How far could the Western Allies push into Europe in WWII

As a person with a strong hate of the USSR (historicaly wise I understand its gone and all) so its no surprise that when I read 1945 Red Inferno I loved it. But without a war between the WA and the USSR how much land could the WA take with a POD no early than December th 1941
 

King Thomas

Banned
And how well the Nazis do in Russia-it could be possible that a Western invasion coupled with atom bombs knocks out Nazi Germany with it's soldiers still strong in the East.Minus the atom bombs bit, something like that happened in WW1 in OTL.
 
Well, if Britain, France, Belgium and the Dutch had got their act together in 1940 (as in, they are slightly more intelligent, use their air force properly, and can properly utilise their advantages in numbers and firepower), they could have marched to Berlin without the USSR ever getting involved.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Well, if Britain, France, Belgium and the Dutch had got their act together in 1940 (as in, they are slightly more intelligent, use their air force properly, and can properly utilise their advantages in numbers and firepower), they could have marched to Berlin without the USSR ever getting involved.

The OP desginates a POD no earlier that December of 1941.
 
Depends how far east the politicos could draw the occupation lines. Ike isn't a general who'll throw away his mens' lives taking territory that would just be handed over to the Soviets anyway.
 

Typo

Banned
The Oder, best case scenario is no no Communist Germany and Czechoslovakia. Anything beyond that is pushing the traditional Russian sphere of influence.
 

Markus

Banned
As a person with a strong hate of the USSR (historicaly wise I understand its gone and all) so its no surprise that when I read 1945 Red Inferno I loved it. But without a war between the WA and the USSR how much land could the WA take with a POD no early than December th 1941

Why would the WA taking more terrain away from an enemy of the USSR lead to a war between the WA and the USSR? After all, the WA doing better would be helping the USSR, the same USSR that had screamed for a 2nd front for years.

The Kiat does have a point. There is no point for the WA in racing to Berlin if Berlin is a) in the Soviet zone and b) the Soviets are within striking distance too.

To answer the OP´s question. Take a look at my TL. The Japanese offensive to conquer South-East Asia fails in 1942, resulting in the defeat of Japan at the end of 1943, resulting in vast numbers of air-, naval- and ground forces reaching Europe in 1944. The course of events might be different from my TL but neither the US nor the UK would suffer from a shortage of troops. IOTL the offensive in Italy came to a standstill after troops were withdrawn to invade southern France and at the end of the year the US Army was getting short of infantrymen, the UK aready was when Normandy was invaded.

To give you an idea of the numbers were are talking about, the Burma front -a strategic backwater by any definition- tied down roughly a dozen british/indian divisions. The USMC had five to six infantry divisions, the Australians had at least that many, the US Army well over a dozen division in the SWAP as this chart shows. No idea how many army divisions were deployed in the central pacific but the total for the entire PTO/CBI is certainly well above 30 divisions. WA had ~50 division in the UK by the time of D-day.

edit: For a less dramatic POD closing the Falaise Gap right away and securing the approaches to Rotterdam would have major consequences like a successful Market-Garden and less logistical problems in the autumn of 1944. That would greatly speed up the WA´s advance into Germany.
 

The Sandman

Banned
Fight a smarter Italian campaign. Assuming that you don't make the brilliant decision to grind your way north along a mountainous peninsula despite your total naval and aerial superiority in the theater, you might be able to get to Austria and parts of Yugoslavia before the Soviets do. You also probably will get the Czech half of Czechoslovakia. Figure that in this scenario, modern-day Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and the Czech Republic are in the Western sphere. Yugoslavia is divided into at least two countries post-war; the Russian half stays unified as Serbia, while the Western half probably splinters into its OTL components.
 
Dale Cozort did a good TL that ended up with the Nazis last redoubt in western Ukraine. In summary, the Soviet Union and the Axis reached their breaking points at the same time, just when the western allies invade France in 1943. The Soviets go on to reconquering large swathes, but the Germans are still occupying Minsk when they lose Berlin.


Here's my take.
The Japanese suddenly decide they need to occupy Vladivostok, and the Murmansk campaign is managed better by the Germans. They don't defeat the Soviets (that would make the western allies' task more difficult) but they do better than OTL. They're still strained horribly by the effort and can't resist the Allied invasions when they come.
 

Eurofed

Banned
As others have pointed out, with a more aggressive Anglo-American strategy in 1944-45, and political determination not to give Stalin an inch more of Europe than what the Red Army conquered on its own, the Western Allies could have got all of Germany but East Prussia, Austria, Czechoslovakia, Slovenia, and Croatia in the Western camp.
 
The Oder, best case scenario is no no Communist Germany and Czechoslovakia. Anything beyond that is pushing the traditional Russian sphere of influence.

What, no DDR? Who'd make all my lovely Praktika cameras then?

Eh?

Eh?
 

Typo

Banned
Dale Cozort did a good TL that ended up with the Nazis last redoubt in western Ukraine. In summary, the Soviet Union and the Axis reached their breaking points at the same time, just when the western allies invade France in 1943. The Soviets go on to reconquering large swathes, but the Germans are still occupying Minsk when they lose Berlin.
One of the best TL's I've read actually
 
It all depends on where the Red Army ends up. If the Red Army has troops in a country, it will go Communist. If it does not, then it probably won't.

Some part of Germany will become part of the Soviet occupation zone. That zone will become Communist if the Western Allies and USSR fall out, and if the Western Allies allow their zone to begin economic reforms. It is not realistic to assume that the Soviets will not have an occupation zone.

Despite what we know will happen, it is important to remember that the victors in WWII did not anticipate the Cold War. Everyone's immediate concern was how to prevent Germany from starting a Third World War or conquering again in another 20-30 years. The leaders of Czechoslovakia made the fatal mistake in cozying up too far with the Soviets preicsely because they wanted to be close to the only major power on their border. If they had shown more foreight and backbone, they would have agreed to the Marshall Plan and possibly avoided the Communist coup that did turn their country into a Soviet satellite.

With that said, let's imagine some differences where the Allies just get some lucky breaks.

First, Operation: Torch is more ambitious. The plan includes landing troops in Tunisia. All of French Northwest Africa falls, and Hitler is unable to load troops into Tunisia. The additional troops and airlift available to the Germans means the diaster at Stalingrad is somewhat lessened.

The original US plan was to seize North Africa in 1942 and invade France in 1943. With a more successful Torch in 1942, this is now possible, but not inevitable. The British will footdrag. Will they convince the Americans that 1943 is not the time to invade? If so, will they convince them to invade Italy instead? This is debateable. Presumably, logistical issues preclude a serious invasion in 1943, and the Americans agree to take Sicily first, and then Italy.

Allies take Sicily in the spring. They invade Italy in the summer of 1943 around the time of the German summer offensive. If they perform better than IOTL, the Allied operation greatly succeeds, they take Rome, but are stopped in the mountains before reaching the Po River Valley. Simultaneously, the British seizet he Dodecanese and Rhodes. Crete falls in a subsequent operation.

As 1943 ends, the other minor Axis nations (Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria) attempt to make peace with the Allies. They are informed that the Soviet Union must agree first, but allow some discussion. Churchill argues for a Balkans campaign, but the Americans refuse. Contingency plans are drawn up for a diversion of troops to Greece if Bulgaria enters the war and allows for easy invasion. With western troops there, it means Romania could also defect.

Spring 1944 has an offensive in Italy that drives into the north. In June 1944, the Allies invade Normandy. Weeks later, they break out of the bridgehead and intiate a sweeping drive to the West that encircles a large number of Germans. In the north, British and Canadian forces capture Antwerp and the Schedl Estuary, greatly easing logistical restrictions. Allied Armies advance into northern Italy including the French First Army. With the collapse of the Germans in France, and the success in the Balkans, it is determined that the French First Army can enter southern France through Italy and assist in liberating the country.

Churchill insists that the other forces planned for southern France, including the American Seventh Army, be diverted to the Balkans where they would join up with Bulgarian and Romanian troops. Since the Red Army was near Romania, the entire Balkans would be join the anti-Hitler cause in one fell swoop. After much deliberating, the Americans agree.

American and some British troops land in northern Greece in early August 1944 and with Bulgarian help, quickly move inland. Soon after, Romania defects from the Axis and allows Soviet troops to move through their territory. Soviet and American troops meet just outside Transylvania. The Romanian armistice renounces claims to Bessarabia, but establishes the US, UK, and USSR as jointly occupying Romania. Since Bulgaria never declared war on the USSR, only the US and UK are occupying powers.

Soviet troops quickly move into Hungary with Romanian help. In Yugoslavia, Bulgarian and American troops advance in the south, while Tito's partisans and the Red Army seize Belgrade.

Back in western Europe, the improved supply lines allow the Allies to reach and cross the Rhine in September 1944. At this point, it is apparent that Germany has lost the war. German soldiers in the west just begin giving up, while in the East they continue to fight hard. British and American troops advance steadily into Germany.

Warsaw is still held by the Germans, but the Red Army is approaching. Furthermore, Warsaw is now within Allied bomber range. The Polish government in exile reveals its intention to launch a national uprising. Americans and British agree to provide airborne support, including supplies plus the arrival of Polish airborne troops. Stalin is less than enthusiastic, but after Soviet propaganda complaining about the lack of Polish Home Army involvement, his criticism of this plan irritates the Western Allies. The Warsaw Uprising of september 1944 is coordinated with the Western Allies which drop supplies and Polish paratroopers which seize the city in a coup de main. Hitler orders a counterattack, but American and British planes carpet bomb the German positions west of the city from airfields in northern Italy.

By end of October, American troops have reached Vienna and Prague, whiel Soviet troops occupy Budapest and continue to advance in Poland and Slovakia.

At this point, I'm not sure how to proceed as politics begin to take over. Clearly Bulgaria will not go Communist, but Hungary will. Tito will still take over Yugoslavia. It is possible that Romania may escape Communist domination. The Czechoslovakian government in exile will take control in that control as IOTL. Poland is a more tricky question, as Stalin really does not want an independent Poland.

The above really requires a lot of things to go right, and I don't think it's realistic. But it's still within the realm of plausibility.
 
A nice POD in my opinion is if Friedrich Paulus is killed before or during the Battle of Stalingrad. The how is up to you, it could be a lucky Artillery Shell or Sniper killing him while he is at the front. The bottom line is, his Successor has more balls and once Operation Uranus rolls around he gets the Sixth Army the hell out of dodge. Of course, Hitler sacks or kills him for evacuating Stalingrad without his consent. The damage has been done, since the Sixth Army is out of Stalingrad. Hitler in OTL was willing to come to the peace table with the Soviets after Stalingrad. In OTL Stalin wouldn't have any of it after his big victory at Stalingrad. With the Sixth Army intact, they two may come to a peace much like Brest-Litovsk. Although, it would definately be temporary. The Wehrmacht is divided between Units sent to pacify the newly conquered East, fight the Western Allies in Italy and to defend France.

Unsurprisingly, the Western Allies will be outraged at the Soviets, as Hitler will focus on defeating them and then finishing off the USSR. The Soviets then begin to rebuild in an attempt to defeat the Germans a few years later.

With much more of the Wehrmacht being placed in France, Normandy may not take place until sometime in 1945 or not at all. The US ends up deploying one Atomic Bomb on Japan and one on Germany. Or with the delaying of Normandy, the US decides focuses on Japan more and Operation Downfall takes place. Therefore, 2 Atomic Bombs will be dropped on Germany. Either way, what happens in Japan is mostly irrelevant.

Once the Soviets find out that the US is about to deliver the death blow, they will declare war on Germany and pounce on the Germans and try to get as much land as possible. Hitler will most likely be overthrown in a Coup by the Whermacht after huge chunks of a few German Cities magically disappear. The Germans would likely surrender and try to let the Western Allies occupy as much land as possible.

The Soviets will definately get at least their 1938 borders back, and will likely get their Pre-Barbarossa borders back. I doubt they will get anything else though, considering they bowed out in the middle of the war and left the US & UK alone to fight Germany. They will have no "Sphere of Influence" in Europe and all they may have for allies is a possible Communist China.

So, the end result is a "Free Europe" stretching from Britain to Romania and from Italy Poland. While the USSR is stuck in same position as it was in 1940.
 
Balkans...

I think Churchill wanted the second landing not in Northern Greece but much further up the Dalmatian coast in central Croatia.

The plan was to head north on to the Hungarian plain and thence to Vienna and forestall the Soviet advance from the east.

Churchill had pretty much given up on Romania and Bulgaria staying outside the Soviet sphere of influence but hoped to keep Yugoslavia, Hungary, Greece and possibly Czechosolvakia within the western camp.

The Americans weren't either so keen or so distrustful of Stalin at that time so the landing happened in the relative backwater of southern France.

There was a very real fear in British circles that the Russians might enter Greece and as we know there was a strong Communist presence on the ground.
 

Markus

Banned
The Americans weren't either so keen or so distrustful of Stalin at that time so the landing happened in the relative backwater of southern France.

Actually that operation was to coincide with the one in Normandy, making it an important part of a two pronged attack. It was delayed but it still opened several ports and intact railroad line for the Allies.

In oder to land on the Balkans one would have to come up with additional troops or at least advance fast in Italy.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
One thing that needs to be kept in mind is that if there had not been any sort of agreement for th post-war landscape Stalin would have been utterly convinced that the West was going to job him. Rather than more or less stop and put two FRONTS into position to assault Berlin, Stalin could have ordered the Red Army to spread out and grab more of Germany, Austria, maybe even into the Southern Balkans. The Heer had contracted its lines to defend Berlin and the Red Army would have been able to gallop through big chunks of territory.

The Allies, being less willing to spend lives for dirt, would very likely have wound up with less then was the case IOTL, with at least all of Austria falling behind the Curtain.

It is also likely that, in the East, the Soviets wind up with ALL of Korea.
 

Markus

Banned
The Allies, being less willing to spend lives for dirt, would very likely have wound up with less then was the case IOTL, with at least all of Austria falling behind the Curtain.

It is also likely that, in the East, the Soviets wind up with ALL of Korea.

Weren´t the Allies already in Austria by the time the Battle for Berlin was in the making. The Soviets would also need some time to redeploy forces before they can make a move. And if Stalin realizes what´s up rather early one wonders how? A swifter advance into Germany would be just that. An invasion of the Balkans would be obvious on the other hand but would Stalin have the time to react? Maybe if the WA advance from northern Italy, maybe not if they suddenly land a large force somewhere else.
 
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