How far could Vinland grow?

[ATL Czar]

This may've been asked before (in which case I apologise) but in the case of a successful Vinland, how far could it plausibly expand across North America, and where?

Also, what would've happened when the likes of Spain and England turned up in North america circa 1492? Where would they establish their colonies?

 

[Elfwine]

First question is how you even have a successful Vinland. As in, what allows it to succeed.

Second is how much it interacts with Europe.

Third - why would it, barring butterflies, have any impact on where Spain and England place their colonies?

There's also the issue of how much nearly five centuries of butterflies impact there even being a "Spain", but that ties into #2.

 

[ATL Czar]

First question is how you even have a successful Vinland. As in, what allows it to succeed.

Second is how much it interacts with Europe.

Third - why would it, barring butterflies, have any impact on where Spain and England place their colonies?

There's also the issue of how much nearly five centuries of butterflies impact there even being a "Spain", but that ties into #2.

Well first, I'd say that the first Vinlanders would maintain lukewarm relations with the skraelings, instead of killing them on first sight in OTL. An exchange of information on metal working for food and skraeling farming techniques is almost certain to happen, giving the Vinlanders a way to survive. Combine this with Leif Erikson advertising Vinland to Greenland and/or Iceland leads to a small income of settlers/refugees which gives the colony a sufficient population to grow.

Second, I'd say that up until circa 1492, I'd say that Europe wouldn't know about Vinland. A possibility is that Scandinavia may keep in secret trade with Vinland, unknown to the rest of Europe but I'd think Vinland would be isolated from Europe completely, making European history go roughly the same as OTL.

Third, Spain's colonies should be roughly OTL, but all this depends on where Vinland expands to. However, take New France, which was founded and centred along the St. Lawrence river, where Vinland is almost certain to expand. What's more, England may have to build different colonies than OTL, depending on where Vinland expands to.

 

[Elfwine]

Third, Spain's colonies should be roughly OTL, but all this depends on where Vinland expands to. However, take New France, which was founded and centred along the St. Lawrence river, where Vinland is almost certain to expand. What's more, England may have to build different colonies than OTL, depending on where Vinland expands to.

What's to stop England from seizing Vinland?

 

[Lysandros Aikiedes]

Having a successfully-settled Norse colony in North America is one thing, but that notion alone won't mean that none of the European kingdoms won't conquer it.

One of the peninsulas in Newfoundland would liekly be the first site of the settlement. The indigenous pre-Boethuk population on the island number no more than a few thousand and live a hunter-gatherer lifestyle, so contact with them may not be so frequent. If warfare could be avoided until there are several hundred Norse settled in the area, it could be secure enough to effectively displace the "skraelingr" in that one region of the island before clearing forests to build farmsteads.

If the Norse Vinlanders become Catholics early on and maintain contact with Europe via Iceland, that might give some pause in any plans to conquer a Christian state, although, if it was excommunicated for some reason, or if an ATL Protestant movement takes place, it could come to pass that countries like England may view Vinland as a potential colony, assuming it still has a relatively low population density. Although, if it becomes Christian early on before the age of colonialism, it would be well-enough known for people from northern Europe to travel to and settle. The Hanseatic League may direct some of their trading ships there.

If the first Vinlanders remain Pagan, then the region could become a valuable source of materials with Iceland, in terms of timber and furs. And if, for whatever reason, Iceland remains itself Pagan, then some Pagans from Scandinavia, under increased pressure by their rulers to convert, may leave Denmark, Sweden and Norway and end up in Iceland as a likely haven. After a while, becomes apparent to the new Pagan refugees of Iceland's limited landownership among the Gothar-class, so some may learn about Vinland and make the decision whether or not to go there. If commercial contact is maintained with Europe, they just be able to access some of the technological breakthroughs going on in Europe, though they may only get things like gunpowders possibly decades after everyone else.

But to have a reasonable level of commerce with Europe, they need some exotic things which Europe may need or simply desire. Iceland really needs little more than just furs and building materials, and would become dependent on Vinland for those. If the Vinland Norse sail through the St Lawrence River, they may get to meet Native Americans with squash, corn and tobacco. With these, than direst trade with the authorities in Europe would be likely.

There's no guarantee of an ATL Vinland become a formidable regional power to challenge European intervention by the 1400-1500's, but these may get it off to a respectable footing when the time comes.

 

[Faeelin]

What's to stop England from seizing Vinland?

Mmm. It's hard to say and it really depends on how Vinland turns out. I have this image of the Vinlanders playing the role of native Siberians in a replica of the Russian conquest of the Steppe.

 

[amphibulous]

But to have a reasonable level of commerce with Europe, they need some exotic things which Europe may need or simply desire. Iceland really needs little more than just furs and building materials, and would become dependent on Vinland for those. If the Vinland Norse sail through the St Lawrence River, they may get to meet Native Americans with squash, corn and tobacco. With these, than direst trade with the authorities in Europe would be likely.

There is not going to be a long distance trade in any foodstuff other than spices and maybe wine in this period. It is just too expensive and dangerous to transport squash across the Atlantic; no one would be willing to pay enough to make it worthwhile.

Even tobacco is highly dubious until centuries of improvement in shipbuilding. Plus - what are the vikings going to do for labour? Grow it themselves? It's a brutal and unhealthy business, which is why slaves were used on OTL. Take Indian slaves? In the massive numbers needed? There go relations with the neighbours, who easily have the power to wipe the Vikings out.

 

[whiteyfats]

What if they brought over the plagues earlier, and by the time the Euros arrived, the Natives had bounced back, with some slight immunity?


Sorry if that's stupid, I'm new to this.

 

[Faeelin]

It's not a bad idea, but building immunity is hard. Note that Faroes, etc. populations were also hit pretty hard by smallpox.

 

[Lysandros Aikiedes]

There is not going to be a long distance trade in any foodstuff other than spices and maybe wine in this period. It is just too expensive and dangerous to transport squash across the Atlantic; no one would be willing to pay enough to make it worthwhile.

Even tobacco is highly dubious until centuries of improvement in shipbuilding. Plus - what are the vikings going to do for labour? Grow it themselves? It's a brutal and unhealthy business, which is why slaves were used on OTL. Take Indian slaves? In the massive numbers needed? There go relations with the neighbours, who easily have the power to wipe the Vikings out.

The Frost Grape is found in Quebec and New Brunswick, so they could get round to harvesting them. The veggies would only be a small part of their exports across the Atlantic. As for tobacco, I figured they would just buy it off the inland tribes.

Ship-building would in any event be a priority among the Vinlanders, as long as they're trading across the Atlantic. They'd have more than enough timber for that.

As for the natives cultures, The ancestors of the Boethuk are very few and their numbers spread thinly across the island of Newfoundland. If the Norse successfully establish a foothold on the island, than in fifty years, with dozens of people arriving every few years, they'll come to outnumber the original inhabitants. The Algonquian tribes on the north-east are mostly scattered clans of hunter-gatherers, who don't have the ability to permanently reject the Norse, who could take the time to find out much about them to play them off against each other. And for the Iroquois further inland, the Norse would have to take them seriously, as they have adopted agriculture around the turn of the millennium and live in larger tribes. If the Norse are after slaves, they could purchase enemy captives from the Iroquois' wars against each other, or selectively raid against coastal settlements and camps along the Atlantic seaboard.

 

[whiteyfats]

It's not a bad idea, but building immunity is hard. Note that Faroes, etc. populations were also hit pretty hard by smallpox.

Yes, it's hard

But some is better than none, and losing, to pull a number out of my ass, 30-40% has to better than how much they lost in OTL.

 

[twovultures]

What if they brought over the plagues earlier, and by the time the Euros arrived, the Natives had bounced back, with some slight immunity?

It's possible, though it requires some conditions. Vinland must maintain contact with Europe, and simultaneously keep and expand contact with mainland Native Americans, the further south the better.

Once diseases hit Vinland from Iceland (Smallpox came in the 1240's, measles aren't recorded in Iceland until the 1700's) they must work their way into densely populated areas (the Southeast is probably the best bet) where they can become endemic.

Becoming endemic is the important thing: if smallpox kills 10,000 of a population of 15,000, the disease itself will die off and the grandchildren of the 5,000 survivors will be no more immune to the disease than their grandparents were when it returns.

If smallpox kills 250,000 of a population of 500,000, it will remain in the population, jumping from village to village and never becoming eradicated. It will infect children, but as their parents will have experienced the disease and thus become immune, they will be able to nurse their children and thus increase survival rates. The disease will no longer cause social trauma due to being unfamiliar, and while it will kill people it won't do so in such massive numbers that they can't be replaced demographically.

Once European settlement arrives, there will still be violence to contend with, as well as infection from diseases that did not make the jump via Vinland such as malaria, but there will be much less population loss, putting the tribes of the southeast in a better position to resist colonialism, or at least work with it in a way that gives them a better advantage.

Sorry if that's stupid, I'm new to this.

My first post was a question on Germany winning World War I. I haven't been back to post-1900 since

 

[smjb]

What if they brought over the plagues earlier, and by the time the Euros arrived, the Natives had bounced back, with some slight immunity?


Sorry if that's stupid, I'm new to this.

You have to keep the travel times involved in mind--it's long enough for diseases to burn out in such a small community as a ship's crew. Smallpox didn't even reach Iceland until the 1300s, I believe it was.

 

[Faeelin]

It's interesting that North America doesn't have that much to offer in terms of global trade. Lots of farmland nobody can use, tobacco which needs labor that can't be reached...

Vinland would be a poor place to be rich, but a good place to be poor. My guess is that by 1492 both writing (and maybe some form of Christianity) have diffused through the East Coast along with ironworking. Lots of population movements along the way, of course.

 

[eliphas8]

What's to stop England from seizing Vinland?

Population, by the time England started settling the America's Vinlanders would outnumber them by a lot and attempt to seize it would be difficult at best. You yourself have commented on how hard it is to send large numbers of people to the America's early on.

 

[Dave Howery]

about the only way Vinland could have gotten bigger (or survive at all) is if they get some settlement from the rest of Iceland/Scandinavia... Greenland wasn't big enough to do it. Assuming they could get that, I wonder if the Norse couldn't have settled the whole of Newfoundland island... because it is an island, and they could isolate it and defend it. Putting colonies on the mainland in the face of native resistance seems a bit much. That said, there would likely be trading posts set up (come to think of it, a recent Nat. Geographic article was about exactly that), and a lot of both trading and warring with the various native tribes seems likely...

 

[Flubber]

Vinland would be a poor place to be rich, but a good place to be poor.

That's an excellent summation of the situation.

The question now becomes how do we force more people across the Atlantic to Vinland? There's nothing to lure them there, no quick riches of whatever sort, so what's going to force them there?

 

[eliphas8]

That's an excellent summation of the situation.

The question now becomes how do we force more people across the Atlantic to Vinland? There's nothing to lure them there, no quick riches of whatever sort, so what's going to force them there?

Maybe all thats needed is the abundant room for fishing and growing, farming is difficult in that area but no more so than it is in Scandinavia. You could probably get more than a few Danes to leave just with the promise of owning their own farm without being anyone's serf. Norwegians may trickle in for the abundant fishing waters there. Its going to be a slow process but those two things alone would be a very big draw. If its possible to turn native Canadian grapes into wine then that's a legitimate cash crop right there that could draw in a lot of people from all over the place (and it would be a good reason for why Scandinavian kings would want to sponsor rapid settlement).

 

[JacktheCat]

The question now becomes how do we force more people across the Atlantic to Vinland? There's nothing to lure them there, no quick riches of whatever sort, so what's going to force them there?

With the first reason why people came to the New World struck, that leaves the other two.

Religion (example: Pilgrims and Quakers) and to Run Away from something or someone (example: Erik the Red and Russian Jews)

 

[ATL Czar]

What's to stop England from seizing Vinland?

It would be very difficult for an English attack on Vinland from sea to succeed. With a large Vinlandic military defending from land, disembarking would be next to impossible, let alone conquering Vinland.