How effectively could Korea do a Meiji ?

[democracy101]

The thing about those incursions is that they were fairly minor IIRC. While conquering Korea was not such a great idea objectively, it may have been possible IMO for some country to have a moment of stupidity and try to take it. Say that France does better in the war to take Indochina and gets a case of victory disease.

Yes, I know, but again, there was no particular reason for any of the Western Powers to attempt to send a significant amount of troops. Although Korea still continued to trade with China, Japan, and the Ryukyu Islands, none of the colonizers would have had an advantage, because their trading links with China were mostly concentrated in the south, near Canton, and Japan had already been opened up to the West around 1854. Korea was also mountainous, and infrastructure had not been developed either.

 

[LeX]

What if someone (like Britain) was afraid that Russia would exert too much influence in the region and thus tried to take Korea then, as a means of denial? Korea itself is full of mountains and has few roads, but its important cities were near water. This would make it possible for some stuck-up* invader to come and sack the urban areas, maybe burn down a palace or two, and then get worn out by defenders who just retreated into the hills. It would only take a year or so for this to occur, but it could tremendously impact the way Koreans see things. The hardcore conservative, anti-progress factions be be disgraced. If China doesn't can't intervene to help their vassal, Koreans will realize that China can no longer protect them, and that they will have to protect themselves.

*= oh, those Oriental natives will be easy to deal with! We need only send a division and they will be at our feet in no time!

 

[democracy101]

What if someone (like Britain) was afraid that Russia would exert too much influence in the region and thus tried to take Korea then, as a means of denial? Korea itself is full of mountains and has few roads, but its important cities were near water. This would make it possible for some stuck-up* invader to come and sack the urban areas, maybe burn down a palace or two, and then get worn out by defenders who just retreated into the hills. It would only take a year or so for this to occur, but it could tremendously impact the way Koreans see things. The hardcore conservative, anti-progress factions be be disgraced. If China doesn't can't intervene to help their vassal, Koreans will realize that China can no longer protect them, and that they will have to protect themselves.

*= oh, those Oriental natives will be easy to deal with! We need only send a division and they will be at our feet in no time!

Again, this was essentially what the French and Americans attempted to do IOTL, as they did send some troops in order to achieve their aims, and as Russia didn't intrude significantly into the peninsula until around 1896-8, as I stated earlier, I find it hard to imagine a drastically different scenario occurring. A more reasonable outcome would be a fragile balance between the colonial powers, but as the court would then be beset among several factions, I don't see how this would help either.

 

[LeX]

Then for simplicity's sake, maybe it would be best to simply have, say, the French be more aggressive and forceful in their incursions. To bolster French morale, let's have them have taken Indochina by the mid 60s. Like I said, Korea doesn't really have to be a good idea, the idea of colonizing it just has to have appeal. The French did take the trouble to attack it once IOTL after all, just not with enough troops. It should be feasible make a PoD that would allow for France to feel the need to use more force.

 

[Rush Tarquin]

Then for simplicity's sake, maybe it would be best to simply have, say, the French be more aggressive and forceful in their incursions. To bolster French morale, let's have them have taken Indochina by the mid 60s. Like I said, Korea doesn't really have to be a good idea, the idea of colonizing it just has to have appeal. The French did take the trouble to attack it once IOTL after all, just not with enough troops. It should be feasible make a PoD that would allow for France to feel the need to use more force.

Well the French were distracted by the intervention in Mexico. Resolve or remove that, and they might be more focused on the Pacific.

 

[Iori]

The French invaded in 1966, and the US invaded in 1971.

I do believe you mean 1866 and 1871.

 

[Sian]

interesting debate as i once wrote a short paper in the equivalent of High School (some 15 pages) on the industrious and economic development of Meiji Japan (more specificly between 1867-1912).

One thing to note is that the internal trade network in Japan doing the shogunate was horrendous, to the degree that it was considered "easier if not also cheaper to get goods from Europe to Nagasaki (only port in Japan where foreign traders was accepted) than it would be to get the same goods from Nakasaki and 50 miles within Japan"(1)

...

Doing the Tokugawa period there was several new castes developing or changing focus, most prominent in a discussion about how Meiji was a success would be the growing merchant caste in the cities and big farmers in the rural areas which would produce large amount of goods while having almost a serfdom relationship with the smaller peasants.

The Centralized rule (while laughably weak) was still existent and had been running for almost a millennium giving Meiji amble access to public servants either trained by Daimyo's or the Shogun, often following dutch 'how-to' books on bookkeeping or administation.

As for the build-up itself it was marred with corruption and nepotism, but at the same time the primary focus for all members was, beyond self enrichment, the continued growth and strength of the japanese nation, aiming at getting where a point where they didn't have to take any crap from the western world even if they tried to force the hand with military.

Furthermore, to the best of everyone's knowledge, the new rulers doing Meiji, had absolutely no plan about how they wanted to get to their goal, which led them to having the chance of cherry-picking different parts of their 'upgrades' from different areas of the west with no need to pay mind to the ideology behind.

(1)paraphased from Edwin O. Reischuer's book 'Japan, Tradition and Transformation' from 1990

 

[Tyr]

This still doesn't address the fact that the Russians didn't even originally have a "border" with Korea at all until 1858, during the Treaty of Aigun, and that only allowed direct contact with an insignificant area in the eastern reaches of the Tumen River. The entire process took a few centuries, as they had to first take over "Outer" Manchuria, which included what would become Vladivostok, before even attempting to set foot in other areas such as Harbin. Also, your situation doesn't take into consideration that other Western Powers, such as Britain, France, and the United States might be interested in Korea if Japan doesn't manage to implement widespread reforms as it did IOTL.

.

They would be interested. Russia however has a big advantage. It has the actual land border and its huge influence in Manchuria.
Russia tended not to play by quite the same rules as other nations (it did to an extent of course, but it was always quite the bad boy). It would be all too easy for Russia to launch a legally dubious invasion.

 

[mightfly]

If you want some earlier potential PODs:

1
The Westerners faction dominated the governments of Injo and Hyojong (r. 1649-59). Song Si-yol (1607-89) was Hyojong's tutor and held a high position. He wanted to help the Ming empire and tried to build up the military secretly. Kim Cha-jom found out and told the Manchus, resulting in their killing the hostage, General Im Kyong-op. Hyojong then executed Kim. In 1653 the Choson court indicated its change in loyalty by using the Gregorian calendar that the Qing court had adopted. A Dutch castaway named Weltevree had been helping the Koreans manufacture cannons since 1628. He was sent to communicate with 36 Dutch survivors of a shipwreck on Cheju Island in 1653. They were taken to Seoul, detained as curiosities, put under military command, and banished to the southwest. Eight of them escaped to Nagasaki in 1666, and two years later Hendrik Hamel wrote the first book about Korea known in Europe. In 1654 and 1658 Korean forces helped the Qing army fight the Russians.

(How about No banishment but given a settlement and allowed to teach starting a school)


2
The technique of transplanting rice seedlings enabled farmers to grow a winter crop of barley also. Irrigation became even more important, and in 1778 a comprehensive plan for maintaining irrigation works was implemented through the Office of Embankment Works that had been established in 1662. By the end of the 18th century there were about 6,000 reservoirs, and the double-cropping system greatly increased agricultural production. The furrow-seeding method in dry-field farming also reduced the labor needed for weeding. Thus these advanced techniques enabled a few farmers to prosper while others had to find other work. Farming became a capitalist endeavor, especially with commercial crops for export such as ginseng, tobacco, and cotton. Commerce developed and gradually became an acceptable profession for the yangban class as well as farming. Private trade with Japan and China developed at designated locations. Korea had about a thousand local markets that were open every fifth day.

In 1779 a group of young scholars formed the Society for the Study of Western Doctrine in southeast Seoul. Yi Sung-hun (1756-1801) accompanied his father to Beijing and was baptized by a Catholic priest before returning to Korea in 1784. He made converts among the Southerners. King Chongjo designated Christianity a heresy and prohibited it in 1785, and the next year he banned importing any book from Beijing. In 1790 a letter from Beijing informed Catholics in Korea that papal instructions forbade them from participating in Confucian mourning rituals. After Yun Chi-ch'ung buried his mother in a Catholic manner, in 1791 Chongjo sentenced him and Kwon Sang Yon to death for destroying their ancestral tablets. In 1795 Chou Wen-mu was the first Catholic priest to enter Korea, and by the end of the century there were about ten thousand believers in the country.

(Maybe if this group had brought more than just western religious philosophy.)

3
King Sunjo (r. 1800-34) was only ten years old when he became king of Korea, and dowager Queen Chongsun acted as regent. The Pyokp’a party used the Catholic issue to increase their influence. They argued that the tolerance during Chongjo’s reign was illegal, and they persecuted Catholics in 1801. Six leaders were arrested; they refused to recant under torture and were executed, including Yi Sung-hun and Chong Yag-yong’s older brother Yak-chong, who had led the laity. The first Korean Catholic priest Chou Wen-mu turned himself in to try to stop the persecution, and he was put to death. Hwang Sa-yong wrote a long message on silk to the French bishop in Beijing, asking for western nations to use a large fleet and many troops to force Korea to grant religious freedom, but he was caught and executed. This aroused more fears, and another three hundred became martyrs. Also in 1801 the massive slave registers were ordered burned, emancipating 66,067 government slaves. Local governments still retained slaves, and private slavery also persisted. In 1802 the dowager Queen Chongsun died, and King Sunjo’s tutor Ch’ae Che-gong opposed the persecution of Christians. Sunjo’s father-in-law Kim Cho-sun of the Andong Kim clan gained the political power and promoted many of his clansmen.


(I would like to see Queen Chongsun survive longer and listen to Chae Che-gong removing the book ban for western books imported through china.)

4
Since Kojong (r. 1864-1907) was only twelve years old when he became king, his father Yi Ha Ung was named Taewon’gun (Grand Prince) and governed as regent. His reforms aimed to create a strong monarchy. He appointed officials from all four colors (factions) based on merit, especially the Southerners and Northerners who had been neglected by the Andong Kim clan. The Taewon’gun was the first in the Yi dynasty to appoint anyone from the royal Wang family of Koryo, and he promoted able commoners. He converted the military cloth tax to a household tax that the yangban class also had to pay. To reform the collection of the grain taxes he sentenced corrupt officials to death or exile. However, a land surtax, a gate tax, and much labor were needed for the reconstruction of the Kyongbok palace that began in 1865 and took two years. Large contributions by the royal family and others were rewarded with official titles and entertainment. He also had debased coins minted that caused inflation and counterfeiting. Cho Tu-sun (1796-1870) led the team that revised the administrative code of the Choson dynasty in 1865.

Because of its isolation the Choson dynasty became known in Europe as the “hermit kingdom.” Giving information to foreigners was a capital crime, and travel abroad was forbidden. An English merchant ship was turned away in 1832, and a British warship spent a month in Korean waters in 1845. The next year three French warships left a letter for the court demanding that amends be made for the killing of the French priests. In 1854 two Russian warships killed some Koreans. The German merchant Ernest Oppert twice asked permission to trade in 1866. That year the American schooner Surprise was stranded, and the crew was helped by the local Koreans. In July the trading vessel General Sherman sailed up the Taedong River to P’yongyang; after they abducted three Koreans, a battle erupted in which twelve local people were killed. Then Korean soldiers and a mob burned the ship and killed all on board—three American officers, a Protestant interpreter, and the mostly Chinese crew. The Korean government rejected western demands for trade because of China’s unfortunate experiences in the Opium Wars and because of the concern that Catholicism would spread. Korea would not trade with Japan either.


(Best one here would be no restriction on travel aboard and this leads to korean connections to the kingdom of hawaii)

(Another possibility is the crew of the General sherman are forced to abandon the ship as it sinks in the river before the incident leading them to be forced to ask for korean aid)

5
A response from the United States to the loss of the General Sherman came in 1871 when their ambassador to Beijing, Frederick Low, and Admiral John Rodgers with five warships and 1,230 marines tried to force open ports for trade by attacking Kanghwa. At least 53 Koreans and three Americans were killed, but once again stubborn Korean defense drove the westerners away.

(Same shipwrecks force the Americans to ask for korean help. Also following the koreans manage to recover the sunken ships and try to study their design)

 

[democracy101]

Yeah that's the problem you need the Daewongun to break the Andong Kims but then once he got power he wasn't going to pull a Meiji. Maybe have the Daewongun die earlier and have Queen Min consolidate more power without the distraction of her father in-law trying to push her out? That might be workable but might be too late to do much good? Maybe if you put in just a slight Japan screw to keep them from kicking around the Chinese and Russians too badly?

If the PoD is too early, this only allows either the Andong Kim clan or another conservative faction to take over. If it is too late, then it's going to be extremely difficult for the monarchy to effectively maneuver the factions. As an example, the Gapsin Coup was initially successful because of officials actively pushing for industrialization, but the queen was forced to seek aid from China in order to push the reformers out. There might be a compromise PoD, but the queen would then be too young.

Then for simplicity's sake, maybe it would be best to simply have, say, the French be more aggressive and forceful in their incursions. To bolster French morale, let's have them have taken Indochina by the mid 60s. Like I said, Korea doesn't really have to be a good idea, the idea of colonizing it just has to have appeal. The French did take the trouble to attack it once IOTL after all, just not with enough troops. It should be feasible make a PoD that would allow for France to feel the need to use more force.

Well the French were distracted by the intervention in Mexico. Resolve or remove that, and they might be more focused on the Pacific.

The French intervened because Korea had tortured and/or executed several French missionaries, and they actually managed to smuggle out more than 250 volumes of court records (Uigwe), so the intervention was somewhat significant. In addition, the French were mostly defeated in Mexico by 1866, so if they had wanted to conduct a more thorough expedition, they probably would have done so later on. The fact that only a few were sent to Korea in 1866 suggests that the French were simply not interested in the peninsula, and that it was considered to be a relatively minor affair. Also, sending more troops to Korea might lead them to temporarily take the peninsula, but it would require a significant amount (probably around 10,000-50,000) due to terrain and stiff Korean resistance, when they could be used elsewhere.

I do believe you mean 1866 and 1871.

Fixed.

-snip-

The issues might be similar, but Korea had to deal with several factions favoring China, Japan, or Russia, not to mention that the government generally remained strictly isolationist, which is unlikely to change. In fact, the Opium Wars only convinced Joseon that it should tighten restrictions so that it would not be "run over" by foreigners.

They would be interested. Russia however has a big advantage. It has the actual land border and its huge influence in Manchuria.
Russia tended not to play by quite the same rules as other nations (it did to an extent of course, but it was always quite the bad boy). It would be all too easy for Russia to launch a legally dubious invasion.

It took the Russians about two centuries to consolidate its holdings near the Pacific, and it wasn't until 1858 that they were able to expand into Outer Manchuria, which was only possible after the Qing had suffered crushing defeats during the Opium Wars. Russia was also concerned with other internal and external affairs, such as political reforms and factions, along with military conflicts in Europe, so I don't think that attempting to actively expand into Manchuria and/or Korea would really be its main issue at the time.

How about No banishment but given a settlement and allowed to teach starting a school

I'm not sure how this would occur, not to mention how reforms could be widely implemented.

Maybe if this group had brought more than just western religious philosophy.

I think you're aiming for records concerning agriculture, but the problem is that bringing too much over would attract suspicion from the Korean government. Korea had implemented a significant amount of reforms concerning agriculture by 1700, but without infrastructure to complement these changes, the effects would be limited at best.

I would like to see Queen Chongsun survive longer and listen to Chae Che-gong removing the book ban for western books imported through china.

Not entirely impossible, but the majority of the factions would be fiercely against foreign influence, so I find it hard to see how this could be butterflied away.

Best one here would be no restriction on travel aboard and this leads to korean connections to the kingdom of hawaii

Another possibility is the crew of the General sherman are forced to abandon the ship as it sinks in the river before the incident leading them to be forced to ask for korean aid

As stated before, there is no particular reason for the colonial powers to actively intervene in Korea, nor the Korean government to open up under Heungseon Daewongun.

Same shipwrecks force the Americans to ask for korean help. Also following the koreans manage to recover the sunken ships and try to study their design.

Plausible, but studying a few ships aren't going to lead to widespread changes, not to mention the near impossibility of dredging them without significant damage. The Koreans would probably regard them as curiosities, but their interest would most likely be limited as a whole.

 

[Sian]

The issues might be similar, but Korea had to deal with several factions favoring China, Japan, or Russia, not to mention that the government generally remained strictly isolationist, which is unlikely to change. In fact, the Opium Wars only convinced Joseon that it should tighten restrictions so that it would not be "run over" by foreigners.

Not saying anything about similarity between their positions, but merely pointing out why the Meiji-restoration was such a success.

Furthermore ... i doubt that it would have been such a success if it was moved some 50 years back or forwards into the future ... to early and it doesn't have the european industrial revolution to pull on, to late and the international scene wouldn't accept the blatant corruption, nepotism and effectively a dictatorship with a Junta on top

 

[mightfly]

It took the Russians about two centuries to consolidate its holdings near the Pacific, and it wasn't until 1858 that they were able to expand into Outer Manchuria, which was only possible after the Qing had suffered crushing defeats during the Opium Wars. Russia was also concerned with other internal and external affairs, such as political reforms and factions, along with military conflicts in Europe, so I don't think that attempting to actively expand into Manchuria and/or Korea would really be its main issue at the time.



I'm not sure how this would occur, not to mention how reforms could be widely implemented.



I think you're aiming for records concerning agriculture, but the problem is that bringing too much over would attract suspicion from the Korean government. Korea had implemented a significant amount of reforms concerning agriculture by 1700, but without infrastructure to complement these changes, the effects would be limited at best.



Not entirely impossible, but the majority of the factions would be fiercely against foreign influence, so I find it hard to see how this could be butterflied away.



As stated before, there is no particular reason for the colonial powers to actively intervene in Korea, nor the Korean government to open up under Heungseon Daewongun.



Plausible, but studying a few ships aren't going to lead to widespread changes, not to mention the near impossibility of dredging them without significant damage. The Koreans would probably regard them as curiosities, but their interest would most likely be limited as a whole.

My goal is to create a POD around 1790 to 1810 which seems to be the best period to develop a modern industrialization movement in Korea. But it seems that it will take multiple positive POD to have the neccessary influence to result in a Meiji like environment earlier than 1890.

(1) I was hoping that a shift in mindset might bring a sympathic Hyojong to allow the dutch castaways to settle rather than be banished and assist some in returning to the west giving Korea a more positive viewing in the West. The dutch castaways build a school and write books to educate their children with korean wives.(creating a small westernized enclave early)

(2) I was hoping this group could have brought some of western medicine's ideas to help with later plagues but this seems unlikely. I think if we could decrease the impact of the conflict between confucianism and christianity we could see a major shift in Korea hermitism.

Maybe we could get the royalty to encourage protestantism over catholicism after learning of it to contest the Catholic churches papal codes against attending Confucian mourning?

(3) With one of the earlier PODs also happening this is easier and her support for limited openning could bring in contact with other international communities trying to resist western colonial domination beside japan? The kingdom of hawaii came to mind first.

More knowledge could start the building of the infrastructure korea needed by 1810. Sunjo would have heeded the Queen dowager longer and this would have slowed the assencion of the Andong Kims who would have opposed her policies. Or the would acqiuece to the policies to gain power still.

(4) The ship General sherman was lost in korea after a conflict with koreans following their kidnapping of three koreans. The ship was burned and all on board were killed. The goal here is to sink the ship before the kidnapping leaving americans stranded in korea to ask for korean help and a ship for the koreans to recover early.

(5) this was to establish friendlier ties to a western state(US) in exchange for aid to leave the country or to cause a large western population force to become trapped in korea and force koreans to deal with a then modern occupying military force which will leave behind technology for the koreans to study.

If the US ask for aid in rescuing this hostile force and getting them to nagasaki the korean government can ask for a heavy payment for these "hostages". If the Koreans decide to hold the Marines hostage they could get military knowledge and western technology similar to their dutch experience that would help to defend the country later from Chinese, Japanese, and Russian domination.

If the American marines take hold of a large area and do not ask for help the koreans could ask for qing help removing them and together following the defeat of the americans take their then modern arms and study them aiding both Joseon and Qing in the arming against the West. If the Koreans learn western shipbuilding they might be able to project power as far as hawaii which would be interested in a non western state that defeated a western power.

 

[democracy101]

Not saying anything about similarity between their positions, but merely pointing out why the Meiji-restoration was such a success.

Furthermore ... i doubt that it would have been such a success if it was moved some 50 years back or forwards into the future ... to early and it doesn't have the european industrial revolution to pull on, to late and the international scene wouldn't accept the blatant corruption, nepotism and effectively a dictatorship with a Junta on top

I see. I certainly acknowledge that a specific set of conditions gave the Japanese a higher probability of effectively putting the pieces together.

My goal is to create a POD around 1790 to 1810 which seems to be the best period to develop a modern industrialization movement in Korea. But it seems that it will take multiple positive POD to have the neccessary influence to result in a Meiji like environment earlier than 1890.

The problem is that any PoDs before 1850 won't pressure Korea into industrializing, because there is no particular reason for the government to implement widespread reforms, especially under the "protection" of the Qing dynasty. However, a significant change after that date won't help either, because the government's policies are too deep-rooted, and by the time that anyone attempts to enact reforms by around 1875-85, it will probably be too late.

(1) I was hoping that a shift in mindset might bring a sympathic Hyojong to allow the dutch castaways to settle rather than be banished and assist some in returning to the west giving Korea a more positive viewing in the West. The dutch castaways build a school and write books to educate their children with korean wives.(creating a small westernized enclave early)

The furthest extent of Dutch influence would probably be similar to the situation in Dejima, Japan. The Japanese decided to limit trade with the Dutch to the island, and although they managed to obtain some bits and pieces of useful information, none of them led to major reforms. I don't see how the situation would be any different in Korea. In fact, given how Korea was invaded by 13 different states throughout its history, officials would be extremely reluctant to adopt ideas from any Westerners.

(2) I was hoping this group could have brought some of western medicine's ideas to help with later plagues but this seems unlikely. I think if we could decrease the impact of the conflict between confucianism and christianity we could see a major shift in Korea hermitism.

Maybe we could get the royalty to encourage protestantism over catholicism after learning of it to contest the Catholic churches papal codes against attending Confucian mourning?

The majority of Westerners (Dutch, Portuguese, Spanish) that the Koreans had contacts with were Catholics. As a result, unless they ended up contacting a significant amount of people from the HRE or England, which would be extremely unlikely, Protestants would probably remain relatively unknown on the peninsula.

(3) With one of the earlier PODs also happening this is easier and her support for limited openning could bring in contact with other international communities trying to resist western colonial domination beside japan? The kingdom of hawaii came to mind first.

More knowledge could start the building of the infrastructure korea needed by 1810. Sunjo would have heeded the Queen dowager longer and this would have slowed the assencion of the Andong Kims who would have opposed her policies. Or the would acqiuece to the policies to gain power still.

Again, there is no reason for Joseon to open up before 1850, and while contacts with other states, such as Hawaii, might help, that particular scenario wouldn't really accomplish anything. Koreans emigrated to Hawaii as workers, and the state was annexed by the United States because of its strategic location in the Pacific, which probably would have occurred even with a PoD around 1850. Instead, radical changes must be implemented within the government, which would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, with a PoD long before 1500. In other words, you would have to thoroughly understand the underlying causes and issues before attempting to tackle a coherent scenario.

(4) The ship General sherman was lost in korea after a conflict with koreans following their kidnapping of three koreans. The ship was burned and all on board were killed. The goal here is to sink the ship before the kidnapping leaving americans stranded in korea to ask for korean help and a ship for the koreans to recover early.

The Americans will probably just be repatriated back through intervening states, not to mention that some would most likely be tortured and/or killed because of the "invasion."

(5) this was to establish friendlier ties to a western state(US) in exchange for aid to leave the country or to cause a large western population force to become trapped in korea and force koreans to deal with a then modern occupying military force which will leave behind technology for the koreans to study.

If the US ask for aid in rescuing this hostile force and getting them to nagasaki the korean government can ask for a heavy payment for these "hostages". If the Koreans decide to hold the Marines hostage they could get military knowledge and western technology similar to their dutch experience that would help to defend the country later from Chinese, Japanese, and Russian domination.

If the American marines take hold of a large area and do not ask for help the koreans could ask for qing help removing them and together following the defeat of the americans take their then modern arms and study them aiding both Joseon and Qing in the arming against the West. If the Koreans learn western shipbuilding they might be able to project power as far as hawaii which would be interested in a non western state that defeated a western power.

Again, there is no particular reason for any Europeans to be interested in Korea, so you would have to come up with a concrete reason in order to construct a set of events.

 

[mightfly]

I see. I certainly acknowledge that a specific set of conditions gave the Japanese a higher probability of effectively putting the pieces together.



The problem is that any PoDs before 1850 won't pressure Korea into industrializing, because there is no particular reason for the government to implement widespread reforms, especially under the "protection" of the Qing dynasty. However, a significant change after that date won't help either, because the government's policies are too deep-rooted, and by the time that anyone attempts to enact reforms by around 1875-85, it will probably be too late.



The furthest extent of Dutch influence would probably be similar to the situation in Dejima, Japan. The Japanese decided to limit trade with the Dutch to the island, and although they managed to obtain some bits and pieces of useful information, none of them led to major reforms. I don't see how the situation would be any different in Korea. In fact, given how Korea was invaded by 13 different states throughout its history, officials would be extremely reluctant to adopt ideas from any Westerners.



The majority of Westerners (Dutch, Portuguese, Spanish) that the Koreans had contacts with were Catholics. As a result, unless they ended up contacting a significant amount of people from the HRE or England, which would be extremely unlikely, Protestants would probably remain relatively unknown on the peninsula.



Again, there is no reason for Joseon to open up before 1850, and while contacts with other states, such as Hawaii, might help, that particular scenario wouldn't really accomplish anything. Koreans emigrated to Hawaii as workers, and the state was annexed by the United States because of its strategic location in the Pacific, which probably would have occurred even with a PoD around 1850. Instead, radical changes must be implemented within the government, which would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, with a PoD long before 1500. In other words, you would have to thoroughly understand the underlying causes and issues before attempting to tackle a coherent scenario.



The Americans will probably just be repatriated back through intervening states, not to mention that some would most likely be tortured and/or killed because of the "invasion."



Again, there is no particular reason for any Europeans to be interested in Korea, so you would have to come up with a concrete reason in order to construct a set of events.

At this point I'm not too sure what you mean by uninterested europeans when i am using PODs from actual events in the OTL and just chaning the results slightly to have greater impact?

The major change is the experience with westerners being slightly less hostile leading to slightly less reaction.

The Dutch castaways are given more sympathy and having stayed in korea for so long start their own community with korean wives that is slightly westernized. The dutch who leave give korea a more favorable image when writing about it.

The dutch enclave gives many koreans the opportunity to see how westerners live and the dutch build some tools and infrastructure for themselves others could adopt as some korean children learn in the dutch school. This has a small impact but introduces the ideas of western technology beyond just agriculture.

The dutch enclave could bring about the entering of more western ideas and their implementation while medical knowlege was my goal i would except other technologies.

The hope of protestant introduction could come from the later american expeditions but if they are seen as hostile its unlikely.

Its true some koreans did reach hawaii but it was so few and they so rarely returned that they had no chance of making an impact on korea. Also they were not making contact with businessmen and officials as they weren't businessmen or officials and therefore were not making deals.

I am trying to making a slow acceptance of western ideas before 1850 and to change up political rhetoric slowly towards the west with more than one POD. So after 1850 there can be a rapid modernization movement the may not catch Meiji Japan but would keep Korea free long enough to get to a Meiji era before 1900.

I am using a soft change strategy then a big shift.

 

[democracy101]

At this point I'm not too sure what you mean by uninterested europeans when i am using PODs from actual events in the OTL and just chaning the results slightly to have greater impact?

The major change is the experience with westerners being slightly less hostile leading to slightly less reaction.

I fully understand the scenarios you're trying to present, but you're still not taking the context of the policies into consideration. Although Joseon certainly had trading contacts with its neighbors, it was extremely reluctant to open up to Europeans, especially regarding their ideas. Confucianism, which emphasized tradition, remained firmly rooted within the dynasty since its foundation in 1392, and Korea had to repel numerous invasions from 13 states throughout its history. As a result, I find it hard to imagine a court that would be willing to listen to different viewpoints from Westerners, especially when their numbers during each encounter will generally remain low.

In other words, you would need more than slight changes in order to create any impact to begin with. You seem to automatically assume that the transition from Step A to B will be carried out, and that this will lead to further changes, but you're still not explaining how this process will occur. This is why I'm saying that you have to look much further in order to grasp the whole picture, which will happen only if you thoroughly review Joseon's policies from 1392 to 1910, instead of solely focusing on the historical events that seem promising. However, the earlier the PoD, the more numerous the butterflies, and it will become extremely difficult to keep track of all of them.

The Dutch castaways are given more sympathy and having stayed in korea for so long start their own community with korean wives that is slightly westernized. The dutch who leave give korea a more favorable image when writing about it.

The dutch enclave gives many koreans the opportunity to see how westerners live and the dutch build some tools and infrastructure for themselves others could adopt as some korean children learn in the dutch school. This has a small impact but introduces the ideas of western technology beyond just agriculture.

The dutch enclave could bring about the entering of more western ideas and their implementation while medical knowlege was my goal i would except other technologies.

In line with the above, you're still not explaining exactly why and/or how the Korean government would be willing to allow the Dutch to establish their own "community," and learn from the "Southern Barbarians," leading to more significant changes in the long run. The vast majority of foreigners who were stranded in the peninsula tended to either assimilate into the local population, or become part of the Baekjeong, which was the lowest social class. As a result, I find it hard to imagine how the stranded men are going to convince the court that they will be "useful," especially considering how Dutch and/or Korean translators were non-existent at the time.

Again, as a comparison, the Japanese still maintained contacts with the Dutch during the Sakoku policy, and obtained medical information that they found somewhat useful, but did not lead to widespread changes within society as a whole, and Japan generally shunned contacts with the West until the mid-1800s.

The hope of protestant introduction could come from the later american expeditions but if they are seen as hostile its unlikely.

A military intervention by any state wouldn't help, and any European state would not be willing to send tens of thousands of troops when there would be no material gain.

Its true some koreans did reach hawaii but it was so few and they so rarely returned that they had no chance of making an impact on korea. Also they were not making contact with businessmen and officials as they weren't businessmen or officials and therefore were not making deals.

My point was that even if Koreans managed to contact the Hawaiians in a systematic manner, American incursions into the latter would effectively nullify any gains. Hawaii is also located relatively far away from any state in general, so I don't think Korea would view any possible contacts as "promising."

I am trying to making a slow acceptance of western ideas before 1850 and to change up political rhetoric slowly towards the west with more than one POD. So after 1850 there can be a rapid modernization movement the may not catch Meiji Japan but would keep Korea free long enough to get to a Meiji era before 1900.

I am using a soft change strategy then a big shift.

To sum up, you need to understand the whole picture before attempting to tackle any PoDs, and be much more specific when presenting your scenarios.