How likely is a war over Austria between Italy and Germany in 1934?

...if they won, and handled the peace conference cleverly, set a perfect situation for the Nazis to start from, with faster, more internationaly accepted militarization, a precedent for german self determenination, etc.

I was actually thinking that would how they would be seen if they lost, by the common German and Austrian people in particular. The Austro-Fascists were unpopular and had nothing to offer the Austrian people expect vague promises of unification 'once the Nazis are gone', an uninspiring economic programme of feeble corporatism and austerity measures. Remember, pretty much all Austrian political parties advocated unification with Germany. The Allies forbade unification in Versailles because it was almost certain to happen on it's own.

And if the Nazis get replaced by the military... Well, as much as we can admire Hitler's opponents in the army, their vision of the future of Germany was reactionary and warped with anti-democratic sentiment. They regarded the Nazi regime as the direct continuation of the Weimar Republic, mob rule essentially, and their answer to it was a kind of rural authoritarian utopia in which people did what they were told and weren't allowed to engage in politics above the local government level.
 
Hitler and the military

Win or loose (and they would only loose if somebody else apart from Italy invades, be it France or poland), a war in 1934 will serve to unite Hitler and the Army more strongly. I don't think there is much basis for the german Army to go anywhere but nazi in the 30s. There was no viable right wing alternative, since the tradicional right wingers felt it was either Hitler or Socialism, and they liked Hitler better.Hiyler gave the Garman Army pretty much all it wanted. A validation for loosing WW1 (You should have won, you were the best, but got "stabbed in the back") rapid promotions and all the money for weapons they wanted, plus a central role in German Society. After all those years of forced staganation it was wonderfull news. If given a chance to get back in bussines in what they saw as a just war, they embrace the opportunity.
There might a few old school General who despised Hitler on social grounds, but the bulk of the Army liked what the nazis were offering, and would block any anti nazi attempt. And Generals very, very rarely turn against their junior and Staff officers...
 
Top