How late a Russian victory over Japan?

maverick

Banned
Going randomly through the Internet, I found this on another forum, a reference to General Kutopatkin's inconpetence, this time at the battle of Sandepu...

Now, I'm curious...would a Russian victory at Sandepu, on January 26th of 1905, be enough to allow Russia to win the war against Japan? getting rid of Kutopatkin and a Russian Victory at Sandepu could led to the Japanese to be pushed back southwardly while more reinforcements arrive for the Russians?

Remember that the Japanese had little chance of sustaining a long war of attrition and that the people was not supportive of the war...could this battle, this late, be enough?

The next engagement, while not led by Kuropatkin, was impacted by him. Newly arrived to take command of the Russian Second Army was one General Oskar-Ferdinand Kazimirovich Grippenberg. Deaf and with no real command experience, he saw something that Kuropatkin didn't: a key position held by the Japanese was exposed and could be easily taken. With another Japanese army on the way to reinforce the one the Russians currently faced, Grippenberg wanted to attack immediately. Kuropatkin was strongly opposed. Grippenberg went ahead and launched a well executed attack with his Russian Second on January 25, 1905. As it was the dead of winter, the Japanese were encamped, not expecting anything to happen until spring and were taken completely by surprise by the Russian attack. Japanese command and control began to collapse and Grippenberg pressed forward. Then, on January 29th, faced with success for once, Kuropatkin ordered Grippenberg to stop his advance and retreat. Grippenberg was so enraged that he resigned his commission and went back to Moscow, complaining bitterly about the foolishness of Kuropatkin.
Click to expand...
 

FlyingDutchman

The Russians will have plenty of problems getting enough reinforcements etc in the Far East. What they managed to do in 1945 was a logistical feat.

It's much easier for the Japanese to reinforce or even rotate troops.
 

maverick

Banned
But a Japanese offensive against Mukden can be prevented...

Couldn't the Russians proceed with an attack against Southern Manchuria and the Liandong Peninsula given enough aggressiveness on the behalf of the Russian commanders?
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

The Japanese were getting tired and over-stretched. OTL the defeat at TsuShima made it clear to Russia that there would be no reopening of the naval front, and that a hard land slog would only make internal conditions worse

Now, if Russia had WON at TsuShima, morale in the nation would have been given a boost, and the land war stalemate would actually play to Russia's advantage as it runs down Japanese reserves (financial and industrial)

Thus, we could be talking late May 1905...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Markus

Banned
IIRC the (new??) CG of the Russian forces in the far east had assembeld a force thta would have crushed the somewhat exhausted Japanese by it´s sheer size, but just when he was ready to strike, the Tsar threw the towel. I´m not sure, but I think the unrest/revolt of 1905 had something to do with it. Have the Russians go ahead and Japan looses the land war.
 
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