How Just His Hopes

Before I begin, I would like to credit Thande, and his timeline, Look to the West, for first introducing me to alternate history and for inspiring large parts of this timeline. I sincerely hope this timeline will reach the same heights of detail, plausibility, and interest that Look to the West has.

With that said, let me begin.
 
Prologue: Something Old, Something New

April 18, 2019. Temporary headquarters of TimeLine M Preliminary Exploration Team, location classified. Cpt. Janet Kline, seconded from British SAS, commanding officer.

Addressed to Director Stephen Rogers of the Thande Institute, Cambridge, United Kingdom.


The team has completed the preliminary one-month survey of the world that the Institute has designated 'TimeLine M'.

Most of the information we have garnered from this world is in the form of local history books, which the machine has translated into modern English, with a few exceptions. In spite of the relatively late POD (which has been dated by my lieutenants, Edward Kellock, Juan Panov, and Valery de Beistegui, to 1715), the languages of TLM are significantly different.

We have added our own observations in the form of footnotes, generally to clear up something not immediately obvious. We use the following abbrevations – ITTL (in this timeline), IOTL (in our timeline), OTL (our timeline), and TTL (this timeline), which Drs. Kellock and de Beistegui consider convenient.

An excerpt from a local history book about Peter the Great, which details what Dr. Kellock believes to be the point of divergence, is below – you will notice that it is largely OTL except for the very end...
 
Part #1: For Want of a Nail

From “Peter the Great – Founding of a Modern Russia” by Trevor Marrid

After having been sent to Germany to learn the art of warfare, Peter's son and heir Alexei returned to Russia in 1713. Having developed a deep-seated fear for his father, whom he had not seen for many years and had been raised to distrust, Alexei attempted to incapacitate himself and shoot himself in the hand to avoid a meeting. He missed.

This was not an isolated episode. Alexei had been raised by his (now-banished from court) mother, Eudoxia Lopukhina, a member of the staunchly conservative traditional Russian nobility Peter had done so much to fight. Even after she became a nun in 1698, and Alexei was forbidden to see her, Alexei was mainly upbrought[1] by men such as his confessor, Jacob Ignatiev, who had organized a meeting between Alexei and Eudoxia in 1706.

Once, when Alexei confessed to Ignatiev that he wished for Peter's death, Ignatiev replied that “God will forgive you; we all wish for his death.”

As conservative opposition to Peter increasingly rallied around Alexei, in 1715 Peter issued an ultimatum to Alexei: either become the son he wanted or he would be cut[2] from the succession. After speaking to his advisor, Alexander Kikin, Alexei asked Peter to be cut from the succession.

Unfortunately for Alexei, this was not satisfactory for Peter. There was absolutely no precedent to anyone being removed from the succession, except by becoming a monk, which Peter proceeded to ask Alexei to do.

Conveniently for Alexei, Peter then left Russia for six months, during which Alexei simply did not think about it. Upon his return, Peter demanded that Alexei enter a monastery.

The very prospect greatly frightened Alexei. To give up all his life, including his beloved mistress Afrosina, was unacceptable. Thus, on the advice of Kikin, in November 1716, Alexei fled Russia.

He arrived first at the court of the Hapsburg Emperor, storming into the bedroom of Vice Chancellor Schoenborn, begging him to be granted sanctuary. The following day, Emperor Charles VI refused.[3]

Alexei next went to George I, then Elector of Hanover in addition to being King of England and Scotland (together then known as Great Britain) in personal union. Although George was formally an ally of Peter the Great's Russia, George and Peter were known to be rivals, and George (who wished to increase the power of his electorate of Hanover), who was alarmed at the waxing power of Russia, jumped at the chance to increase his own power, and Alexei was hidden, incognito, first in Hanover; then, when the English[4] Parliament got wind of it, he was moved to England itself.

[1] TTL term meaning 'raised'; refers to children.
[2] 'To be cut' – 'to be removed'.
[3] The POD – everything up to this point has been OTL. IOTL, Alexis hid in Austria for 2 years.
[4] Technically, British.
 
Part #2: Rango

From “Peter the Great – Founding of a Modern Russia” by Trevor Marrid

At the beginning, Alexei's disappearance was not recognized; poor roads and communication could account for a delay of weeks. Nevertheless, it quickly became clear that the Peter had lost control of the heir to the throne. In January of 1717 he ordered Abraham Veselovsky, his ambassador to Great Britain, to search the country for Alexei[1].

Reinforcement for Veselovsky arrived in the form of the Captain of Peter's Guards, one Rumyantsov. Largely by bribery, they had discovered Alexei's hideout in a Scottish castle by March of 1717. Peter sent one Pyotr Tolstoy, a member of the Russian Senate and former ambassador to the Ottoman Empire, to retrieve Alexei.[2]

However, Alexei was then simply moved, resulting in a complicated cat-and-goose chase which ended with Tolstoy and Alexei seeing each other face-to-face in September of 1717; ironically, in the very same building Alexei had lived during the beginning of his exile.

Not only did Tolstoy's original beseechments[3] proved fruitless, but Alexei finally complained to the English[4] government. Although Parliament originally wanted to simply return him to Russia, King George I claimed that he would move him to Hanover before such a thing would occur.

When examining George I, one must always keep in mind that for him, England[5] was a tool with which to further Hanover; not the other way around; and the rise of Russia threatened Hanover's own position.

Defeated, Tolstoy returned to Russia, reporting to Peter that Alexei was being kept by the English[4] government.


From “The Diplomatic Revolution” by Alexander Hytten

George I's decision to continue to harbor Alexei, purposefully ruining relations with Russia, was met not without controversy. Considering previous Kings and their attempts to overrule Parliament (in the past century, the conflict had seen the death of one King and the overthrow of another), one might think George's successful attempt to use his absolute rule in Hanover to overrule Parliament might incur its wrath; however, opposition to the plan was led from outside the body.

The Prince of Wales had always been far more popular than the King; among other things, George spoke English. At the baptizing of George's second son, George William, the King insisted that the Duke of Newcastle be godfather. George (the son), who disliked Newcastle, insulted him at the ceremony. Newcastle misinterpreted the statements as an invitation to a duel. The angered King banished his heir from St. James's Palace and excluded him from all public ceremonies.[6]

The Prince of Wales, also angry at his father, became the centerpoint[7] of opposition to the King's policies. The King's decision to harbor Alexei incensed the Prince of Wales, who had his allies, Sir Robert Walpole and the Viscount Townshend, read his statements about it to Parliament; George pointed out, among other things, that a war with Russia would benefit only Hanover, and not England[5]; and then finally threatened (obviously hyperbolically) to flee to Russia himself and see if George liked it. Parliament applauded.

Soon after, in a near-unprecedented move, the King disinherited the Prince of Wales in favor of Wales's son, Frederick (who had been mostly raised by the King and had never before left Hanover). The legality of such a move was disputed by Parliament, who declared that George continued to be Prince of Wales and heir to the throne.


From “The War of the Spanish Succession - Epilogue” by Brendan Blanning

The Treaty of Utrecht had ceded the Spanish Netherlands, Milan, Naples, and Sardinia to Austria, whereas the Duke of Savoy was awarded the island of Sicily. By 1717, Britain, France, and Austria were planning to attempt to strengthen the Treaty by ceding Sicily to the Hapsburgs. Philip V of
Spain decided to use this a casus belli to attempt to recover Spain's Italian territories.

In 1717, Spain invaded Austrian Sardinia. Although Austria was at the moment otherwise busy with one of its perennial wars against the Ottomans, it concluded this war by 1718 with the Treaty of Passarowitz[8] and turned its attention to the Spanish invasion.

By then, the Spaniards had utterly subdued Sardinia, and Sicily except the city of Messina, to which they had laid siege.

The so-called War of the Quadruple Alliance began when France and the Netherlands entered the war on Austria's side. Great Britain had promised to do so, but they were distracted by a crisis in the Baltic.

The Austrians assembled an army in Naples, under Count Wirich Philipp von Daun, and sent it to relieve Messina; however, they were defeated by the Spaniards.

Two French attacks into northern Spain – one into the Basque provinces and one into Catalonia – were both successful, but forced to turn back due to disease.

The Austrians started a new offensive in Sicily, this time under Count Claude Florimond de Mercy, but they were defeated at the Battle of Francavilla and then failed in a second attempt to relieve Messina.[9]

At this point, however, Spanish fortunes began to decline, as Portugal declared war (the fourth member of the Quadruple Alliance). Unprepared for an attack on Galicia, the Portuguese captured Vigo (a small city on the border) as well as Pontevedra.[10]

There was a war in America as well. The French had captured Pensacola in May 1719, prompting a Spanish counterattack and retaking of the city in August of that year.

In March 1720, the French launched another assault into Catalonia, this one successful; with a decisive victory over the Spanish at the Battle of Sant Feliu.

A ceasefire was negotiated in April of 1720, after Philip dismissed his Prime Minister, Cardinal Alberoni.

The combatants met in the Hague to negotiate the end of the war. Spain agreed to give up Sardinia and Sicily, still under its control, in order to regain Catalonia; Sicily was given to Hapsburg Naples, while Sardinia was given to Savoy.

Portugal agreed to give up southern Galicia, which was under its control, for Spanish recognition of what the Portuguese claimed to be the boundaries of Brazil, including the disputed Misiones area. Also, France and Portugal's trading rights with Spain were greatly improved.[11]

[1] IOTL, Veselovsky was his ambassador to the Hapsburg dominions; however, ITTL he is unexpainably ambassador to Great Britain; it is one of the most obvious holes in Dr. Kellock's Schoenborn POD hypothesis.
[2] This closely matches the OTL sequence of events, when he was discovered in Italy and Tolstoy was sent to fetch him. IOTL, after his success in retrieving Alexei, Tolstoy became the head of the Torture Office and became well-known for his brutality, in spite of his advanced age (he was in his 80s).
[3] TTL term. 'Beseechments' – 'requests'.
[4] British.
[5] Britain.
[6] This paragraph is entirely OTL.
[7] Another TTL term. 'Centerpoint' refers to the center of a circle, but also to the most important person in any organization, or the most important part of anything generally.
[8] OTL.
[9] The war is going mostly OTL, but without Britain in it, there was no Battle of Cape Passaro, so the Spanish are having consequently more success.
[10] IOTL the Portuguese were neutral, and the British launched an attack into Galicia.
[11] This closely matches the OTL Treaty of the Hague (except for the Brazilian border disputes, of course).
 
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Just realized its a Quadruple Alliance anyway (not Triple) thanks to Portugal.

And thank you, Beedok, Ostost, and SavoyTruffle for the compliments.
 
Just realized its a Quadruple Alliance anyway (not Triple) thanks to Portugal.

And thank you, Beedok, Ostost, and SavoyTruffle for the compliments.

It was also a Quadruple Alliance in OTL, except it was Sardinia that was the fourth member.

Will we also see a War of the Polish Succession TTL?
 
Part #3: The Diplomatic Revolution

From “The Diplomatic Revolution” by Alexander Hytten

The original plan of George I was fairly simple. Previously, the Great Power dominating the Baltic had been Sweden – now, it seemed as if Russia was slowly taking over this role.[1]

George I wanted to create an alternate alliance consisting of the German states of Hanover, Denmark[2], Prussia, and Saxony (and, of course, the larger states of Great Britain and Poland-Lithuania that, at the time, were linked to Hanover and Saxony by personal union). George wanted to use the overwhelming strength of these states to force Russia and Sweden to come to a peace that would benefit him – with Sweden expelled from Germany but allowed to keep what it had lost to Russia (including Livonia, Estonia, Ingria, Karelia, and Finland). If either state disagreed, the crushing power of the British Navy would interfere. Or so George planned...

George saw the arrival of the Tsarevich Alexis as unexpected fortune – as further incentive for Russia to sign such a crushing treaty, and ensuring that in (what was thought to be) the near[3] future, a Hanoverian ally would come to the throne in Moscow. (Actually, the capital of Russia was St. Petersburg, but it was widely known Alexis intended to move it back to Moscow).

Unfortunately, Peter the Great saw the move as harboring a fugitive of the Russian state, and increasingly, in his mind, the main enemy was Britain and not Sweden...


From “Peter the Great – Founding of a Modern Russia” by Trevor Marrid

In 1718, the attention of Charles XII, the King of Sweden, was largely on the Norwegian front with Denmark.[4] After winning a decisive victory against the Norwegians at the Siege of Fredriksten[5], Swedes poured into Norway and quickly occupied most of the south, including the capital, Christiania – there was never any military campaign in the underpopulated Norwegian north.

The decisive Swedish victories in Norway proved to all that, although there was a large gash in the tiger's side, the tiger was still capable of attack...

From “Peter the Great – Founding of a Modern Russia” by Trevor Marrid

Unlike Charles himself (who refused any peace that was not victorious), Charles's Prime Minister[6] Georg Heinrich von Goertz understood that Sweden could not fight with both Russia and Germany simultaneously – peace had to be made with one side or the other. Thus, throughout the winter of 1717 and most of 1718, Goertz had led negotiations with both England[7] and Russia.

Goertz understood that it would be too detrimental to Swedish interests to lose both fronts; somewhere, there had to be a victory. And Goertz saw that Russia was united, and Germany was divided – and that, therefore, war against Germany would be easier.

During the winter of 1718, a Swedish diplomatic team headed by Goertz met on the island of Fasta Aaland with a Russian team headed by Andrei Osterman. Privately, Goertz knew that Charles' instructions were not only to not give up any land, but indeed to force Russia to pay Sweden tribute for 'starting an unjust war'.[8]

Goertz understood this was unrealistic, and instead informed them that Estonia, Ingria, and Karelia were negotiable (unlike Livonia and Finland). Quickly, the diplomats simply gave up Estonia and Ingria, but refused to give up Livonia (which Goertz had informed them was non-negotiable).[9]

However, Goertz ultimately agreed to give up Livonia in exchange for a full-scale military alliance with Russia – he had agreed to cede all four provinces in exchange for Russian aid in the war.

Thus, the Treaty of Fasta Aaland was signed on January 6, 1719. The treaty stipulated that Sweden would recognize Russian control of Livonia, Karelia, Ingria, and Estonia, in exchange for Russian support in Sweden's war against the four German states (Hanover, Denmark, Saxony, and Prussia) and Russia pulling out of occupied territory in Finland.

Peter ultimately agreed to the Treaty, largely because it was then conventional wisdom that war with England[7] and her allies was coming regardless, and Sweden was still a strong enough ally to not be worthless – additionally, Peter felt that this was the only way to get Russia's ownership of its Swedish conquests internationally recognized sans[10] Charles' death (Charles was much younger than Peter, and led a much healthier lifestyle).

Charles's approval of the Treaty of Fasta Aaland is more inexplicable. He had never betrayed any intention to make peace with Russia before his approval (it was widely thought that he had agreed to negotiation to stall for time against Russia). Some say it was because of the influence of Goertz[11]; others say Charles had a greater sense of realpolitik[12] than is usually attributed.


From “The Diplomatic Revolution” by Alexander Hytten

The Treaty of Fasta Aaland became known as the Diplomatic Revolution; and this title is deserved. Sweden and Russia – who had then been at war for nearly nineteen years nonstop – suddenly became close military allies. The plan of George of Hanover was foiled; but, more importantly, there were now two clear blocs in the Baltic, with conflicting interests and hostile relations – Hanover, Saxony, Prussia, and Denmark (and Poland and England[7]) against Russia and Sweden.

The Great Baltic War[13] was about to begin...

[1] This statement is very debatable.
[2] Scandinavia ITTL seems more widely seen as German – this has not been looked into.
[3] Peter frequently had debilitating illnesses, and throughout the 1710s he was often seen, throughout Russia and the rest of Europe, as being on his deathbed.
[4] Norway was widely seen, at the time, as part of Denmark.
[5] IOTL Charles died just before the battle began, necessitating a retreat; ITTL, Charles is unharmed, and the battle is a decisive Swedish victory.
[6] De facto, not de jure; referring to Charles's long exile in the Ottoman Empire, the Swedes referred to Goertz as the 'Grand Vizier' both in OTL and TTL.
[7] Britain.
[8] These are Charles' OTL instructions, and these negotiations really happened.
[9] IOTL Sweden's diplomats refused to give up Livonia even after Charles' death (though they did eventually sign it over to Russia).
[10] IOTL, 'sans' is a very common term used to mean 'without' – it's used far more often than OTL.
[11] Goertz was known for his remarkable ability to persuade King Charles.
[12] Strangely, this word evolved basically identically to OTL.
[13] ITTL, what we term the Great Northern War is termed the Russo-Swedish War (fighting in Denmark, Poland, and Saxony that did not include Russia is also stuck with this label).
 
So it's like what happened to the Habsburg Monarchy and France in OTL decades later. Interesting.

Now about the Habsburgs themselves, I'm wondering why they're so silent TTL.
 
Now I'm wondering if they win the war like in OTL, yet they'll be fighting again if the Polish question arises like in OTL.
 
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