How fast can Japan lose WWII?

Well, you can probably speed things up by killing off Mac (or, I'll be less morbid, removing him from command) ASAP so we avoid the needless diversion to the Philippines... :)
 
Well, you can probably speed things up by killing off Mac (or, I'll be less morbid, removing him from command) ASAP so we avoid the needless diversion to the Philippines... :)

Philippines will happen with or without Mac. It was a significant US Territory before the war and the US public would want it liberated ASAP with or without Mac. The political reality is that it wouldn't be bypassed. It would look too much like abandonment for the US public to allow. National pride required it to be liberated. Bypassing minor islands no one has ever heard of is one thing, the Philippines are another.
 
Well I imagine a good start is the Kido Butai finding themselves within gunnery range of the Pacific Fleet out on exercises at dawn on December 7th.


You would expect the Kido Butai to spot them first though. Maybe if all their spotter planes were shot down before they can get a message off?
 
You would expect the Kido Butai to spot them first though. Maybe if all their spotter planes were shot down before they can get a message off?

How good are those spotter planes going to be at spotting ships in the dark? At any rate, Six carriers, two fast battleships, and two heavy cruisers are going to die extremely fast if the sun comes up just as eight American Battleships stumble into range of what is obviously a sneak attack on their anchorage.
 
How good are those spotter planes going to be at spotting ships in the dark? At any rate, Six carriers, two fast battleships, and two heavy cruisers are going to die extremely fast if the sun comes up just as eight American Battleships stumble into range of what is obviously a sneak attack on their anchorage.

True, if they are lucky and catch the Japanese flat footed it is going to go very bad for them. They might be able to take a BB down with them but if they are in 16" gun range those carriers are going down.
 
let's us put not war in europe or just an german vs russia affair, japan fiasco was japan alone.

So we've the pearl harbor attack, as people suggest either kido butai is sunken early or midway,etc is worse, we can have a pacific full of ships for 1942 with not war in europe.

1943: torch esque operation in philipines with full soldiers and marines everywhere.

1944: D-Day and X-day in japan and korea thanks not european distraction, for either christmas 1944 or later japan will be fully defeated.
 
The opening campaign was very tightly planned and on a shoestring. If something goes massively wrong early on, it could seriously undermine the whole offensive.

The big problem is that, even with an earlier success, unconditional surrender probably requires the bomb (which won't be ready before OTL) or an invasion of the Home Islands* (which will also probably delay things quite a bit, especially since a less threatening Japan increases the argument to focus on Europe, and I doubt even the US can pull off both Overlord and Downfall in the same year).

*Soviet intervention won't happen before Germany is defeated, which is unlikely to be sped up much.
 
True, if they are lucky and catch the Japanese flat footed it is going to go very bad for them. They might be able to take a BB down with them but if they are in 16" gun range those carriers are going down.
Will this however result in an unconditional surrender? With a reversal as early as that, how are the chances that the Japanese are thrown so badly off their shoestring timetable that they start to consider to negotiate a peace? I do not necessarily mean right on the spot, but possibly down the line.

I admit I have no idea how much of a blow it would have been to lose these Japanese carriers and whatever went down with them. But if this results in butterflies big enough that they stall at Singapore and get massive problems with taking out the Philippines then the whole affair to attack the US, Britain and the Dutch East Indies is just one unmitigated disaster from the get go.

Am I blowing this out of proportion? Or would this have been so bad that the Japanese will consider withdrawing from China and seek peace terms with the West? With a whole lot of "stab in the back" myth later on in Japan and blame on the IJN coming from the IJA. "We'd won China if the Navy had not let us down!"
 
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The opening campaign was very tightly planned and on a shoestring. If something goes massively wrong early on, it could seriously undermine the whole offensive.

The big problem is that, even with an earlier success, unconditional surrender probably requires the bomb (which won't be ready before OTL) or an invasion of the Home Islands* (which will also probably delay things quite a bit, especially since a less threatening Japan increases the argument to focus on Europe, and I doubt even the US can pull off both Overlord and Downfall in the same year).

*Soviet intervention won't happen before Germany is defeated, which is unlikely to be sped up much.

^^^^^^this
 
^^^^^^this

The assumption would be with Japan being curb-stomped right at the start Hitler won't declare war on the US and FDR would have a hard time getting a DOW against Germany. With the US totally focused on Japan and with the Japanese fleet virtually destroyed at the start the US can blockade Japan far earlier. I think we are looking at a "starve them out" scenario. I didn't say this couldn't get ugly.
 
Mark XIV torpedoes that work like designed from the get go would go a long way to putting them further behind then they were IOTL. Being able to sink ships from day 1 makes everything speed up.
 
The Malayan campaign was ruined by incompetent leadership, if it went well Japan would have a really hard time covering all her commitments made in the early weeks of the war. If she loses a good number of heavy ships in the opening weeks then it won't take until late 1942 to stabilise and late 1943 to roll back. I think that with more setback and some heavy ship losses in the Malayan campaign the Pacific war would easily be finished before the European war.
 
If the Phillipines and Malaya defenses are competently run they hold out longer. If the Phillipines air force isn't mostly destroyed on 8 Dec, it can do some interdiction of Japanese moves toward the Dutch East Indies. Combined with the functioning Mk XIV torpedoes suggested earlier leading to increased tanker sinkings. Japan runs out of oil in 1943.

If Japan runs out of oil by late 1943, it isn't doesn't much whether or not it surrenders because it really can't do much.
 
Several PODs

The obvious one is that the US are forewarned some how before the morning of 7th Dec

The RN suffers fewer losses and / or German Naval losses are higher (1 or both of the twins are lost off Norway for example) and the RN is able to provide a stronger commitment to the far east in late 41 - this screws up the Japanese assault in Malaya as the RN is able to provide a far stronger and better balanced fleet.

A Neutral Italy - by what ever cause - this inflicts several changes

No Taronto attack by the RN - therefore the Japanese do not get to see how effective a harbour attack can be - or the need for specialised modifications to torpedo's.

The RN is far far stronger without Italy being in the war and more of the British Army and Royal Air forces 'first eleven' can be sent east along with far greater global communication and logistics due to the Med/Suez being 'open' - this might prevent for example the loss of detailed intelligence made available to Japan after a German raider captured a British Merchant ship - which did not deep six the diplomatic pouch which contained a very detailed account of all the weakness in Malaya!!!!!

Another pod could be some sort of intelligence coup - an infiltration of the Tortoise Society in Malaya by British intel builds up a picture of an impending attack and they use the turned assets to feed counter intel or a disaffected Japanese officer or bureaucrat turned by one of the various allied intel organisations.

Many Japanese Officers and bureaucrat's had worked in the Western nations and many of them 'openly' admired their achievements. Add in a reason for despondency - perhaps a member of their family or a loved superior assassinated (a lot of that went on in the 30s) - many reasons for someone to turn traitor.
 
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