How likely is an Anti-Comintern Pact and Italian agreement to Anschluss w/out the Spanish Civil War?

How likely is Italian agreement to Austro-German Anschluss if there is no Spanish Civil War?

  • Unlikely

    Votes: 8 36.4%
  • Likely

    Votes: 14 63.6%

  • Total voters
    22

raharris1973

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How likely is an Anti-Comintern Pact and Italian agreement to Anschluss w/out the Spanish Civil War?

PoD for there being no Spanish Civil War is the Spanish Centre-Right wins the mid 1930s elections.
 

raharris1973

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So far we have one vote saying it was likely, regardless of the Spanish Civil War.

I tend to think of the Anglo-Italian rancor over Abyssinia as a necessary condition for Mussolini to move toward alignment toward Hitler and toward *eventual* acquiescence in German-Austrian unification, but not necessarily a sufficient.

I added a vote for unlikely because I tend to think that Mussolini's involvement in the Spanish Civil War was critical for getting the Italians to stand aside during the Anschluss of March 1938, because the SCW both distracted him from his northern border and involved him in a cooperative endeavor with the Germans for a couple years.

The Italian and German involvement on the same side of the SCW also seems to pre-date the anti-Comintern Pact (which Japan also signed) by about six months.
 
@lukedalton , @LordKalvan, @Cook, @sarahz, @FillyofDelphi, @Anchises & @Evil Crusader -

What are your thoughts on the criticality of the Spanish Civil War to shaping Italo-German diplomacy, and eventually alliance, as we knew them.

Without the Spanish Civil War experience, are the 1938 Anschluss, 1939 Pact of Steel and 1940 Italian DoW on the Allies still plausible?

Easily. Once Mussolini had alienated himself from Britain and France via his naval muscle flexing and pushing up against the Versailles status quo, aligning to Germany was the only way he'd get the diplomatic support and guranteed access to raw material (coal in particular) to pursue her ambitions comfortably
 
Without the Spanish civil war, relations between Italy and Paris-London while not good will be better than OTL and Benny will be lesser attached to Germany, the Anshluss will probably still happen but the Pact of Steel by a lesser degree
 
without the Spanish Civil War? what other "ventures" might Italy have become involved with? no guarantee their interests would align with German interests.
 

raharris1973

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without the Spanish Civil War? what other "ventures" might Italy have become involved with? no guarantee their interests would align with German interests.

Good question - any thoughts on what some "ventures" might be?

There is the once obscure, but now currently fashionable, idea of Italian aggression against Yugoslavia.
 
without the Spanish Civil War? what other "ventures" might Italy have become involved with? no guarantee their interests would align with German interests.

Good question - any thoughts on what some "ventures" might be?

There is the once obscure, but now currently fashionable, idea of Italian aggression against Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia, Greece, or Turkey seem to be the options, along with an earlier occupation of Albania. in the recent thread on invasion of Yugoslavia https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-earlier-italian-invasion-of-yugoslavia.447624/ do not believe there was much if any discussion on whether Italy planned to occupy all of the country or cleave off Croatia/Slovenia/Bosnia?

my suggestion was that Italy would have to accept German moves in Austria while they were in mid leap invading Yugoslavia?

also with no Spanish Civil War one obstacle to better German-Soviet relations has been removed, also the Soviets have not looted the Spanish gold so they have more incentive to strike a deal. (not likely but possible, maybe after a 1935 attempt at Anti-Comintern Pact fails, including no interest from Poland?)
 

raharris1973

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Yugoslavia, Greece, or Turkey seem to be the options

Turkey intrigues me, because it is the most different from OTL. I'm not sure what the excuse would be. Nor am I sure what the Italian objective be: The sphere of influence promised at Sevres? The straits themselves?

On thing about it is that ambitions against Turkey could theoretically lead to an alliance of convenience between Italy and the Soviet Union, with each making gains at Turkish expense.
 

raharris1973

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Easily. Once Mussolini had alienated himself from Britain and France via his naval muscle flexing and pushing up against the Versailles status quo, aligning to Germany was the only way he'd get the diplomatic support and guranteed access to raw material (coal in particular) to pursue her ambitions comfortably

Going with your concept, and the majority of votes to date [the pro-Anschluss and Anti-COMINTERN side is winning the poll, 8:3] opens up the ability to do some interesting speculation on Spain itself, in comparative isolation.

Assuming my PoD from the OP:
PoD for there being no Spanish Civil War is the Spanish Centre-Right wins the mid 1930s elections.

But then proceeding and having European developments proceed basically as OTL, Anschluss, Munich, Poland, WWII.

I would guess that the default path for the alternate, center-right, non-dictatorial, non-Civil War devastated version of Spain would be neutral in the WWII in the ATL (as Spain was in WWI), only it would be more of a "true" neutral, like Switzerland and Sweden, without Franco's pro-Axis tilt.

It could also be much more prosperous and developed in the postwar era.

Does anybody disagree and think a no civil war, democratic Spain would be more likely to get drawn into WWII? Why so?

Of course, when would the next election in Spain be? If it's in 1940 and a popular front wins, what happens then? Especially if there is a Civil War at that time? Can Germany tolerate a center-left Spain that is neutral?

Also, how much is Soviet spending power reduced without the Spanish gold?
 
Good question - any thoughts on what some "ventures" might be?

There is the once obscure, but now currently fashionable, idea of Italian aggression against Yugoslavia.

The most likely I'd think. Mario Cervi in 'Hollow Legions' makes the point of how the Italian army of the 1930s was organized and equipped around the mission of war with Yugoslavia.
 
The most likely I'd think. Mario Cervi in 'Hollow Legions' makes the point of how the Italian army of the 1930s was organized and equipped around the mission of war with Yugoslavia.

does it include mention of whether they intended to occupy the entire country? or rather force Serbia into pre-WWI borders?
 
I don't remember if Cervi mentioned strategic goals in the case of Yugoslavia. He was making a explanation of why the Italian army was unprepared for a a large regional war, vs national defense or a single front single target war. Either way it would explain why the logistics were so bad. Colonial expeditions and plans for capturing Belgrade wold not lead to comprehensive preparation for armies in Africa or multi fronts.
 
I also think it's fairly likely that Italy keeps the OTL trajectory even without the Spanish Civil War unless Hitler screws up and manages to alienate Mussolini somehow.

As for the War against Yugoslavia, if they went at it alone they'd probably want to annex Slovenia, install Pavelic in Croatia and likely trisect Serbia, bringing back Montenegro (which the Savoy had family ties with) and giving Kosovo to Albania.

That alone is a plan that can only work if nobody intervenes, and for nobody to not intervene Yugoslavia needs to enter Civil War by itself.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Without the Spanish civil war, relations between Italy and Paris-London while not good will be better than OTL and Benny will be lesser attached to Germany, the Anshluss will probably still happen but the Pact of Steel by a lesser degree
Mussolini really felt betrayed by Britain and France for coming out strongly against his invasion of Ethiopia (which France and Britain did because of public pressure, the governments didn't want to make Benny upset), so a Berlin- Rome axis could still happen, but might not.
 
Turkey intrigues me, because it is the most different from OTL. I'm not sure what the excuse would be. Nor am I sure what the Italian objective be: The sphere of influence promised at Sevres? The straits themselves?

On thing about it is that ambitions against Turkey could theoretically lead to an alliance of convenience between Italy and the Soviet Union, with each making gains at Turkish expense.

a newspaper article of the time https://news.google.com/newspapers?...g=1997,3847789&dq=356-wounded+11-planes&hl=en
 
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