How likely was a Lincoln defeat in 1864 w/o Atlanta?

I agree this POD is only likely to cost Lincoln 3 states and still give him the victory but didn't the National Union Party explicitly insist on not counting Tennessee?
Yes, because they wanted stricter standards for reconstruction. My point was the votes are there if they would make a difference. OTL they wouldn’t do the NU could stand on principle without losing the WH.
 
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