How late can European Russia break up?

Approximately 110,000,000 people make up European Russia, which is by far the biggest European ethnic group. How late can we break this up into several nations and/or states?

If OTL is any indicator, as 'late' as 1991.

Pre-1900 though I'd have to say the latest would be a total reversal of the Russo-Turkish War of 1877–1878, which even IOTL was a close run. So ITTL instead the Russians fail and the fallout is just as severe as it was for the Turks; ITTL you'll see Romania, Crimea, Georgia, an perhaps even Ukraine break away from St. Petersburg and fall under Turkish influence. Maybe if you get real lucky the Poles decide now's the time for another revolt, and this time they're more successful.

EDIT: Romania, Georgia, and Poland generally aren't considered 'Russian' territories however, and arguments could be made either way even for Crimea. Ukraine however is a core Russian territory; see Malorossiya.
 
Romania, Georgia, and Poland generally aren't considered 'Russian' territories however, and arguments could be made either way even for Crimea. Ukraine however is a core Russian territory; see Malorossiya.

Yes, I was thinking of "core Russia" so to speak. It seems that, with a post-1700 POD it can't really be done more than OTL, with Belarus and Ukraine breaking away.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Yes, I was thinking of "core Russia" so to speak. It seems that, with a post-1700 POD it can't really be done more than OTL, with Belarus and Ukraine breaking away.
Well, the Russian Civil War going mental, resulting in warlordism is a distant possibility, but that would be post 1900.
 
If OTL is any indicator, as 'late' as 1991.

Pre-1900 though I'd have to say the latest would be a total reversal of the Russo-Turkish War of 1877–1878, which even IOTL was a close run. So ITTL instead the Russians fail and the fallout is just as severe as it was for the Turks; ITTL you'll see Romania, Crimea, Georgia, an perhaps even Ukraine break away from St. Petersburg and fall under Turkish influence. Maybe if you get real lucky the Poles decide now's the time for another revolt, and this time they're more successful.

I find that result VERY far from being likely. Russia alone deployed 2x as many troops in that war as the Ottomans. I have no trouble imagining the Russians butting their heads in vain against Plevna and other areas and backing down, thus giving the Porte a victory, but I have trouble seeing the Ottomans pull the reverse on Russia. Ukraine being even MUCH less likely.

Honestly though, I've only very very very briefly looked at the 19th century, so take that with a grain of salt.
 
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