How Inevitable is a US-Imperial Japan conflict in the 1940's if Germany forces peace in W. Europe?

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Any American aid to China will be offset by the extra resource's Japan can add to the fray, and without a war in Europe not even Japan is crazy enough to go on an offensively against the west.

Russia though... Japan might go for Russia. And if Russia is fighting a two fronted war she probably goes down in flames because the Persian corridor just can't handle the amount of Lend-Lease Russia needs to survive.

Sooner or later (probably later) Japan is going to get wore down from the endless fighting in China and America can hopefully try and negotiate some sort of settlement that lets Japan save face after so much spilled blood. A victorious Germany is a far, far greater threat to the free world than Japan could ever dream. So if America can pry Japan from German orbit it's a boon to the USA and a major blow to Germany.
 
It all depends on what happens, do butterflies allow for Japan to get most of the supplies cut off to Nationalists, and does that allow them to win in China? If so, Japan isn't going to do anything but consolidate it got all the resources it needs that going further south into Indochina or even plans for Pearl Harbour are no longer necessary.
 
realistically Germany could strike SOME type of accord with Vichy France but only a Phoney Peace with GB? the OP has war in Europe (shooting war) ending by Sept. 1940? Japan declined Pact of Steel and Axis Pact was not signed until late Sept.

always envision Germany trying to control Dutch (and Danish) colonies? would they even care about Japan and its aims in this scenario?

so my answer would be Japan has better than OTL chance of avoiding war with U.S., GB and U.S. may want to co-opt them as ally again or at least have them remain neutral and/or USSR if invaded or fearing invasion may do the same.

Yes but a couple of things that Germany might be thinking;
  • co-opting Japan would be a key element of the coalition to overrun the SU (providing that is their aim). Japan would be in a very strategic position at the SU's rear.
  • Why would Germany want the hassle of trying to manage the DEI colonies? They could just set up Japan (which is closer) to handle that side of the world. Germany will be busy with the SU territory they gain.
By the way good call on the "phony peace" with GB. I agree with you 100% that is what it would be.

have read that Japanese feared Germany would attempt to control the Dutch and French SE Asia colonies, not sure how valid IOTL but with early peace they might well try. (Italian East Africa across the Indian Ocean)

believe what the Germans encouraged the Japanese to do was attack Singapore, THAT might be potential division of colonies with Japanese seizing the British colonies (the end of Phoney Peace in 1941)
 
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If they do I expect the Japanese to occupy French Indochina and Dutch Indonesia.
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Either was a non starter for the US. It was the Japanese occupation of French Indo China that brought the US to economic crippling sanctions against Japan. The US economy was heavily dependant on global trade. Japanese policy in occupied China had made it clear a expanding Japanese empire was a economic problem for the US. If Japan is taking over European colonies the China Lobby is going to grow into a much more powerful Asia Lobby as US businesses see profits plummet in their Asia trade.

On the European side a peace that strips of control of Dutch or French colonies to Japan is in no one's interest. Better for Germany they have fixed cost access to the colonies via peace treaty than depend on prices set by the Zaibatsu who the Nazis have little influence over.

On the losers side losing the colonies makes a long term peace less likely. German permission for Japan's occupation of Indochina China was a key event in the French realizing a German dictated peace was going to be far worse than expected.
 
On the European side a peace that strips of control of Dutch or French colonies to Japan is in no one's interest. Better for Germany they have fixed cost access to the colonies via peace treaty than depend on prices set by the Zaibatsu who the Nazis have little influence over.

On the losers side losing the colonies makes a long term peace less likely. German permission for Japan's occupation of Indochina China was a key event in the French realizing a German dictated peace was going to be far worse than expected.

it is always posed that German invasion of USSR freed the Japanese to move south since the Soviets were otherwise engaged but it is also true the Germans were also diverted from any (potential) claims on the defeated countries colonies? i.e. they would have probably liked to direct oil from DEI.
 
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