How far could Vinland grow?

Flubber

Banned
Maybe all thats needed... (snip of the usual stuff)


Everything you listed existed in the OTL and none of it lured more people across the Atlantic to Vinland. The fish were there, but Europe wasn't fished out yet. Farmland was there, but you could still grab land closer to home in Europe. Furs were there, but European stocks hadn't collapsed and again were easier to obtain. The list is always the same and the result is always the same as the OTL's: Not enough people move to Vinland to make it viable.

That's why I always say we've got to force more people across. Some bigwig on the losing side of some power struggle, needs to go into exile with a herd of followers, some catastrophe needs to make the people of Iceland bug out, some kind of religious douchebaggery about how to open boiled eggs needs to sends people fleeing the stake.

Something is needed to force people across because the OTL lure wasn't enough.
 
Everything you listed existed in the OTL and none of it lured more people across the Atlantic to Vinland. The fish were there, but Europe wasn't fished out yet. Farmland was there, but you could still grab land closer to home in Europe. Furs were there, but European stocks hadn't collapsed and again were easier to obtain. The list is always the same and the result is always the same as the OTL's: Not enough people move to Vinland to make it viable.

That's why I always say we've got to force more people across. Some bigwig on the losing side of some power struggle, needs to go into exile with a herd of followers, some catastrophe needs to make the people of Iceland bug out, some kind of religious douchebaggery about how to open boiled eggs needs to sends people fleeing the stake.

Something is needed to force people across because the OTL lure wasn't enough.

What about the wine idea? I don't think Scandinavia at the time had a source of wine that they controlled themselves, that strikes me as atleast an option.
 
The question now becomes how do we force more people across the Atlantic to Vinland? There's nothing to lure them there, no quick riches of whatever sort, so what's going to force them there?

Iron ore and lumber for Iceland; possibly people fleeing religious turmoil in 10th century Iceland.
 

Flubber

Banned
What about the wine idea?

Ask yourself this: Did to prospect of Scandinavian-controlled vinyards lure enough settlers to "Vin"land in the OTL?

With beer and mead in the mix, how much wine did Scandinavians actually drink? Was it commonplace or just an affectation among the upper classes? We're talking about ~1000 CE too, so there's no religious pressure for a steady wine supply; i.e. Mass.

There's the climate too. England regularly produced wines during this period, so you've a known supply along known trade routes already filling demand.

Once again, the lure isn't there. Faeelin's excellent summation still stands; it's a good place to be poor but not a good place to grow rich.
 
If this is building on the Vinland Sagas so discover of North America is at about 1000 AD, Iceland and Greenland are waystations rather than sources of much immigration or export markets. But the Norse control Ireland, much of England & Scotland (remember 1066 is various Viking armies clashing under Alfred and William for England), Normandy in France, Denmark, Finland, the Volga River and Moscow (Rus meaning Viking) and that's far more population to draw from for emigration. Lots of warring places, pagans fleeing Catholicism, losing factions, etc...so the English and Gaels would already be coming to America as part of the Vinland emigrations along probably many from the Germanic states etc. and Bristol, Dublin, Glasgow, Calais, Copenhagen, etc. would become major embarkation ports several centuries earlier.

North America's population grew quite a bit faster than Europe's from much better nutrition (far more game meat, potatoes, corn, squash, beans, pumpkins, nuts, berries, etc....potatoes' broad adoption in Europe raised it's population 40% in a short period by addressing Vitamin C and other deficiencies along with yield, so Vinland's population should naturally increase like America's did in the 1600-1800's. A healthier place where your kids survive childhood at much greater rates, grow taller noticeably, and have endless opportunities is quite a lure for the same people who make ideal settlers in new lands.

Bubonic plague, typhus (traveling on Norwegian Ship Rats' pest), measles, chickenpox, mumps, whooping cough, syphilis, all sorts of murderous plagues beyond smallpox has a high passive survival rate in contaminated apparel even if the host is long dead. Maybe it's a more gradual wave than what the Spanish triggered but the Pilgrims survived at Plymouth because an earlier trading vessel's plague delivery had killed nearly everyone for a vast distance (hence the lone survivor Squanto's friendliness and getting already planted and cleared farmfields from the now dead locals.)

England had already used up much of it's best timber by then, the beginning of the coal barges from Newcastle's mines, and ship's timbers for long keels, tall masts, etc. have always been a long-distance trade good since the Phoenician lumberjacks started selling the giant cedar trees of Lebannon 3,500+ BCE. Ship's timbers and shipbuilding are big exports of New England's coastal forests and ports OTL from the 1600's forward. The St. Lawrence River Valley and the coasts of the Great Lakes would make a lot of sense for ship travel (and why Viking artifacts and accounts refer to them) opening up world-class copper, hematite iron ore, etc. while fitting well with the Viking's skillsets, knowledgebase, defensive measures, and dominating the competing tribes in longboats vs. canoes.

Figure the present states and provinces at least along the coasts, islands, and key rivers eventually of Southeastern Canada, New England, New York and Pennsylvania, probably Maryland and Virginia given their natural harbors, and the Great Lakes region. Until there's a road system, water travel rules and the Viking longboats' abilities to use rivers given their shallow draft would be quite a bit different for settlement and trade patterns with their cargo ships likely developing much faster and larger than OTL with the transAtlantic demands on their capacity.

Spain would probably be also-ran as it's still centuries away from fighting off Moorish control. Or it's Islamic Spain, Algerian and Moroccan ships/pirates etc. that show up within a few decades at most rather than 500 years later like 1492.
 
Normandy in France, Denmark, Finland, the Volga River and Moscow (Rus meaning Viking) and that's far more population to draw from for emigration. Lots of warring places, pagans fleeing Catholicism, losing factions, etc

Eh... I don't see it; the main settlers would be Icelandic, at least initially. Look at who settled in iceland.

There are no potatoes in medieval North America.
 
Everything you listed existed in the OTL and none of it lured more people across the Atlantic to Vinland. The fish were there, but Europe wasn't fished out yet. Farmland was there, but you could still grab land closer to home in Europe. Furs were there, but European stocks hadn't collapsed and again were easier to obtain. The list is always the same and the result is always the same as the OTL's: Not enough people move to Vinland to make it viable.

That's why I always say we've got to force more people across. Some bigwig on the losing side of some power struggle, needs to go into exile with a herd of followers, some catastrophe needs to make the people of Iceland bug out, some kind of religious douchebaggery about how to open boiled eggs needs to sends people fleeing the stake.

Something is needed to force people across because the OTL lure wasn't enough.

Well You could have a good many of the Greenlanders from the Western settlement depart for it once competion from the the Inuit combined with decreasing temperatures make life that little bit harder than perhaps say in an existing Vinland settlement that has peaceful relations with its native neighbours because of its abundant romm to grow. this is a better option than moving to the Eastern settlement or sticking it out there to extinction.

With the onset of the little ice age many from Greenland would probably see an existing Vinland as a preferable place to be...not all of course... the Eastern settlement would probably survive this time around because of its continuing trade and dependence on imports from Vinland. and as a transhipment point for luxury goods to and from Iceland and Bergen through Leifsbudir to Vinland.

Its probably the one single large influx thats probably all but guaranteed.
 
Potatoes come the pre-Incan farmers in Peru & Bolivia (as do tomatoes, peppers, etc.) and had come North at some point in a few varieties called "Indian Potatoes" up here. Viking ships traveling down the Mississippi River and into the Gulf would trigger a lot of "The Columbian Exchange" a few centuries earlier. Spuds would be as significant then to malnutrition, scurvy, and carb load for heavy physical work as they were a few centuries later.

Iceland's always been pretty sparsely populated and wasn't an especially well-established Norwegian colony by 1000 AD just as Greenland was quite new. Stepping stones between Europe and North America are all I see for them, like coaling station islands in the Pacific. But the Norse had control over much of the British Isles and were major traders throughout Europe as far South as Constantinople so word would have spread and people who wanted to leave Europe for Viking lands could be drawn from a far greater population base than Iceland.

The Plagues that kept killing a third to half of the European population would be a motivator too, like the Irish potato famine was when there was someplace to flee to as there's nothing like losing one's family and friends to disconnect one from where "home" was.
 
One of the peninsulas in Newfoundland would liekly be the first site of the settlement. The indigenous pre-Boethuk population on the island number no more than a few thousand and live a hunter-gatherer lifestyle, so contact with them may not be so frequent. If warfare could be avoided until there are several hundred Norse settled in the area, it could be secure enough to effectively displace the "skraelingr" in that one region of the island before clearing forests to build farmsteads.

This. The entire Afrikaans ethnic group orginally came from something like 1000 people, and I don't think its totally implausible for that many people to come from Scandinavia. Once they had a firm foothold on the island where they could build farms, the population will grow rapidly.

Beyond that, though...it probably still looses contact with the rest of Europe during the Little Ice Age, especially if the Greenland colonies fail as they did OTL.* It also won't be nearly as powerful as later-day European colonists were-it won't benefit from disease among Native Americans nearly as much, and its technological advantage (especially over groups like the Iroquois) will be a whole lot less. Its quite possible that Norse metallurgy and other technologies wind up spreading to some Native groups (especially ones that already have agriculture).

Overall, I think the effect will be that when Europeans start making it over the Atlantic after 1500, they find Newfoundland inhabited by an isolated, technologically backward Norse culture that possibly has a few colonies in places like Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and the mouth of the Saint Lawrance. The surrounding Indian tribes might be more advanced (though I doubt this will help in the long run). 200 years of cultural isolation might have had some very...weird effects, and its highly possible that, for example, the form of Christianity (assuming Vinland is Christian) might have drifted so far away from that in Europe that, once Europeans run into it again, it immediately gets declared heretical.

*Though ITTL, the Greenlanders might wind up abandoning their settlements and migrating to Vinland once things start going pear-shaped. Could boost Newfoundland's population.
 

Flubber

Banned
Well You could have a good many of the Greenlanders from the Western settlement depart for it once competion from the the Inuit combined with decreasing temperatures make life that little bit harder than perhaps say in an existing Vinland settlement that has peaceful relations with its native neighbours because of its abundant romm to grow. this is a better option than moving to the Eastern settlement or sticking it out there to extinction.


As you note, if a Vinland settlement is already in existence departing Greenland for it once the Inuit and climate make Greenland less and less hospitable is a no-brainer.

That will depend on there being an existing Vinland settlement for the Greenlanders to emigrate to and that brings us right back to the original question: How do we lure or force more people across the Atlantic to settle Vinland?
 
As you note, if a Vinland settlement is already in existence departing Greenland for it once the Inuit and climate make Greenland less and less hospitable is a no-brainer.

That will depend on there being an existing Vinland settlement for the Greenlanders to emigrate to and that brings us right back to the original question: How do we lure or force more people across the Atlantic to settle Vinland?

Correct, existing was implied but yes it would have to exist. But that simply needs a charismatic figure taking enough initiative to establish a permanent settlement or exiled along with followers beyond Iceland.

Leifsbudir was a waystation, and stopping point for trips to the inland to gather wood and supplies before heading back to Greenland. simply have the need for those trips continue for a long enough period and have the Greenlander diet evolve to include more fish as a dietary stapl( they continued the usual Norse practice of grazing cattle and grains rather than relying on the sea like the Inuit and the natives) and it could become a more permanent settlement on the way to fishing outports on teh Avalon peninsula and lumber gathering posts inland. This means establishing friendly relations with the natives though at some point. Otherwise permanent settlement in the early stages would simply be too hazardous and result in them being wiped out by the natives. The norse may have the advantage of ironworking on their side, but the natives have numbers. All they really need is to land somewhere where the natives do not have a substantial presenceeither through depopulation or native warfare and stay their long enough to gain a foothold.

the French came to the St. lawrence when it had been depopulated, probably through a combination of disease and warfare. The example of the pilgrims has already been stated. so its not that hard. The inital permanent settlements though would remain small for several generations though. Until Fish becomes a major dietary staple for something other than religious purposes. or the advantage of building their own ships and working the metals near by for their own purposes rather than transporting them for rather meagre returns.

Even at a modest rate of growth of 2 percent inclusive of immigration ( which would mean a handful of people at best making the journey on an annual basis). Would transform 100 indivduals to 38000 over the course of 300 years. The natives could also have larger more resilient populations as well by that time through their continuous contact with these settlements.
Montagnais, Naskapi, Beothuk, Maliseet and Miq'maq and perhaps the iroquois of the Hochelaga Arch. and perhaps the Penobscots stand to benefit from this continuous though sporadic contact. Which would then filter to their neighbours, the Abenaki, Pennacook, Naragansetts and perhaps the Mohawks and Ottawas.
 
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Flubber

Banned
But that simply needs a charismatic figure taking enough initiative to establish a permanent settlement or exiled along with followers beyond Iceland.


Getting a permanent Vinland settlement simply needs a charismatic figure... or simply just one of so many other simple changes...

And yet it somehow didn't manage to happen in the OTL for thousands and thousands of years.

Strange, don't you think?
 

Flubber

Banned
Thousands and thousands of years?


Sure.

Paleolithic migrations to the Americas from Asia and the high latititudes took place perhaps as far back as 16,000 BCE, yet apart from the two Greenland settlements no permanent settlement form Europe occured until after 1492 CE.

A surprisingly long delay for something so apparently very simple.
 
Population, by the time England started settling the America's Vinlanders would outnumber them by a lot and attempt to seize it would be difficult at best. You yourself have commented on how hard it is to send large numbers of people to the America's early on.

And it's hard to have "Vinlanders outnumbering them by a lot" as well.

Sure, something like the Mayflower will be outnumbered - but English armies? Not so much.

That's the problem I'm trying to raise - what stops England from seizing it the way European colonies were seized?
 
Getting a permanent Vinland settlement simply needs a charismatic figure... or simply just one of so many other simple changes...

And yet it somehow didn't manage to happen in the OTL for thousands and thousands of years.

Strange, don't you think?

Simply because It didn't or isn't known to have happened for us, does not mean it could not.

There are afterall few if any records beyond the Sagas to go from.
 

Flubber

Banned
Simply because It didn't or isn't known to have happened for us, does not mean it could not. There are afterall few if any records beyond the Sagas to go from.


Forgetting the word "permanent" are we? ;)

Seriously, a failed effort is still a failure whether records come down to us or not.
 
Simply because It didn't or isn't known to have happened for us, does not mean it could not.

There are afterall few if any records beyond the Sagas to go from.

The problem is why it does happen in TTL when all the reasons given for it to happen didn't matter OTL. Why are they stronger influences?
 
And it's hard to have "Vinlanders outnumbering them by a lot" as well.

Sure, something like the Mayflower will be outnumbered - but English armies? Not so much.

That's the problem I'm trying to raise - what stops England from seizing it the way European colonies were seized?

Erm, what COULD England/Great Britain seize?

Yes. They did take Quebec - twice.

First time, in 1629, the population of Quebec was guess what? 100.

After England lost Quebec, the next time they managed to seize it was 1760.

The population of Quebec then was 60 000.

The population of 13 Colonies then was 1,5 millions.

For a century between 1630 and 1760, the few thousand Quebec French successfully defended themselves against the more numerous Englishmen.

The Acadian French were just a few thousands. Again, it took the English a long time to dislodge them. Quite sparsely populated margins of Spanish Main resisted English conquest for a long time - Florida till 1818, Texas till 1835, California till 1846...

Consider that Norse Greenland had 4000 souls by 1100. And nowhere to expand.

The English did not, in OTL, conquer Iceland, or Faroes, or Norway, or Archangelsk. That despite complete lack of bastioned fortresses defending Iceland or Faroes.

IMO, with a founding population of a few thousand on a peninsula of Newfoundland by 1100, completely feasible without any push back in Europe - the settlers of Greenland came from Iceland, not Norway or British Isles like the settlers of Iceland, and for 11th century Greenlanders the lure of useful timbers and farmlands that really grow grain would be enough of a pull - we are speaking for hundreds of thousands of Norse in Maritimes by 1492. Plus, quite probably, hundreds of thousands of Christian, and Iroquois speaking, peasants.
 
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