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How Inevitable / Unlikely Was Canada?

I was listening Richard Gwyn talk about the second part of his John A. Macdonald bio, and he stated his belief that without John A. Canada never would have lasted.

http://youtu.be/cicS8WeXx3s

His point was that Canada at the time made no sense (immediately following confederation), and no rational observer would have bet on it lasting. Among his points:

- Canada had nearly no industry, and the protectionist policy it pursued IOTL was clearly against its immediate interests (cheaper just to buy from the US)
- Canada was in a depression and losing population to the US, while the US was full of beans after the Civil War
- While the US west was being rapidly populated, Canada was desperate for immigrants, but was nobody's first choice, and could do nothing to stop newcomers from heading south
- While the US trans-continental railroad was built to serve a ready-made market of hundreds of thousands on its west coast, Canada's west coast had only ~25k at the time!
- There hardly seemed any rational reason to build the railroad since transport through the US was easier anyhow
- There was hardly much support in Canada for Confederation: e.g. the Nova Scotia election immediately following 52/53 legislators elected were for leaving Canada!
- Britain really didn't care what Canada did - confederation or otherwise - so long as it didn't drag it into a war with the Americans

All that PLUS the French/English dynamic that's always strained the country.

Particularly in light of what a success Canada has turned out to be (arguably THE most successful major country in the world today), it's strange to think what an unlikely country it is (unless you think Richard is wrong?)

edit -- yes the thread title is mis-spelled sorry :)
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