How Likely Is it that Japan could get nuclear weapons during WW2?

[googoo4]

This has probably been asked before, but how likely would it be that Japan would get nuclear weapons during World War 2? Or, to what year would the war have to last for Japan to get nuclear weapons? This is assuming that nothing would change in what the Japanese did to get these nukes, and that the only outside source they could get nukes from is Germany.

 

[General Tirpitz]

Extremely unlikely. Even Japanese themselves didn't believe that they could get nuclear weapons. It tells a lot of the state of project when one of the motivators of people leading the nuclear program is to keep younger scientists from getting conscripted.

EDIT: If you are interested, John Dower's essay "NI" and "F": Japan's Wartime Atomic Bomb Research published in his book Japan in War and Peace is a good, short introduction to the topic.

 

[Saint_007]

There was a supply of uranium on a captured U-boat, destined for Japan when the USN intercepted it around V-E Day. It caused fears the Japanese were close to creating their own nukes, but most likely, it was meant to be used as dirty weaponry, basically to spread as much radiation over Allied forces and civilian populace to kill or weaken them to disrupt the war effort.

Chances are, that uranium made it back to Japan anyways - in the form of Little Boy and Fat Man.

 

[Dorknought]

it was meant to be used as dirty weaponry, basically to spread as much radiation over Allied forces and civilian populace to kill or weaken them to disrupt the war effort.

They did have their balloon bomb program for delivery.

 

[Saint_007]

They did have their balloon bomb program for delivery.

The intent was not so much 'bomb' as 'radiation seeding/tainting' of the countryside. They knew they never really could deliver a working bomb, not with their rapidly dwindling resources at the end of the war.