How implausible or ASB would OTL WW2 be in a TL where France didn't fall?

The Fall of France in 1940 was by all accounts an incredibly lucky streak for Germany. Similarly, Germany's successes in Barbarossa were also incredibly lucky. Let's say in a TL where France never falls to the Nazis in 1940, someone tries to write a WW2 ATL which happens to be OTL WW2. In that context, would "OTL" sound very implausible, maybe even dismissed as ASB?

EDIT: For those of you misinterpreting the OP, I'm asking if OTL history would seen as ASB in an ATL where France doesn't fall.
 
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The Fall of France in 1940 was by all accounts an incredibly lucky streak for Germany. Similarly, Germany's successes in Barbarossa were also incredibly lucky. Let's say in a TL where France never falls to the Nazis in 1940, someone tries to write a WW2 ATL which happens to be OTL WW2. In that context, would "OTL" sound very implausible, maybe even dismissed as ASB?

In a context where Hitler explicitly declares he will never try to invade from Belgium and Netherlands again, and the German forces just kinda break against the Maginot Line before getting curb-stomped, while Japan decides that he doesn't really want all that crap in the Pacific anyway.

In short, in this TL, "WWII" is just really another Franco-German war.
 
Try this excellent Thread on this very site

In a context where Hitler explicitly declares he will never try to invade from Belgium and Netherlands again, and the German forces just kinda break against the Maginot Line before getting curb-stomped, while Japan decides that he doesn't really want all that crap in the Pacific anyway.

In short, in this TL, "WWII" is just really another Franco-German war.

Broken Sickle

In this ATL, the unexpected descion to create a reserve would make a near OTL "story" neither ASB nor evem implausible
 

ThePest179

Banned
Guys, what he's saying is "would OTL history be seen as ASB in an ATL where France doesn't fall?". He isn't saying France not falling is ASB, he's doing the opposite:

The Fall of France in 1940 was by all accounts an incredibly lucky streak for Germany. Similarly, Germany's successes in Barbarossa were also incredibly lucky. Let's say in a TL where France never falls to the Nazis in 1940, someone tries to write a WW2 ATL which happens to be OTL WW2. In that context, would "OTL" sound very implausible, maybe even dismissed as ASB?
 
The Fall of France in 1940 was by all accounts an incredibly lucky streak for Germany. Similarly, Germany's successes in Barbarossa were also incredibly lucky. Let's say in a TL where France never falls to the Nazis in 1940, someone tries to write a WW2 ATL which happens to be OTL WW2. In that context, would "OTL" sound very implausible, maybe even dismissed as ASB?


A lot of the problem now is that we understand in detail how blitzkrieg operations of the period can be counted. Some posters with a more thorough appreciation of the mad scramble to get the counter-stroke forces into position in time might point out how touch and go it was but many would be sceptical and that assumes that something similar to the operation we are used to studying was launched.

If it was not and someone were to point out that the French clearly did not expect an attack through the Ardennes many posters would be naturally wary of the plausibility of concealing armoured columns covering multiple adjoining roads and stretching tens of kilometres. The idea that Air Reconnaissance might miss one panzer division might get a pass but seven? The Germans were professionals there was a reason they did not try anything so naively foolish.

That covers just two of the more likely ways in which the German's could have failed and it is the large number of failure points that makes it so interesting a field of study and yes would likely have made those dwelling in a more 'probable' timeline so sceptical of it coming off.
 
Guys, what he's saying is "would OTL history be seen as ASB in an ATL where France doesn't fall?". He isn't saying France not falling is ASB, he's doing the opposite:

oh, read too quickly. :eek:


I guess it wouldn't be seen as ASB, but very unlikely. It partly depends on how well researched the problems between civil and military authority in France is ITTL, but probably it is fairly researched giving hints for the contra-factual historians of TTL to assume that it could've been worse. It also depends on just how long Germany holds ITTL, if they fall quickly the "success" of the invasion of USSR might be seen as ASB but if they hold on at least to the spring of 42 (unlikely) it might just be called a wank rather than ASB.
 
I suppose people would call it a German wank and call it out on its supposed implausibility. The Nazis were insanely lucky and the French leadership was very incompetent. The combination of the two lead to rather bizarre outcomes, much like the Japanese conquest of literally all of SEA.
 
oh, read too quickly. :eek:


I guess it wouldn't be seen as ASB, but very unlikely. It partly depends on how well researched the problems between civil and military authority in France is ITTL, but probably it is fairly researched giving hints for the contra-factual historians of TTL to assume that it could've been worse. It also depends on just how long Germany holds ITTL, if they fall quickly the "success" of the invasion of USSR might be seen as ASB but if they hold on at least to the spring of 42 (unlikely) it might just be called a wank rather than ASB.

Earlier rearmament even by 12 months would see the British and or French Armed forces in far better shape -

12 months of additional training and 1941 levels of production would see an improved French army and a larger British army (possibly 25-30 Front line Divisions) - the slim margin where the German army was larger than the British and French Armies would be virtually eliminated by May 1940
 
Earlier rearmament even by 12 months would see the British and or French Armed forces in far better shape -

12 months of additional training and 1941 levels of production would see an improved French army and a larger British army (possibly 25-30 Front line Divisions) - the slim margin where the German army was larger than the British and French Armies would be virtually eliminated by May 1940

yes, if the POD is an earlier rearmament, Germany is stomped. However, if the POD is a slightly better deployment of allied troops (see Blunted Sickle) then Germany will hold longer, possibly into 42, unless a coup throws everything away, then Germany may lose in 1940 or 41.
 
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