How large would Ireland's population be?

[ShortsBelfast]

Yes but at least 1.4 million of them (at the more conservative estimate of emigration to GB) aren't "missing " because we can trace them through either emigration figures or later censuses in Great Britain. And they would have supplied some of the population growth through their children too.
Lots of people died, no question about that and lots of Famine graveyards to prove it. And Leinster and Ulster and Cork weren't badly hit by Famine and would have had relatively normal population growth which would substitute for some of the dead. But my 1861 source fits the other figures better than the assertion that a million died.

 

[Vuu]

Passing along a question: How do you all think the women of Ireland would feel about all this? Seriously.

And, more generally, why is that whenever population growth is discussed the role of the child-bearers gets short shrift?
Yeah, yeah, we just have to go with tradition (cue Fiddler on the Roof in the background - Tradition, tradition tradition!).
Except when we want to change behaviors and/or attitudes to fit our alternate construct...

Pfft, like anyone gave a damn about any individual opinion back then, even of women less so

And there's an easy way to make a population jump: there's an correlation that the instant a reactionary government comes to power, birth rates skyrocket on their own

 

[Avalon]

Yes but at least 1.4 million of them (at the more conservative estimate of emigration to GB) aren't "missing " because we can trace them through either emigration figures or later censuses in Great Britain. And they would have supplied some of the population growth through their children too.
Lots of people died, no question about that and lots of Famine graveyards to prove it. And Leinster and Ulster and Cork weren't badly hit by Famine and would have had relatively normal population growth which would substitute for some of the dead. But my 1861 source fits the other figures better than the assertion that a million died.

And with the figures predicted that still leaves around 600000 people. More than your 500000 'max'. This is the first time I've seen a 1.4 million figure ever with 1.2 being the max. The estimate for population loss is 20%-25% so even if we did use the 1841 8.1 million instead of the highly likely 8.3-8.6 million people that still presents 6.25 million using your 1.4 million figures. Frankly, I'm going to trust the actual census figures and observations made by the census takers themselves along with the consensus of most historians on the topic. And while Leinster and Ulster weren't hit as bad they were still hit losing about 15 per cent of their populations.

EDIT: In the section about using the 8 million I'm using the 25% population loss.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

No I agree that Ireland's population by 1846 would have been significantly above 8.17 millions. The census takers extrapolated over 9 million by 1851 so that assumes an average increase of births over deaths of about 100,000 p.a. Consequently Ireland's population should have peaked at around 8.6 million in 1846. We then know that a minimum of 1 million and probably at least 1.05 million emigrated to Australasia or North America prior to the 1851 Census. I haven't accessed the figures for transportation during the Famine years but that must over five years have amounted to at least ten thousand more. Which leaves around 7.56 million who didn't emigrate.
So if you subtract the 6.55 million found alive you can assume that 1.01 million died. However while we don't know exactly many Irish migrated to England (some may have assimilated and concealed their origins or died before 1851) we have enough of a picture to extrapolate that at least 0.35 million did so. Quite apart from anything else the fare to England or Scotland was about 5% of that to America. Subtract that as well and you get around 660,00 deaths. 560,000 if you are less conservative in calculating migration to the UK.

 

[Avalon]

No I agree that Ireland's population by 1846 would have been significantly above 8.17 million. The census takers extrapolated over 9 million by 1851 so that assumes an average increase of births over deaths of about 100,000 p.a. Consequently, Ireland's population should have peaked at around 8.6 million in 1846. We then know that a minimum of 1 million and probably at least 1.05 million emigrated to Australasia or North America prior to the 1851 Census. I haven't accessed the figures for transportation during the Famine years but that just over five years have amounted to at least ten thousand more. Which leaves around 7.56 million who didn't emigrate.
So if you subtract the 6.55 million found alive you can assume that 1.01 million died. However, while we don't know exactly many Irish migrated to England (some may have assimilated and concealed their origins or died before 1851) we have enough of a picture to extrapolate that at least 0.35 million did so. Quite apart from anything else the fare to England or Scotland was about 5% of that to America. Subtract that as well and you get around 660,00 deaths. 560,000 if you are less conservative in calculating migration to the UK.

We actually have exact figures for out of kingdom emigration which was 967,908 according to the '51 census granted you could raise the issue of families who completely emigrated leaving no one for the census to ask. We as you said before we don't have figures on emigration to the UK which is where the swinging comes to 200,000 minimum by Boyle & Ó Gráda in 1986. Of course, they actually explain their reasoning and the other figures in detail in the work. This puts us around 700,000 - 800,000 which is perfectly in line with academic estimates.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

Avalon, my thanks for the link to the study by Boyle & Ó Gráda in 1986 which I hadn't seen before. I think the (rounded) figures for annual emigration I quoted (which I confess to having lifted from the internet myself!) were reconciled with Board of Trade shipping records. If so, that would cover the issue of whole family emigration (except that Captains had an incentive to understate the numbers of their passengers).
Two other problems: the man who joins the army to escape starvation - by 1851 O'Halloran, Private Michael, may be in a cantonment in India, a barracks in Cape Province or Queensland or in a fort on the US and Canadian border. He isn't going to appear on either the Irish or GB census figures or the emigration figures. Secondly, Patrick Daly wants to join his family in Canada or the USA but hasn't the necessary fare; he manages to get to Glasgow or Liverpool in 1847 and works hard for three years to accrue the necessary funds and manages not to drink or gamble them away. Three years later, having achieved his aim, he goes on to North America but he won't be on either the Irish emigration rolls or the 1851 census either.
I think the long term solution lies in digitisation and analytical software rather than academic study. What is really needed is a sophisticated search programme that would go through the GB 1851 Census figures, Army and Navy enrollment figures 1846-50, Convict transportation records 1846-50, both the British and Irish emigration rolls and such immigration and census records as exist in the USA, Canada (incl Newfoundland), Cape Province, Australia and New Zealand for the period and detect everyone of Irish birth mentioned therein. Even that won't give us everyone but it will bring us as near to certainty as is achievable on this earth!

 

[Avalon]

Snip

We can only hope.