and Wake, new squadrons of aircraft stood up, ground based reinforcements and greater training of existing units, stockpiles built up.
Guam wasn't to have further fortifications constructed since the government didn't see as Guam being able to be defended long-term. The defenders were to destroy all military facilities of value and withdraw. Their was an expansion and improvement of its harbor and seaplane facilities though.

certainly knows more about it than I do, but the Phillippines, Guam and Wake would have been much tougher nuts after 60 days, probably won't save the Philippines or Guam, but they would hold out longer and cost much more to take, and Wake is almost certainly saved, plus the Pearl would be even better defended

I was uncertain of having a Pearl Harbor type situation. Was more thinking of having an attack on en bound American Warships that were to be stationed in the Philippines, I've read that it was intended to engage the fleet IOTL if circumstances allowed for such a thing to occur.
 

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I had intentions of having the war between the two nations start in mid 1942 or so, around May (can be adjusted to a more fitting time-frame). Within those six months, what can the U.S realistically and logically do to bolster their defenses in the pacific
More or less nothing, six months or two weeks makes about as much differance. You need time, engineers, equipment and supplies to fortify antyhing beyond two weeks.

Guam and Wake is undefendable and anything and anyone sent there will either get destroyed, killed or captured. Samoa is to far from Japanese bases to be logistically threatened so it's just unnecessary to send anything there. Or at least anything beyond what already was sent there, the Japanese can't support a force large enough to threathen Samoa.
The Phillippines you can work with, but in the end it is also undefendable because it cannot be reinforced or resupplies after the DEI has been captured by the Japanese.
 
I think what the US will do is concentrate on developing the air and sea links between the west coast, Hawaii, and Australia. That means more and better developed air bases and better developed port infrastructure.

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However, I am also not convinced the US will write off possessions like Guam, Wake, and for that matter the Philippines. Remember, these are the Japanese. Their planes are poorly made copies of western designs and their weak middle ears make them poor pilots.
 
However, I am also not convinced the US will write off possessions like Guam, Wake, and for that matter the Philippines. Remember, these are the Japanese. Their planes are poorly made copies of western designs and their weak middle ears make them poor pilots.
The United States had been writing off Guam and the Philippines. There had been a lobby calling for their fortification decades earlier, and it was decisively defeated both in the military sphere (where notions of a retreat to an eastern Pacific bastion followed by a counteroffensive back across took over) and in the political sphere (by treaties that forbade fortification work). They're not going to suddenly change their mind, and anyway both are far too exposed to be held against a determined Japanese attack.
 
zert said:
Another possibility, what if it was a US warship that sunk a Japanese before Pearl? Apologies and court-martials? Or take up the ball and run for base? Before the War Warnings or after?

Technically that did happen when WARD sank that sub

Under US law the captain of the Ward was acting legally. The War Warning messages of November stated Japanese military forces approaching were to be considered hostile & ordered attacking them.
 
Under US law the captain of the Ward was acting legally. The War Warning messages of November stated Japanese military forces approaching were to be considered hostile & ordered attacking them.

I realize that, I'm just making the point that what Zert was suggesting did in fact happen although I'm sure he was taking about something bigger.
 
The United States had been writing off Guam and the Philippines. There had been a lobby calling for their fortification decades earlier, and it was decisively defeated both in the military sphere (where notions of a retreat to an eastern Pacific bastion followed by a counteroffensive back across took over) and in the political sphere (by treaties that forbade fortification work). They're not going to suddenly change their mind, and anyway both are far too exposed to be held against a determined Japanese attack.

Except they were changing their minds. Moving what was at the time a significant portion of our limited supply of B-17s to the Philippines (it was Stimson who said that the B-17 allowed us to get back into the Philippines), assigning a large number of our most modern submarines there, and squadrons of our most modern fighters. The Pensacola Convoy was approved in August 1941 and involved very substantial reinforcements for the Philippines.

The fact is the US was in the process of reinforcing the Philippines, given a few more months, Washington is not going to back off, it is going to send more.
 
The US was already in the war long before Pearl Harbour. Shots had been fired and both US warships and Uboats had been damaged or sunk. It was only a matter of time before the Germans made it official.

In the Pacific the Japanese are at the point that they either have to attack or give in to US demands. They can't delay more than a month or two. What they could do is attack only the British and the Dutch but that leaves the US able to stab them in the back. To take such a risk is insane, no competent planners would contemplate it knowing the US is their ultimate enemy.

Is it more insane to make sure Japan is at war with the USA? By not going after the USA, that fight is delayed. It buys time and gives Japan more resources to use against the British and Dutch, and their overall war effort. I lean more towards it being less insane to not attack the USA.

Hmm, say Japan just goes after the British and Dutch, does FDR ask for a DOW against just Japan, or the entire Axis?

Another thought, would the Americans, British, etc, pick up signs that the Philippines aren't a target?
 
Except they were changing their minds. ...

The fact is the US was in the process of reinforcing the Philippines, given a few more months, Washington is not going to back off, it is going to send more.

Its not so much changing minds as one school of strategy was accendant & the other still moving forward with their version. Mac & Stimson (& a few others) had lost sight of the idea the US Navy could not effectively relieve the Phillipines in under 12-18 months. As a former Army CoS mac should have understood this well. Or perhaps I am misunderstanding how well a Army CoS understood the basis for a key US war plan.

Anyway, while the Dept of the Navy was carrying on with its long studied Orange (or Rainbow) Plan the War Dept was busy implimenting something else entirely. I have to wonder what Roosevelt thought of this?
 
I realize that, I'm just making the point that what Zert was suggesting did in fact happen although I'm sure he was taking about something bigger.


Thank you both for your points. I was thinking of something bigger and sooner than hours before pearl Harbor. Legally after the War Warnings it was alright to engage as seen needed. Up there with what might have beens and other more serious POD.

With a delay of 6 months, Wake Island would have been built up more with more men and defenses. Possibly with even more planes and radar to help detect attackers.

Guam was just too open to have any real ability to stop an invasion.

The Philippines would have had more men trained and set up defenses but would still fall. Just cost the Japanese more needed men, planes, and precious fuel.

The extra 6 months would allow for more destroyers and submarines to be available and more refits to be done on current warships. I am not sure if the delays would allow for more 20mm and 40mm guns to be installed.
 
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The Philippines would have had more men trained and set up defenses but would still fall. Just cost the Japanese more needed men, planes, and precious fuel.

The extra 6 months would allow for more destroyers and submarines to be available and more refits to be done on current warships. I am not sure if the delays would allow for more 20mm and 40mm guns to be installed.

Six months would see a well trained radar controlled interceptor system operating in the PI. At least 3x aircraft as in Dec 1941, the PI army mobilized & six months training behind it, six more monthly convoys or ammunition, weapons, fuel, medical supplies, comms equipment, ect... ect... It also means two or three full scale rehersals of the defense plan & a half dozen more at the small unit level.

Actually three months of that goes a long way to getting the PI defense to good enough, never mind perfection.
 
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