How large can vinland get

One Vinland is able to plant it's feet in the ground after a period of around 15 years then the immigration from Greenland and Iceland would allow it to be stronger than any local skraeling threat, get them surviving long enough then it will be hard to erase.

When were the earliest voyages to the Grand Banks by the Bretons/Basques? Would the more widespread knowledge that there were indeed lands to the west encourage earlier voyaging, and maybe trading- why go through the hassle of catching and salting cod when you can get it from Vinlanders on the spot, in exchange for goods from Europe?


This.

In my TL the Norse had used the advantage of the westerlies to launch their ships at Iceland to sell the enormous amounts of fish from the grand banks.

Also some of these people using the westerlies got pushed southwards and found the Azores.
 
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Disease is not a non-issue, as smallpox was only one of many diseases spread to the New World.

There was the Disease that killed many Greenlanders including Erik The Red.

Albeit it would only kill local Skraelings, not enough trade and contact for it to ravage the continent, so it would probably just take a chunk out of the population of Newfoundland, Labrador, and maybe a little bit of Quebec but wouldn't go further unless someone wanted to have some Cahokian Merchant be there or something stupid like that.
 
There was the Disease that killed many Greenlanders including Erik The Red.

Albeit it would only kill local Skraelings, not enough trade and contact for it to ravage the continent, so it would probably just take a chunk out of the population of Newfoundland, Labrador, and maybe a little bit of Quebec but wouldn't go further unless someone wanted to have some Cahokian Merchant be there or something stupid like that.

Actually mentioned in the Sagas. Also, that wouldn't be stupid- the era was a time of ethnic flux in NA and there were very wide-spanning trade networks we probably underestimate if anything.
 
That's true, but the English settlers also could call in backup as well as most critically, supplies, from the mother country. Not many supplies will be forthcoming from Iceland and Greenland, least of all Scandinavia.

I don't think the Greenland settlement called in any supplies from Iceland. They seem to have done OK without them.

We can estimate there were between 2,000 to 3,000 Indians on Newfoundland based on how many there were when the English showed up centuries later. Greenland had no more than 10,000 Norse scattered in three settlements, and Iceland around 50,000, maybe a bit more. Norway had about 450,000. How many people of these people will abandon Greenland and Iceland in a longship to go to the edge of the world, far beyond contact from civilisation? The shipping is very very difficult in this era, after all.

The Beothuk numbers are really old. 19th century. More recent estimates puts their numbers at 400 - 700 individuals at the time they encountered the English ( Marshall, A History and Ethnography of the Beothuk) Numbers at the time of the Norse are likely to have been marginally lower.

However, that is not that important. What is important is that the Beothuk lived in family bands of 30 - 50 people (less than the crew of a single longboat), across a land bigger than Ireland.

While Greenland maxed its population at 5000 people. These lived in farms around churches, with groups of these being a settlement. The biggest of Greenlands three settlements probably maxed out at about 2500 - 3000 people. In the more clement climate of Ireland, a Norse town with little in the way of hinterlands were estimated to be 4000 + people.

This is the Beothuks essential problem. If Norse settlement gets going they are not going to encounter the Norse as a unified force. They have no societal mechanisms for anything like that. A Beothuk family band of maybe 40 people will encounter a Norse settlement area of maybe one hundred times their numbers. And a hundred to one is their best case numbers.

Even initially, the Norse settler pool from Greenland and maybe Iceland, outnumbers them. Eric the red probably left Iceland for Greenland with 2x their maximum population.

(And even if they did manage to join every Beothuk from an area bigger than Ireland together in one force, they would still be outnumbered maybe ten to one by one Norse settlement. What saved them was that the Norse did not know this.)

And then the Norse population will start growing....

Essentially, the Norse uses the available food resources far more efficiently. That means that at the point of contact, the Norse will massively outnumber the natives.

And... I don't think there were any agriculturalists in the Eastern North America around the time of Eric the Red. I think that came during the next 500 years. I could be wrong though.

All that is before looking at the situation with diseases...
 
...and the diseases

Apparently people need this reminder.

Smallpox first arrived in Iceland (not even Greenland) in the 13th century.

Disease is really a non-issue.

Smallpox is not going to be an issue at contact. Which is good, smallpox in a virgin field can have a mortality rate of 90 %.

However, the Colombian exchange of disease also included measles, chickenpox, influenza, diphtheria, croup, cholera, scarlet fever, whooping cough, and rubella. Maybe typhus and more. These diseases, in a virgin field, have mortality rates of 20-30 %.



Each.



Thats quite a horrific little word really. The average population drop in a Native American society was 90 %. If you were lucky, 80 %. If you were unlucky... the Amazon jungle was a densely populated agricultural society in 1492.

Now, the Beothuks are not quite that badly off. First off, being nomadic with a low population density works in their favor.

A Beothuk family group that encounters Europeans may well have the diseases burn out before encountering another family group. Second, some diseases have short incubation periods, and will burn themselves out on the long voyage to Vinland.

However, Rubella infected children may be contagious for a year. Whooping cough 12 weeks. Chickenpox can reactivate through the life of a survivor. At a guess, the average family group will have a 25 % mortality after encountering a settlement.

If they do manage to join up to resist the Norse, of course, death rates will climb enormously.
 
The Beothuk numbers are really old. 19th century. More recent estimates puts their numbers at 400 - 700 individuals at the time they encountered the English ( Marshall, A History and Ethnography of the Beothuk) Numbers at the time of the Norse are likely to have been marginally lower.

Would they really have been lower when the Medieval Warm Period would've been a time of abundance? This was the same era when other American Indian groups were attempting to place semi-settled villages in southern Canada along the river valleys, something which later (and earlier) became only possible really in Nebraska/South Dakota. It seems like this was the era when a lot of Native American traditions became established/solidified, which implies a time of plenty in many spots on/off the continent.

But not important, I'll admit.

And then the Norse population will start growing....

Essentially, the Norse uses the available food resources far more efficiently. That means that at the point of contact, the Norse will massively outnumber the natives.

Maybe, but that doesn't mean the Beothuk will immediately die out or not leave their genetic mark in the initial Vinlanders. It seems likely they'd get incorporated somehow. Or the survivors will, of course.

Depending on how small the initial settlement pool is, they might need to infuse native blood, and knowing the Norse, probably will (and possibly did even in OTL).
And... I don't think there were any agriculturalists in the Eastern North America around the time of Eric the Red. I think that came during the next 500 years. I could be wrong though.

Basically all of them were south of the northern Maritimes, I'm 99% sure. None in immediate contact with Vinland. Agriculture had been pretty well established for a few centuries at that point, although not as well established as it was in the 1500s (I'd guess). Some archaeology sources might hint at how well the traditions surrounding land use were developed at the time, I'm not sure. It seems to well developed in the 16th/early 17th century to be too new.

Of course, you won't be finding anything close to Cahokia in nowadays New England, but it does seem the village culture was pretty well developed in density especially before the epidemics struck.

All that is before looking at the situation with diseases...

Regarding measles, wasn't that almost as difficult to transport by ship over such distances as smallpox was? And for that matter, are the other two MMR diseases similar? In that case, that might be a few more diseases to worry about later.
 
I don't think the Greenland settlement called in any supplies from Iceland. They seem to have done OK without them.



The Beothuk numbers are really old. 19th century. More recent estimates puts their numbers at 400 - 700 individuals at the time they encountered the English ( Marshall, A History and Ethnography of the Beothuk) Numbers at the time of the Norse are likely to have been marginally lower.

However, that is not that important. What is important is that the Beothuk lived in family bands of 30 - 50 people (less than the crew of a single longboat), across a land bigger than Ireland.

While Greenland maxed its population at 5000 people. These lived in farms around churches, with groups of these being a settlement. The biggest of Greenlands three settlements probably maxed out at about 2500 - 3000 people. In the more clement climate of Ireland, a Norse town with little in the way of hinterlands were estimated to be 4000 + people.

This is the Beothuks essential problem. If Norse settlement gets going they are not going to encounter the Norse as a unified force. They have no societal mechanisms for anything like that. A Beothuk family band of maybe 40 people will encounter a Norse settlement area of maybe one hundred times their numbers. And a hundred to one is their best case numbers.

Even initially, the Norse settler pool from Greenland and maybe Iceland, outnumbers them. Eric the red probably left Iceland for Greenland with 2x their maximum population.

(And even if they did manage to join every Beothuk from an area bigger than Ireland together in one force, they would still be outnumbered maybe ten to one by one Norse settlement. What saved them was that the Norse did not know this.)

And then the Norse population will start growing....

Essentially, the Norse uses the available food resources far more efficiently. That means that at the point of contact, the Norse will massively outnumber the natives.

And... I don't think there were any agriculturalists in the Eastern North America around the time of Eric the Red. I think that came during the next 500 years. I could be wrong though.

All that is before looking at the situation with diseases...

Actually a longboat typically housed around fifty people so about the same, although assuming multiple ships go you got maybe two hundred settlers or so. Although do keep in mind the difference between a Longboat and a Knarr, Greenland and Iceland mostly had Knarrs and only the rich had longboats.

As for the number of Beothuk, I think they may have been larger than people thought during the Medieval warm period, at least around St. Johns where the soil is much more fertile and even Beothuk made rafts could exploit the massive amounts of fish in the Grand Banks.

This Rich area would logically also be the center of Norse Vinland for due to Iron Ore presence that could be seen on the bluffs from the sea
 
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Basically all of them were south of the northern Maritimes, I'm 99% sure. None in immediate contact with Vinland. Agriculture had been pretty well established for a few centuries at that point, although not as well established as it was in the 1500s (I'd guess). Some archaeology sources might hint at how well the traditions surrounding land use were developed at the time, I'm not sure. It seems to well developed in the 16th/early 17th century to be too new.

Of course, you won't be finding anything close to Cahokia in nowadays New England, but it does seem the village culture was pretty well developed in density especially before the epidemics struck.

I think the nearest NA population around the year 1000 who could be a challenge/block Norse expansion once established are the various Proto-Iroquois (the League was probably founded around 1120 based on my reading of history but many argue for a latter date) who were in upstate NY by this time and perhaps as far north as the St. Lawrence basin. Note I'm not talking future league members per see but also groups like the Erie, Neutral, the St Lawrence Indians Cartier encountered among others.

Reason for this is otl they were the most sophisticated farmers in the area, skilled warriors who also came up a solution of sorts to deal with disease, i.e. mass adoptions of conquered people into their culture, which might allow for skills to be shared, trade to be facilitated etc as well as keeping their numbers up.

Their weakness at this point they would be being deeply divided.
 
I think the nearest NA population around the year 1000 who could be a challenge/block Norse expansion once established are the various Proto-Iroquois (the League was probably founded around 1120 based on my reading of history but many argue for a latter date) who were in upstate NY by this time and perhaps as far north as the St. Lawrence basin. Note I'm not talking future league members per see but also groups like the Erie, Neutral, the St Lawrence Indians Cartier encountered among others.

Reason for this is otl they were the most sophisticated farmers in the area, skilled warriors who also came up a solution of sorts to deal with disease, i.e. mass adoptions of conquered people into their culture, which might allow for skills to be shared, trade to be facilitated etc as well as keeping their numbers up.

Their weakness at this point they would be being deeply divided.


Actually there is some evidence (don't ask for source, I've been looking for ages but I forgot where I read it) that the league was formed around 1000 A.D. or even before, although I would say around 1050 or 1100 but that's around the time that Norse are going to give a darn about what tribes that far inland are going to be doing and have significant enough numbers to do anything. (also posted on my TL ;) (alright I'll stop))
 
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