How effectively could Korea do a Meiji ?

[Woolly Mammoth]

My question is if Korea initiated comprehensive reforms and modernised their economy, armed forces ect around the middle 1800s onwards with some European assistance and without Japan or China intervering or preventing changes taking place how effective could the reforms be ?

IOTL in 1897 they declared an Empire and did partial reforms but they were never completed and Korea was annexed by Japan, however for the sake of the discussion lets say Japan never breaks out of isolation or Meijis itself so wont intervene.

Does Korea have the potential to become powerful ? I realise with smaller population they are unlikely to have the same influence as Japan but am curious as to how strong they could become.

 

[tonsofun]

Without Japan, Korea does stand a chance, but there is a chance another country (Russia for example) could get involved and occupy Korea before it fully modernizes. Some will benefit from a modern Korea and other won't.

 

[Iori]

Not very well.

The thing people really understand is Japan did'nt just magically pull industry out of its female populations bosoms, Japan had been industrializing slowly for a century before the Meiji Restoration and it was the existence of those large amounts of small industry and handful of big industry already established that allowed Japan to go through the perceived hyper-industrialization, which was in fact simply speeding-up and providing more resources to an already existing process.

On the political side things were different to, Korea did not have the same political system as Japan, indeed it's like asking if some specific political even that happened to the Roman Empire could happen to the Persian Empire, the two were very different politically.
Incidentally the Roman Empire is probably the closest comparison to Shogunate Era Japan of any country in history, both were essentially military dictatorships that evolved into political systems over time separate from, but highly influential in their respective militaries.

Another thing to take into account as well is population, at the time of the Meiji Restoration Japan had about 30 million people and was a very urbanized country even for the time where-as Korea's population was around 12 million* at the time and was less Urbanized.



*Korea's population before the 20th century saw very large population changes in both directions and thus an exact number is difficult if not possible to find, however 12 million is an averaged estimate based on the highs and lows before and after 1868.

 

[democracy101]

This has already been discussed several times before, most recently here and here. I don't want to repeat my points again, and the posts are quite long for me to repost all of the relevant ones here, but I will say that it was due to a combination of various internal and external factors. In other words, it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to untangle most, if not all, of them without a PoD significantly far back, specifically around 1000-1600.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Personally, I think they CAN. Their main problem is not so much internal weakness as being the battleground first between China and Japan, and between Japan and Russia after Shimonoseki. The first of course is what allowed Korea to formally declare independence, as an empire, but being left as the battleground, sometimes literally, between Japan and Russia was not good for it.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[democracy101]

Personally, I think they CAN. Their main problem is not so much internal weakness as being the battleground first between China and Japan, and between Japan and Russia after Shimonoseki. The first of course is what allowed Korea to formally declare independence, as an empire, but being left as the battleground, sometimes literally, between Japan and Russia was not good for it.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

This was one of the main issues I previously focused on, and Korea's attempts to balance China, Japan, and Russia ultimately failed after Japan managed to defeat the others.

 

[Daztur]

Anything is possible but it'd be hard, significantly harder than what Japan did for various reasons. On the other hand once it got going, there's a decent amount of coal and iron ore in the North...

Another thing to remember is why the Korean Empire was declared, it was because Japan pushed Korea into it to formally break vassalage ties between China and Korea. It wasn't a sign of modernization so much as a big step towards becoming a Japanese colony.

 

[Rush Tarquin]

Anything is possible but it'd be hard, significantly harder than what Japan did for various reasons. On the other hand once it got going, there's a decent amount of coal and iron ore in the North...

Another thing to remember is why the Korean Empire was declared, it was because Japan pushed Korea into it to formally break vassalage ties between China and Korea. It wasn't a sign of modernization so much as a big step towards becoming a Japanese colony.

I'd like to see a TL with a Korean Empire as an ally/puppet (but not a colony) of Imperial Russia with a late POD. Later, but earlier than OTL, it gets to assert its independence and industrialise.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

So reading through this thread, it seems to me that Korea could at least partially pull a Meiji if given enough time. So it seems to me that Korea needs a protector that would keep it simi-independent but not annex it outright. So what about Korea being a protectorate of either Britain or France? I know for a fact France sent an expedition to Korea in the 1860s so maybe during that time France establishes a protectorate. Or maybe Korea asks Britain for help after the Russo-Japanese War, and Britain, worried about he growing Japanese power, accepts. Or something along those lines.

 

[Whanztastic]

So reading through this thread, it seems to me that Korea could at least partially pull a Meiji if given enough time. So it seems to me that Korea needs a protector that would keep it simi-independent but not annex it outright. So what about Korea being a protectorate of either Britain or France? I know for a fact France sent an expedition to Korea in the 1860s so maybe during that time France establishes a protectorate. Or maybe Korea asks Britain for help after the Russo-Japanese War, and Britain, worried about he growing Japanese power, accepts. Or something along those lines.

Or the US...

 

[Tyr]

Its hard because it has the big land border with Russia.
Japan's modernisation was largely a result of lots of competing foreign interests all largely cancelling each other out on a national level.
In Korea....the Russian influence is always going to loom large. British and French business is unlikely to want to get too involved in there as they know if Korea begins to head under the sway of their nations Russia might well make up an excuse to invade.

As Iori says too Japan had a lot of advantages. It didn't just one day decide to modernise whilst all the other eastern nations were too stupid to think that would be a good idea. Japan was a very sophisticated and urbanised country prior to Meiji. One of the major foundations of the industrial revolution in Britain was the 17th and 18th century developments of modern banking, stock markets, etc....- Japan had equivalents.

Meiji was largely a political revolution. Not an economic one.

 

[Arafeel]

Japan was unique. And even with the benefits that Japan have its not a give that they would have industrialisation. It was just very likely. Now this all depends on when your pod is sett. No if we look at Japan, and turn away from the romantic narrative of Meiji, the country actually started on its path in the 17 century. They did not just wake up one morning and decided too get some industries. (Just look at states that tried that).

The economy of contemporary Tokugawa Japan, had a high degree of centralization, an integrated market, and a advanced transport network. The Japanese merchant did not have to cope with internal toll barriers. Two-way trade between town and country was an established fact of Japanese life already in the seventeenth century. Technological progress, helped by a high level of literacy, was a feature of Tokugawa agriculture which had a firmly established rate of growth long before the Meiji restoration. And, in so far as relevant, the Japanese elite in the seventeenth century held an active curiosity about western science and technology, now all these do not add up to a possibility of spontaneous industrialization.But the society and economy of pre-Meiji Japan gave her a great potentiality to respond to the opportunity. And its is very likely they would do so.

And this is what makes Japan unique, and something comparable that needs to be doe to "pull a Meiji". And even with these advantages, Japan was still only semi-industrialise when WW2 started.

 

[democracy101]

I'd like to see a TL with a Korean Empire as an ally/puppet (but not a colony) of Imperial Russia with a late POD. Later, but earlier than OTL, it gets to assert its independence and industrialise.

So reading through this thread, it seems to me that Korea could at least partially pull a Meiji if given enough time. So it seems to me that Korea needs a protector that would keep it simi-independent but not annex it outright. So what about Korea being a protectorate of either Britain or France? I know for a fact France sent an expedition to Korea in the 1860s so maybe during that time France establishes a protectorate. Or maybe Korea asks Britain for help after the Russo-Japanese War, and Britain, worried about he growing Japanese power, accepts. Or something along those lines.

The problem is that neither the Andong Kim clan, nor the Heungseon Daewongun, was willing to accept foreign influence, and they only did so grudgingly after the Ganghwa Treaty in 1876, as there was no other alternative. In other words, the issues were embedded within the government itself, and although the system of checks and balances worked relatively well internally, it became inefficient when attempting to balance foreign influences.

Its hard because it has the big land border with Russia.

I hope you're not being serious here. The land (?) border with Russia was (and still is) literally miniscule, and it was insignificant when compared to the border with China.

Russia did expand its sphere of influence into Manchuria, but it never managed to consolidate political control in the region, and by the time that it obtained trading concessions near the Korean border in 1898, Japan already had a stable presence in the peninsula, so they balanced each other out.

Japan's modernisation was largely a result of lots of competing foreign interests all largely cancelling each other out on a national level.
In Korea....the Russian influence is always going to loom large. British and French business is unlikely to want to get too involved in there as they know if Korea begins to head under the sway of their nations Russia might well make up an excuse to invade.

I'm not sure what this means. Generally speaking, Japanese, Chinese, and Russian interests were relatively equal during the duration of the time period, although other countries, such as the United States, had minor presences as well. Russia's influence did not even come close to dwarfing the others until 1896, when Gojong decided to temporarily move his residence to the Russian legislation, and that was due to Myeongseong's brutal assassination by the Japanese. If anything, Japanese influence remained relatively consistent from 1876 to 1910, and was further consolidated after the Sino-Japanese War (1895) and the Russo-Japanese War (1905).

As Iori says too Japan had a lot of advantages. It didn't just one day decide to modernise whilst all the other eastern nations were too stupid to think that would be a good idea. Japan was a very sophisticated and urbanised country prior to Meiji. One of the major foundations of the industrial revolution in Britain was the 17th and 18th century developments of modern banking, stock markets, etc....- Japan had equivalents.

Meiji was largely a political revolution. Not an economic one.

Japan was unique. And even with the benefits that Japan have its not a give that they would have industrialisation. It was just very likely. Now this all depends on when your pod is sett. No if we look at Japan, and turn away from the romantic narrative of Meiji, the country actually started on its path in the 17 century. They did not just wake up one morning and decided too get some industries. (Just look at states that tried that).

The economy of contemporary Tokugawa Japan, had a high degree of centralization, an integrated market, and a advanced transport network. The Japanese merchant did not have to cope with internal toll barriers. Two-way trade between town and country was an established fact of Japanese life already in the seventeenth century. Technological progress, helped by a high level of literacy, was a feature of Tokugawa agriculture which had a firmly established rate of growth long before the Meiji restoration. And, in so far as relevant, the Japanese elite in the seventeenth century held an active curiosity about western science and technology, now all these do not add up to a possibility of spontaneous industrialization.But the society and economy of pre-Meiji Japan gave her a great potentiality to respond to the opportunity. And its is very likely they would do so.

And this is what makes Japan unique, and something comparable that needs to be doe to "pull a Meiji". And even with these advantages, Japan was still only semi-industrialise when WW2 started.

The main problems within Korea were a lack of infrastructure, along with a fluctuating, but generally low population. Hanseong (Seoul) was far the largest city within the peninsula, although it was nowhere close to a large city by world standards at the time. The Mongol and Japanese Invasions also drastically stunted the growth of the population, and caused the inhabitants to rebuild everything from scratch after the invaders finally retreated. Widespread introduction of cash crops from around 1550-1700 helped somewhat, but a lack of sufficient infrastructure meant that widespread reforms were not effectively implemented, and that the population levels remained low.

 

[Tyr]

I hope you're not being serious here. The land (?) border with Russia was (and still is) literally miniscule, and it was insignificant when compared to the border with China.

Russia did expand its sphere of influence into Manchuria, but it never managed to consolidate political control in the region, and by the time that it obtained trading concessions near the Korean border in 1898, Japan already had a stable presence in the peninsula, so they balanced each other out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyr
Japan's modernisation was largely a result of lots of competing foreign interests all largely cancelling each other out on a national level.
In Korea....the Russian influence is always going to loom large. British and French business is unlikely to want to get too involved in there as they know if Korea begins to head under the sway of their nations Russia might well make up an excuse to invade.
I'm not sure what this means. Generally speaking, Japanese, Chinese, and Russian interests were relatively equal during the duration of the time period, although other countries, such as the United States, had minor presences as well. Russia's influence did not even come close to dwarfing the others until 1896, when Gojong decided to temporarily move his residence to the Russian legislation, and that was due to Myeongseong's brutal assassination by the Japanese. If anything, Japanese influence remained relatively consistent from 1876 to 1910, and was further consolidated after the Sino-Japanese War (1895) and the Russo-Japanese War (1905).

I was thinking more the start of the Meiji period than early 20th century. And instead of Japan rather than in addition.

 

[Daztur]

Well what you could do is have either the Sino-Japanese War or the Russo-Japanese War shake out differently. It was Japan winning both of those that made it taking over Korea pretty much inevitable. If China and/or Russia are in stronger positions it makes keeping Korea around as a buffer state kind of like Thailand for the French and British a good possibility, which the Korean government at the time would've loved. Queen Min was angling for that sort of neutrality and was a pretty smart operator and supportive of modernization and she would've pulled it off if given a chance, but Japan winning those wars was too much for her.

An earlier butterfly would be to have someone besides Gojong chosen as king after the previous one died childless. His dad was a smart guy but his isolationism made it very hard for Korea to start to modernize until too late. Gojong's choice is very easily butterfliable.

 

[democracy101]

I was thinking more the start of the Meiji period than early 20th century. And instead of Japan rather than in addition.

This still doesn't address the fact that the Russians didn't even originally have a "border" with Korea at all until 1858, during the Treaty of Aigun, and that only allowed direct contact with an insignificant area in the eastern reaches of the Tumen River. The entire process took a few centuries, as they had to first take over "Outer" Manchuria, which included what would become Vladivostok, before even attempting to set foot in other areas such as Harbin. Also, your situation doesn't take into consideration that other Western Powers, such as Britain, France, and the United States might be interested in Korea if Japan doesn't manage to implement widespread reforms as it did IOTL.

Well what you could do is have either the Sino-Japanese War or the Russo-Japanese War shake out differently. It was Japan winning both of those that made it taking over Korea pretty much inevitable. If China and/or Russia are in stronger positions it makes keeping Korea around as a buffer state kind of like Thailand for the French and British a good possibility, which the Korean government at the time would've loved. Queen Min was angling for that sort of neutrality and was a pretty smart operator and supportive of modernization and she would've pulled it off if given a chance, but Japan winning those wars was too much for her.

An earlier butterfly would be to have someone besides Gojong chosen as king after the previous one died childless. His dad was a smart guy but his isolationism made it very hard for Korea to start to modernize until too late. Gojong's choice is very easily butterfliable.

Again, the problem is that there is literally no other alternative to Heungseon Daewongun, who ruled as regent, and not Gojong, who was his son. Any other "ruler" would have been subordinate to the Andong Kim clan, which was also fiercely isolationist, and it took a lot of covert effort for the power to be finally restored to the monarchy. When the Andong Kim clan took over, the monarchy was in disarray, and most members of the royal family were forced to flee or to go into hiding. As a result, I honestly don't think that another prince would have been able to successfully confront the "dictatorship" at the time, as they would be worried about other pressing issues.

 

[LeX]

Were there any major foreign incursions into Korean territory in the 1800s, besides the 1895 war? Perhaps you could have a colonial war between Korea and some western power (not sure which one) sometime between 19830 and 1860, which goes really badly for the Koreans initially but then ends when it turns out that the invaders do not have the resources for a long-term occupation/pacification campaign. Korean society has been completely shaken up by this war, and modernist factions gain increasing influence. Perhaps you could have some victorious rebel leader become boss and incidentally also realize that industrialization is the way to go.

 

[democracy101]

Were there any major foreign incursions into Korean territory in the 1800s, besides the 1895 war? Perhaps you could have a colonial war between Korea and some western power (not sure which one) sometime between 19830 and 1860, which goes really badly for the Koreans initially but then ends when it turns out that the invaders do not have the resources for a long-term occupation/pacification campaign. Korean society has been completely shaken up by this war, and modernist factions gain increasing influence. Perhaps you could have some victorious rebel leader become boss and incidentally also realize that industrialization is the way to go.

The French invaded in 1866, and the US invaded in 1871. Neither was able to force Korea to open its borders due to stiff resistance, and at the time, as Korea was of little geographic value, not to mention no immediately viable resources, none of the Western Powers focused on actively heading into Korea.

 

[LeX]

The thing about those incursions is that they were fairly minor IIRC. While conquering Korea was not such a great idea objectively, it may have been possible IMO for some country to have a moment of stupidity and try to take it. Say that France does better in the war to take Indochina and gets a case of victory disease.

 

[Daztur]

Again, the problem is that there is literally no other alternative to Heungseon Daewongun, who ruled as regent, and not Gojong, who was his son. Any other "ruler" would have been subordinate to the Andong Kim clan, which was also fiercely isolationist, and it took a lot of covert effort for the power to be finally restored to the monarchy. When the Andong Kim clan took over, the monarchy was in disarray, and most members of the royal family were forced to flee or to go into hiding. As a result, I honestly don't think that another prince would have been able to successfully confront the "dictatorship" at the time, as they would be worried about other pressing issues.

Yeah that's the problem you need the Daewongun to break the Andong Kims but then once he got power he wasn't going to pull a Meiji. Maybe have the Daewongun die earlier and have Queen Min consolidate more power without the distraction of her father in-law trying to push her out? That might be workable but might be too late to do much good? Maybe if you put in just a slight Japan screw to keep them from kicking around the Chinese and Russians too badly?