How Likely Was British And French Aid to the Confederates?

There's some disconnect here; recognizing the facts on the ground and granting the Confederacy recognition with military force to back it up very much is actively aiding them.

You have any evidence at all that the UK was planning to back the CSA with military force? Making contingency plans is one thing , actively planning to do something is another.
 
"Making contingency plans is one thing , actively planning to do something is another."

Look at the United States color-coded war plans:

According to the public intelligence site, Global Security, the following plans are known to have existed:

War Plan Black[10]
A plan for war with Germany. The best-known version of Black was conceived as a contingency plan during World War I, in case France fell and the Germans attempted to seize French possessions in the Caribbean Sea, or launch an attack on the eastern seaboard.

War Plan Gray[11]
There were two War Plans named Gray. The first dealt with Central America[11] and the Caribbean, and the second dealt with invading the Portuguese Azores.[12]


War Plan Brown[13]
Dealt with an uprising in the Philippines.

War Plan Tan[14]
Intervention in Cuba.

War Plan Red[15]
Plan for the United Kingdom (with sub variants Crimson, Scarlet, Ruby, Garnet, and Emerald for British dominions)

War Plan Orange[16]
Plan for Japan.

War Plan Red-Orange[17]
Considered a two-front war with the United States (Blue) opposing Japan (Orange) and the British Empire (Red) simultaneously. This analysis led to the understanding that the United States didn't have the resources to fight a two front war, and it would make sense to focus on one front, probably in the Atlantic. Ultimately this was the decision made in the Plan Dog memo.

War Plan Yellow[18]
Dealt with war in China—specifically, anticipating a repeat of the Boxer Uprising (1899–1901).[19] War Plan Yellow would deploy the US army in coalition with other imperial forces to suppress indigenous discontent in the Shanghai International Settlement and Beijing Legation Quarter,[20] with chemical weapons if necessary.[21]


War Plan Gold[22]
Involved war with France, and/or France's Caribbean colonies.

War Plan Green[23]
Involved war with Mexico or what was known as "Mexican Domestic Intervention" in order to defeat rebel forces and establish a pro-American government. War Plan Green was officially canceled in 1946.

War Plan Indigo[24]
Involved an occupation of Iceland. In 1941, while Denmark was under German occupation, the US actually did occupy Iceland, relieving British units during the Battle of the Atlantic.

War Plan Purple[25]
Dealt with invading a South American republic.

War Plan Violet[26]
Covered Latin America.

War Plan White[27]
Dealt with a domestic uprising in the US, and later evolved to Operation Garden Plot, the general US military plan for civil disturbances and peaceful protests. Parts of War Plan White were used to deal with the Bonus Expeditionary Force in 1932. Communist insurgents were considered the most likely threat by the authors of War Plan White.

War Plan Blue[28]
Covered defensive plans and preparations that the United States should take in times of peace.

Just because a nation has a contingency plan doesn't mean they necessarily plan, or even want to go to war with that power. However, it's good to have a plan in place if things spiral out of control.
 
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France/NIII won't do anything the British are not doing simultaneously or previously. NIII very carefully trimmed his support of the CSA based on what the British were doing. Absent something like the Trent Affair snowballing in to a direct conflict between the USA and the UK I don't see Britain getting militarily involved against the USA, even if they decide to recognize the independence of the CSA. Even with recognition of the CSA, the UK is unlikely to try and use force to break the blockade of the south, because the blockade is a close blockade and in accordance with the laws of war as they existed then. It appears from the evidence that the UK (and subsequently France) were not going to formally declare the CSA to be independent unless and until the military situation on the ground became clear that the odds were very much they were going to succeed.

The Confederate leaders put great store in the possibility of French and British recognition. While this would potentially give them greater access to credit, and possibly more open purchases of arms, the concept of the RN breaking the Union blockade for the CSA or other direct military intervention was not going to happen outside of direct US-UK war scenario. Had the CSA succeeded, in the aftermath of a successful secession, treaties between the CSA and UK and/or the CSA and France would not be unreasonable - France more likely than the UK as the UK had a tendency not to get in to fixed defense treaties.

The dream of the UK or UK/France coming in on white horses to ensure Confederate victory was a persistent but unrealistic dream of Confederate political leaders from the get-go as evidenced by the early application of the cotton embargo to force the UK and France to aid the CSA to ensure their supply of cotton. Not the only bit of magical thinking the CSA upper levels had.
 
There is no chance for unilateral support of the Confederacy on the part of either the UK or France. The French were probably the most enthusiastic at dreaming of it based on the needs of the Mexican Intervention, but would absolutely not move unless they had British backing. Britain was only interested insasmuch as it suited their purposes. Even the height of the talk of mediating the civil war in August-October of 1862 was based around "humanitarian" concerns regarding the cost of the war in human lives, the potential of a mass slave uprising, and the feeling that Lee was about to win a signal victory over the North. Even then, the offer might only have been one of recognition of a now established fact of Southern independence and an offer of mediation between the two sides, put forward by Britain, France, and Russia. Though Russia would not have supported that.

Even the oft talked about "Trent War" would not see Britain suddenly gunning for unilateral acceptance of the Confederacy. There is no chance they would sign something like the Treaty of Alliance with the South, as backing the South to the hilt is not in British interests. The same recognition craze might take over, but they will not back the South if they can simply leave the war on their own terms.
 
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