How easy would it be for Germany to capture Moscow in 1941?

Stalin sent back-channel feelers out in 1941 and unsuccessful peace talks were reported in 1942 & 1943. Japan reportedly acted as moderator at least once. Ultimately the most Stalin was reportedly ready to give before a serious negotiation was before Moscow with only a little less on the table until after Stalingrad.



 

Deleted member 1487

Only they can't do that because they don't have the supplies to do it. Plus you think they take less casualties going on the offensive and further weakening their supply lines than taking defensive positions allowing their supply to catch up (as well as further infantry support) and repelling soviet counter attacks? That's not how it really works.
You're basing that on? They had supplies to fight a massive defensive positional fight east of Smolensk and launch flank offensives by 3rd and 2nd Panzer Groups, plus their air support. Only 1 corps of 3rd Panzer ended up on AG-North's supply lines in late August, the rest were supported via AG-Center's rail lines. If they had the supplies to continuously fight through August and September, why not on the offensive, which was vastly less costly than positional fighting, both in supplies and lives (well, their troops' lives). Compare the situation in October when in two weeks AG-Center suffered about 50k casualties and inflicted over 1 million casualties on the Soviet forces defending Moscow, leaving only 90k defending the routes to the city, but in August-September they only inflicted about 350k while defending and suffered about 100k losses.
Maneuver is where Germany has the advantage over the Soviets, it is in positional fighting that things even out and the Soviet cumbersome command and control system could effectively bring it's numbers and artillery to bear on their own timetable.

where did Zhukov's reserves come from in dec41?
Largely they were new forces built up over a couple of months:

And I think they and you are making the same mistake about Moscow as well
You're entitled to your opinion.

have you got a cite for that, because there are records showing them actually agreeing that while it would be bad (obviously) it wouldn't be the end of (their) world
Posted already.

Stalin didn't stay because if he left the USSR would have crumbled, he stayed to make point that he was staying and to improve morale in the city
Distinction without a difference. He stayed because if he didn't the city would likely fall and if the city fell his regime was in a bad position to survive. If Stalin's regime fell there is not some other one waiting in the wings to take over.

also there's plenty relevant about 1812, it a big reason why the Germans went with three prongs not one. But supply and slow going was still factors in both. I think the reason why you don't like the comparison is that for your theory to work Moscow falls instantly and Russia then automatically collapses straight after, only 1812 shows Moscow can fall but actually Russia can withstand that.
Source? They went for three prongs because Hitler wanted to take three objectives at once.
I don't like the comparison, because in 1812 Moscow as not the capital of the country, the USSR was not the Czardom, the railroad, motor vehicle, and airplane, not to mention radio and telephones didn't exist. The economy of the USSR was vastly different from that of 1812 Russia as was that of Nazi Germany and France. Plus the French only had the strength to advance over a very narrow path, while the 1941 advance was over a wide swath of land from the Baltic sea to Black sea.

You think if we compared the war of 1812 in the Americas to 1941 that a rerun of the US invasion of Canada might be a bit different too?

Frankly this is basically the same mistake the nazi's made i.e. the rotten edifice. Only as was shown time and time again that the USSR in WW2 was far more than just Moscow and were way more resilient than they thought. Time and time again the Germans thought one more offensive the soviets would collapse, but it never happened. What did happen was that each new offensive cost the Germany men, materials and logistics that it couldn't ultimately sustain
Ugh, no. I'm not arguing that it would take one swift kick at the border and the USSR would implode. I'm not even arguing that taking Moscow would end the war, but start the unraveling process that would defeat the USSR in 1942. Those are very different things and if you can't tell the difference you're just playing a shitty internet argument game.
You're also ignoring that IOTL the USSR was pushed to the brink of collapse in 1942 as it was and that was with retaining Moscow.

Only even if Moscow falls it won't happen that quickly and that doesn't stop the USSR from being able to mobilise. Also Soviet losses were high in 1944 not because they were an ill trained horde (a WW2 myth) but because they were on the offensive and the Germans were still a well trained force for most of the time and able to defend well over along distance and make them pay a high price.
Actually the loss of Moscow would badly disrupt mobilization due to the loss of electrical production for remaining factories and the loss of specific industries within Moscow that would cripple arms production. Kind of hard to have a tank accurately shoot without optics for instance.

In 1944 the German army in the east was not well trained, it was a badly degraded force sapped of reserves, fuel, supplies, air support, armor, etc. During Bagration they were grossly outnumbered and relied on fixed fortifications, which played perfectly into the Soviet methods of artillery preparation. Yet despite that and a lot of guerrilla support in the rear areas of the German supply apparatus, the Soviets still suffered higher losses than the Germans despite it being a worse defeat than Stalingrad for them. Oh and their best divisions with the best equipment were deployed in Normandy. So what gives? How can the B-team of the German army without air support in 1944 have hurt a vastly more powerful enemy worse even during their biggest defeat in the East to date?

In reverse despite being outnumbered and outgunned by the Soviets in 1941 Germany inflicted 10:1 casualties while on the offensive. In fact their casualty infliction ratios went up the deeper they got into the USSR. Operation Typhoon was more costly to the Soviets than the frontier battles, while for the Germans the October fighting was the least costly month to date.

it was not fresh as of October as they had been fighting an offensive for four months and their logistical supply had major issues as Barbarossa was launched with only 3 month logistics supply in hand, plus of course being panzer divisions they had routinely moved forward out of what supply they had.
Yet they inflicted the worst defeat on the USSR to date in October. In 2 weeks they killed, captured, or wounded 1 million Soviet troops defending Moscow, leaving only 90k troops blocking their path on the Mozhiask defense line. They only suffered 50k casualties in return. The only thing that stopped them at that point was the weather, which collapsed their supply network when trucks literally could no longer move on the few roads that existed. Even the main highway to Moscow collapsed due to the mud and heavy traffic. As soon as the ground hardened from the frost they were able to attack again, but in the meantime the Soviets had managed to form or bring in sufficient reserves to hold the city. German supply wasn't a problem then and wouldn't be until the January frost that screwed up the western European trains that were not set up to handle the cold.

Because of the mud. I'm proposing Moscow falls in mid-October when the forces that took Kalinin IOTL instead head east to the unprepared defenses around Volokolamsk and blow through them. The 16th army at that time was the equivalent of a weak infantry corps without reserves behind it; the stronger 5th army with it's more prepared defensive positions barely held on IOTL when attacked by a different force, so they wouldn't be in a position to send aid; in fact IOTL it was 16th army that sent some of it's forces to aid 5th army at Mozhiask. Had 16th army also been engaged 5th army would have been even more hard pressed to resist ITTL.

Also Warsaw was a heavily fortified city with an entire field army defending it, Moscow was not.

(that last bit is massively important Moscow wasn't going to suddenly roll over just because some Panzers appear in the streets. And while you can take ground with tanks you can only hold it with Infantry. Moscow in 1940 is big, it has population of approx 6m yes some will flee, and yes they might even clog a road or two. But in OTL volunteer forces were already being pulled from the general populous, many of whom were already reservists. Fortification had already begun.
Moscow itself couldn't fight back, Soviet troops were needed to do so, Panzers showing up on the streets in the midst of a city wide panic are going to be taking the city as they had all the other major cities they overran to that point. Civilians weren't stopping the Axis forces anywhere.
The combat capable population was committed outside the city, there weren't the weapons and manpower left as of mid-October to actually fight. Scattered, disorganized resistance isn't going to stop anything.

Yes, in fact most of the newly forced forces for the December counterattack came through Moscow, were armed by factories in the city, and used the infrastructure to move around. Without that the December forces wouldn't be formed, been able to move about, or be in a position to attack in any coordinated fashion.
The Siberian thing is a myth, I posted a debunking of that above, but I'll add it here again:

Did you even check the cite for the claim you're posting?
"This estimate proved wrong, as Stalin transferred over 18 divisions, 1,700 tanks, and over 1,500 aircraft from Siberia and the Far East.[81]"
Goldman p. 177
  • Goldman, Stuart D. (2012). Nomonhan, 1939; The Red Army's Victory That Shaped World War II. Naval Institute Press. ISBN 978-1-61251-098-9.
I don't know what a book about Nomonhan in 1939 has to do with the fight around Moscow in 1941 and is directly contradicted by sources that directly relate to the battle itself.
 

Deleted member 1487

right so that's Zhukov changing his story (could have happened), but still at most evidence that Stalin was making overtures for peace.

There are conflicting rumours about Stalin suing for peace and hoping for Brest -litovsk style agreement,. but AFAICT there is nothing substantial on this (there could be several reasons for this of course).
You're reaching now. Zhukov was actually there and there as multiple sources attesting to Stalin's panicked efforts to try and make peace, including by the NKVD officer who was tasked with meeting with the Bulgarian ambassador to pass peace offers from Stalin:
I have the memoir cited and it wasn't just the July effort, there was an October one. Hitler refused, which killed the effort in 1941.

Also you reference July and Oct (presumably 1941) and then again 1942 in the paragraph above. well Moscow isn't under threat of falling in July 1941 or in 1942 so neither would seem to even coincide with your assertion that Moscow falling was seen as the death knell and thus teh trigger for such overtures?

also the paragraphs makes the counter point anyway, Hitler wasn't going to accept a negotiated peace, and even if some overtures were made that was pretty clear. And's that is one of the reasons why teh soviets kept fighting, they weren't given much alternatives. If it's fight and die or surrender and die, you might as well fight.
Stalin tried to make peace multiple times and was offering more in October than he was in July when the defeats weren't as threatening yet. In 1942 Stalin was also convinced defeat was around the corner so tried to cut a deal again. There was apparently a 1943 effort too, but that was likely more to pressure the Wallies to open a 2nd front by convincing them if they didn't he'd cut a deal than any serious attempt.

Stalin considered several times that the defeats he was facing were worth making peace over, but Hitler thought he could win it all and blew them off. Not sure why that is such a hard thing to grasp. Stalin understood how bad the situation was and if not for operational and strategic mistakes Hitler might well have won. The overtures were just an example of how seriously Stalin considered losses he was facing.

The problem with the idea of the Soviets fighting on due to lack of choice is the lack of ability to do so if they experienced the loss of their capital and all the vital things in it.
 

TDM

Kicked
A) No Yugoslavia campaign - Barbarossa starts in early May instead of late June and Germany likely takes Moscow in November or early December.
...

Just very quickly on this there's a bit of a myth on this. They can't actually go that much earlier as in May the ground is still likely to be pretty wet from the spring thaws. You can maybe be go a couple of weeks earlier and start earlier in June to avoid the mud but that's about it. Either way you still have the problem that Germany is doing this with a 3 month logistical supply and is forced to pause more and more once they get through that. So more time doesn't necessarily help them.
 

CalBear

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Could German logistics support such a concentrated push? Certainly I think the initial push would still need to be 3-pronged for that reason, as well as Germany not having a hope if they can't destroy most of the Red Army in the initial engagements.

Maybe when the logistics lines start to stretch, they could concentrate their logistical effort on AGC and push for Moscow. Can they support more units in AGC if they do so? Certainly, if they can I bet it's not by much.

Interesting to consider how such a feat could be managed...

fasquardon
The Heer would have less trouble supporting a single thrust a couple hundred kilometers across compared to three divergent thrusts along widely divergent axes. IOTL the Heer wound up with a front that was well ove 1,000 across ( the distance from Kiev to Leningrad) with planned ending points, two of which extended more than 1,000 kilometers from the jumping off points. A less ambitious narrower front would allow the limited motor transport available to concentrate on supplying one Army Group, would allow rapid rotation of the lead formations to reduce mechanical breakdowns, and permit the Luftwaffe to concentrate its resources in support.

To be clear, this sort of strategy would result in defeat, probably somewhat earlier than IOTL, but it would allow for the OP's goal, namely take Moscow. There was no requirement to HOLD Moscow (my guess would be a potential capture by October 1st, with eviction by February of 1942 ending with the wholesale destruction of Army Group Center).

The reality is that Hitler flatly ignored reality, instead relying on the fantasy that the the entire USSR was teetering on the verge of collapse "needing only a single good kick" ending in a an easy victory all wrapped up before the first snows. It was, without wholesale changes in the year between the Fall of France and Barbarossa, a Fool's Errand, one that was bound to fail, the only question being how long it took to collapse under the weight of its own ambition.
 

TDM

Kicked
You're basing that on? They had supplies to fight a massive defensive positional fight east of Smolensk and launch flank offensives by 3rd and 2nd Panzer Groups, plus their air support. Only 1 corps of 3rd Panzer ended up on AG-North's supply lines in late August, the rest were supported via AG-Center's rail lines. If they had the supplies to continuously fight through August and September, why not on the offensive, which was vastly less costly than positional fighting, both in supplies and lives (well, their troops' lives). Compare the situation in October when in two weeks AG-Center suffered about 50k casualties and inflicted over 1 million casualties on the Soviet forces defending Moscow, leaving only 90k defending the routes to the city, but in August-September they only inflicted about 350k while defending and suffered about 100k losses.
Maneuver is where Germany has the advantage over the Soviets, it is in positional fighting that things even out and the Soviet cumbersome command and control system could effectively bring it's numbers and artillery to bear on their own timetable.


Largely they were new forces built up over a couple of months:


You're entitled to your opinion.


Posted already.


Distinction without a difference. He stayed because if he didn't the city would likely fall and if the city fell his regime was in a bad position to survive. If Stalin's regime fell there is not some other one waiting in the wings to take over.


Source? They went for three prongs because Hitler wanted to take three objectives at once.
I don't like the comparison, because in 1812 Moscow as not the capital of the country, the USSR was not the Czardom, the railroad, motor vehicle, and airplane, not to mention radio and telephones didn't exist. The economy of the USSR was vastly different from that of 1812 Russia as was that of Nazi Germany and France. Plus the French only had the strength to advance over a very narrow path, while the 1941 advance was over a wide swath of land from the Baltic sea to Black sea.

You think if we compared the war of 1812 in the Americas to 1941 that a rerun of the US invasion of Canada might be a bit different too?


Ugh, no. I'm not arguing that it would take one swift kick at the border and the USSR would implode. I'm not even arguing that taking Moscow would end the war, but start the unraveling process that would defeat the USSR in 1942. Those are very different things and if you can't tell the difference you're just playing a shitty internet argument game.
You're also ignoring that IOTL the USSR was pushed to the brink of collapse in 1942 as it was and that was with retaining Moscow.


Actually the loss of Moscow would badly disrupt mobilization due to the loss of electrical production for remaining factories and the loss of specific industries within Moscow that would cripple arms production. Kind of hard to have a tank accurately shoot without optics for instance.

In 1944 the German army in the east was not well trained, it was a badly degraded force sapped of reserves, fuel, supplies, air support, armor, etc. During Bagration they were grossly outnumbered and relied on fixed fortifications, which played perfectly into the Soviet methods of artillery preparation. Yet despite that and a lot of guerrilla support in the rear areas of the German supply apparatus, the Soviets still suffered higher losses than the Germans despite it being a worse defeat than Stalingrad for them. Oh and their best divisions with the best equipment were deployed in Normandy. So what gives? How can the B-team of the German army without air support in 1944 have hurt a vastly more powerful enemy worse even during their biggest defeat in the East to date?

In reverse despite being outnumbered and outgunned by the Soviets in 1941 Germany inflicted 10:1 casualties while on the offensive. In fact their casualty infliction ratios went up the deeper they got into the USSR. Operation Typhoon was more costly to the Soviets than the frontier battles, while for the Germans the October fighting was the least costly month to date.


Yet they inflicted the worst defeat on the USSR to date in October. In 2 weeks they killed, captured, or wounded 1 million Soviet troops defending Moscow, leaving only 90k troops blocking their path on the Mozhiask defense line. They only suffered 50k casualties in return. The only thing that stopped them at that point was the weather, which collapsed their supply network when trucks literally could no longer move on the few roads that existed. Even the main highway to Moscow collapsed due to the mud and heavy traffic. As soon as the ground hardened from the frost they were able to attack again, but in the meantime the Soviets had managed to form or bring in sufficient reserves to hold the city. German supply wasn't a problem then and wouldn't be until the January frost that screwed up the western European trains that were not set up to handle the cold.


Because of the mud. I'm proposing Moscow falls in mid-October when the forces that took Kalinin IOTL instead head east to the unprepared defenses around Volokolamsk and blow through them. The 16th army at that time was the equivalent of a weak infantry corps without reserves behind it; the stronger 5th army with it's more prepared defensive positions barely held on IOTL when attacked by a different force, so they wouldn't be in a position to send aid; in fact IOTL it was 16th army that sent some of it's forces to aid 5th army at Mozhiask. Had 16th army also been engaged 5th army would have been even more hard pressed to resist ITTL.

Also Warsaw was a heavily fortified city with an entire field army defending it, Moscow was not.


Moscow itself couldn't fight back, Soviet troops were needed to do so, Panzers showing up on the streets in the midst of a city wide panic are going to be taking the city as they had all the other major cities they overran to that point. Civilians weren't stopping the Axis forces anywhere.
The combat capable population was committed outside the city, there weren't the weapons and manpower left as of mid-October to actually fight. Scattered, disorganized resistance isn't going to stop anything.


Yes, in fact most of the newly forced forces for the December counterattack came through Moscow, were armed by factories in the city, and used the infrastructure to move around. Without that the December forces wouldn't be formed, been able to move about, or be in a position to attack in any coordinated fashion.
The Siberian thing is a myth, I posted a debunking of that above, but I'll add it here again:

Did you even check the cite for the claim you're posting?
"This estimate proved wrong, as Stalin transferred over 18 divisions, 1,700 tanks, and over 1,500 aircraft from Siberia and the Far East.[81]"
Goldman p. 177
  • Goldman, Stuart D. (2012). Nomonhan, 1939; The Red Army's Victory That Shaped World War II. Naval Institute Press. ISBN 978-1-61251-098-9.
I don't know what a book about Nomonhan in 1939 has to do with the fight around Moscow in 1941 and is directly contradicted by sources that directly relate to the battle itself.

You know what I was going to go point by point, but the fact you claiming:

" why not on the offensive, which was vastly less costly than positional fighting, both in supplies and lives"

really shows you just going to ignore reality to stick to your point, offensive operations are way more costly in resources and lives than defensive ones.

and no supply was always a problem no just when the weather turned in Oct/Nov (although that made a bad situation worse) the German logistics corp had already said they could supply for three month, and the response was OK we win in three months then. Plus of of course the Panzer divisions had out run their dwindling supplies and support as per usual, and being the tip of the spear had also taken the brunt of the German causalities and material losses even if they were racking up impressive numbers of the enemy.

So it not can the tip of the spear panzers get to Moscow, yes they can, just can they get to Moscow while still in supply, with enough infantry support and still in good enough shape to take a city of 6m people, a target way larger than any of the cities they had taken when they enjoyed a better situation earlier in the campaign.
 

Deleted member 1487

The Heer would have less trouble supporting a single thrust a couple hundred kilometers across compared to three divergent thrusts along widely divergent axes. IOTL the Heer wound up with a front that was well ove 1,000 across ( the distance from Kiev to Leningrad) with planned ending points, two of which extended more than 1,000 kilometers from the jumping off points. A less ambitious narrower front would allow the limited motor transport available to concentrate on supplying one Army Group, would allow rapid rotation of the lead formations to reduce mechanical breakdowns, and permit the Luftwaffe to concentrate its resources in support.
Got to disagree. The limit was the availability of rail lines and trying to cream everything on the few lines leading to Moscow was not sustainable. As it was the number of rail lines for each army group was inadequate to fully sustain them and they lucked out that Soviet units were getting progressively weaker as the pre-war army was wiped out and all that was left was 3rd rate equipment and untrained reservists.
 

TDM

Kicked
You're reaching now. Zhukov was actually there and there as multiple sources attesting to Stalin's panicked efforts to try and make peace, including by the NKVD officer who was tasked with meeting with the Bulgarian ambassador to pass peace offers from Stalin:
I have the memoir cited and it wasn't just the July effort, there was an October one. Hitler refused, which killed the effort in 1941.


Stalin tried to make peace multiple times and was offering more in October than he was in July when the defeats weren't as threatening yet. In 1942 Stalin was also convinced defeat was around the corner so tried to cut a deal again. There was apparently a 1943 effort too, but that was likely more to pressure the Wallies to open a 2nd front by convincing them if they didn't he'd cut a deal than any serious attempt.

Stalin considered several times that the defeats he was facing were worth making peace over, but Hitler thought he could win it all and blew them off. Not sure why that is such a hard thing to grasp. Stalin understood how bad the situation was and if not for operational and strategic mistakes Hitler might well have won. The overtures were just an example of how seriously Stalin considered losses he was facing.

The problem with the idea of the Soviets fighting on due to lack of choice is the lack of ability to do so if they experienced the loss of their capital and all the vital things in it.

But none of that supports your assertion that if Moscow falls the USSR would then automatically fall. the very fact there that this was repeated thing at time when Moscow wasn't threatened demonstrates that it not intrinsically tied to the threat on Moscow.
 

Deleted member 1487

You know what I was going to go point by point, but the fact you claiming:

" why not on the offensive, which was vastly less costly than positional fighting, both in supplies and lives"

really shows you just going to ignore reality to stick to your point, offensive operations are way more costly in resources and lives than defensive ones.
Counterpoint: 1941-42 for Germany vs. 1943-45. Same with the defensive fighting in August-September vs. October. The numbers are very clear that when Germany was attacking in 1941 they suffered much less than when they were defending, but when they tried to assume a defensive posture and fight a positional battle the Soviets could bring their firepower to bear and made them pay badly. The fighting around Yelnya in August-September is the prime example of this:
The Soviets even got the casualty ratios down to 1.5:1 which was unheard of in 1941.
 

TDM

Kicked
Got to disagree. The limit was the availability of rail lines and trying to cream everything on the few lines leading to Moscow was not sustainable. As it was the number of rail lines for each army group was inadequate to fully sustain them and they lucked out that Soviet units were getting progressively weaker as the pre-war army was wiped out and all that was left was 3rd rate equipment and untrained reservists.

The rail lines were limited, but they were not the only limiting factor for logistics. the German supply plan was never just cram everything in the few available lines. Because:

A). they knew the state of the lines
B). they new the Russians would do what they can to disrupt them
C).doing so ties you to the rail line
 
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TDM

Kicked
Counterpoint: 1941-42 for Germany vs. 1943-45.

Counter point what, the red army in 1943-4 is not the same army in 1941 is it? And even then they still took heavy casualties when fighting the retreating Germans 1943-45?

Same with the defensive fighting in August-September vs. October. The numbers are very clear that when Germany was attacking in 1941 they suffered much less than when they were defending, but when they tried to assume a defensive posture and fight a positional battle the Soviets could bring their firepower to bear and made them pay badly. The fighting around Yelnya in August-September is the prime example of this:
The Soviets even got the casualty ratios down to 1.5:1 which was unheard of in 1941.

so you found one example of a good day for Soviets counter offensive in 1941 I wouldn't mind but a couple of posts ago you were talking about hundreds of thousands of soviets being thrown away in wasteful counter attacks easily beaten back by the Germans outside Moscow for little losses! Shall I find an example of a soviet counter offensive against German position that is less flattering? I think I'll be able to find one in 1941! ;)


You also relying a bit of Barbarossa myth of if the Germans stop moving then overwhelming numbers of Soviets will be brought to bear to zerg rush them, when in fact closer to equal numbers were more often the case when in actual contact. (yes the Soviets enjoyed larger numbers overall but generally speaking it was shown in strength in depth of resources and being able to replace losses). Obviously once the German basically run out of men and units are permanently under strength despite retreating back up their resupply lines the Russians more easily achieve numerical superiority at point of contact


take that Yelanna offensive as an example there was no overwhelming forces being brought to bare, from your link its approximately 70k vs 100k (making it a very good day for Zhukov)


I mean yes you are right Blistzkrig does rely in avoiding teh bulk of teh enemy, but it's still a really costly way to fight because you are constantly fighting and pushing forward. Look at the earlier cites for how reduced the Panzer formations were, same thing happens in France as well.

either way you one example is irrelevant if you think that generally speaking offensives are less resource intensive than defense
 
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CalBear

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Got to disagree. The limit was the availability of rail lines and trying to cream everything on the few lines leading to Moscow was not sustainable. As it was the number of rail lines for each army group was inadequate to fully sustain them and they lucked out that Soviet units were getting progressively weaker as the pre-war army was wiped out and all that was left was 3rd rate equipment and untrained reservists.
I'm not really invested enough in this to put more of defense for the idea. I maintain it has a vastly better chance of achieving its limited goal, than having to supply three army groups thundering across an area the size of Western Europe using horse drawn wagons has of achieving the same end result, but YMMV.
 
In 1944 the German army in the east was not well trained, it was a badly degraded force sapped of reserves, fuel, supplies, air support, armor, etc.
How did they manage to stay cohesive and fight the USSR until May 1945 then?
I'm proposing Moscow falls in mid-October when the forces that took Kalinin IOTL instead head east
How many troops and vehicles total were sent to Kalinin that could have plausibly been sent to take Moscow?
 
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Geon

Donor
Just in the realm of "what I would do..."

First the Germans should have established defensive lines and waited out the late fall and winter rather then trying to press on as they did. Let's say Adolph has some clear lucid moments and takes the time to actually send winter uniforms, coats, boots, etc. to the front.

Second, forget the southern offensive. Don't worry about taking the oil fields until after you have Moscow. Take Moscow and you have control of a if not the major rail center in the country. The Germans should have been readying for an all-out spring offensive to take the city.

Third, start the offensive as soon as the ground is no longer a quagmire.

Now, the big fly in the ointment. Urban warfare. The more I read the more I am convinced most armies want to avoid urban warfare like the proverbial plague. But the Russians are going to force the issue and fight house by house, building by building for every inch of Moscow. And I suspect they will do the same thing they did back in 1812 when Napoleon came calling and if necessary torch as much of the city as possible as they retreat. The Germans may win the Battle of Moscow, but, like Napoleon it will be a pyrrhic victory at best. They will be exhausted with little in the way of shelter and winter coming on soon. They would likely retreat either during the winter of '42 or the spring of '43 making Napoleon's retreat from Moscow look like a cake walk!
 

TDM

Kicked
....

In reverse despite being outnumbered and outgunned by the Soviets in 1941 Germany inflicted 10:1 casualties while on the offensive. In fact their casualty infliction ratios went up the deeper they got into the USSR. Operation Typhoon was more costly to the Soviets than the frontier battles, while for the Germans the October fighting was the least costly month to date.
....

OK I will just quickly address this. the problem here is you are citing this as if this was the result of the German army and Russian army having a series of head to head fights where this was the outcome just because the Germans attacked in abstract.

But it's not the case, the reason why the such high ratios were achieved was because of the large encirclement's that the German were able to achieve against the Russians in 1941. as well as the initial loses as the Russian basically took a long time to recover from their institutional and strategic surprise and unpreparedness

don't get me wrong this is still an important and impressive achievement. However as 1941 goes on the German's are less and less able to do this at will for several reasons,

1). The rate of panzer front units slows because the panzer units are increasingly being reduced in combat effectiveness and mobility due to losses and lack of supplies aka you can't encircle anyone if your tank has broken done and it's harder to punch through stuff when you are at 33% effective strength

2). The Soviet formations stopped either standing there taken by operational surprise or charging in just in time to be encircled. (although when they do it tends to happen again see the initial Soviet counter attacks in Nov in Moscow.


Another key kind of true in abstract but not in reality thing you say. In terms of more men and guns in Russia in 1941 yeah the Soviets outnumbered and out gunned the Germans (although not actually by that much) , but because the Germans were on the offensive they could concentrate their forces in order to achieve local superiority or to bypass larger soviet formations cutting them off and allowing the trailing infantry divisions to mop them up instead of running head on into them.


But you say yes TDM that's why German units have to stay on the offensive, and yes again in abstract you are right. But again you can't do that if if you have logistics and supply issues that slow you down and if you high value spear heads are being being depleted at a rate you can't replace. (The German loses in 1941 were concentrated in those panzer formations). Of if generally speaking your opposition stops handily standing around in easily encircled lumps of hundreds of thousands of men.

Basically if the the German could some how contrive their entire time in Russia to be exactly like Jun-Aug 1941 then yes, but they can't, so no.


a couple of points,

1) after Sep/Oct 41 at no point were the Germans ever again able to amass enough logistics to have all three army groups move forward at the same time for any period of time. Even in later offensives it was a smaller combination of formations where some one pinched from someone else. And eventually they had to spend more and more time not moving in order to concentrate supplies to allow any group to move

2). even in June - Dec 1941 basically the German happy time in Russia the German losses were large:

1024px-World-War-II-military-deaths-in-Europe-by-theater-year.png


look at the 1941 axis losses block. Yes the axis lost more in all later years but remember 1941 is only half a year and 1941 is the year of great wining!
 
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Deleted member 1487

How did they manage to stay cohesive and fight the USSR until May 1945 then?
Replacements and the Soviets being worn down too. With a few exceptions all the Soviet offensive victories up to January 1945 were more expensive to them than the Germans. They also had less motor transport than the Germans and were advancing into areas that were converted to European gauge, so Soviet logistics was quite hamstrung. Later on after Bagration the Germans finally brought in panzer divisions from other fronts and were able to attack the Soviets when they got ahead of themselves and inflicted significant defeats still, which while only operationally significant, still made the Soviets more cautious than they necessarily needed to be.

Plus staying cohesive and fighting on doesn't mean they were fighting all that effectively especially by 1945 when they basically imploded for the most part.

How many troops and vehicles total were sent to Kalinin that could have plausibly been sent to take Moscow?
I can't find exact numbers though I've been looking. The units would have been 1st Panzer division, which started with 99 operational tanks and about 2/3rds of their establishment strength at the start of Typhoon, 900th Lehr Brigade (a motorized infantry unit and forerunner of Panzer division Lehr), 36th motorized infantry division, and 6th infantry division, which was quite weak at this point due to suffering very badly in August during the Soviet offensives to try and retain Smolensk. They were probably about 1/3rd of their June 1941 strength and were effectively the equivalent strength of a US regimental combat team. They also had a number of corps troops as well, including supply, engineer, FLAK, a corps artillery unit and a few other helpful add ons. No numbers about the total, but if I had to venture a guess the total ground component was at least 20,000 men, mostly very experienced veterans. Just on the way to Kalinin they overran several Soviet divisions and captured thousands of Soviet troops and dozens of artillery and AT guns, plus a bunch of supplies, including enough fuel to sustain the entire corps for 24 hours of operations in the mud.

It should also be noted that they got very strong air support, including Ju52 air drops, which saved the 41st Panzer Corps when they were cut off in Kalinin until the 9th army caught up and reopened ground supply lines. The Luftwaffe based air fighters, bombers, and transports in the airfields in Kalinin to render the best air support they could, which was apparently the best any single Panzer Corps got in October. I haven't gotten far enough in the book to get Luftwaffe strength.
This is all from this book, which is the only one in English specifically about the Kalinin battles:

Even the author noted it the corps commander protested the order to head to Kalinin, he wanted to go east toward Moscow instead.

At the time there were only the 16th Army in the way to Moscow: two depleted Soviet cavalry divisions, 1 full strength rifle division with extra artillery attached but with 1 untrained regiment, and 1 depleted rifle division that was regimental strength defending Volokolamsk. They would end up sending the extra artillery and all their tanks to 5th army on their flank at Mozhiask to prop up those defenses.
 
Continuing to fight is not the same as being able to continue a large scale offensive. let alone take a city of 6m. They had to basically hunker down at the very stretched end of their supply lines and repulse Russian attacks (which they did pretty easily because a lot of those early Soviet counter attacks weren't well organised but rather piecemeal themselves).

There's also the problem that even if they're a bit faster and get there in slightly more numbers with a bit more fuel. Moscow is a big city that is a big fight.

OTL situation is worse than what I'm proposing here. In Mid October, the only thing defending Moscow is 90,000 men spread out in front of the city and a handful of NKVD security troops within the city maintaining order and setting demolition charges. With the concentration of the Panzer Corps, they can smash open the defensive line and then advance upon the city itself; as stated, there is nothing in there way at this point and those NKVD troops aren't prepared or even trying to prepare to defend the city, besides being far too low in numbers to do so anyway.

From Mid-October on, its only sporadic fighting with the Germans beginning to rest and stockpile logistics, having switched to the defensive. Contrast this to OTL where they were constantly slugging forth, expending vast amounts of logistics in the open weather for an additional six weeks.
 
The Heer would have less trouble supporting a single thrust a couple hundred kilometers across compared to three divergent thrusts along widely divergent axes.

Oh, I am sure. I was just wondering where the optimum point would come to switch from a 3-pronged to a 1-pronged attack.

And would it be enough for the Germans to actually take Moscow? If the Germans concentrate their effort, the Soviets can to. Now, the Soviets will be limited by their own logistics and their difficulty coordinating their officer-light formations, so it would be an interesting situation.

To be clear, this sort of strategy would result in defeat, probably somewhat earlier than IOTL, but it would allow for the OP's goal, namely take Moscow. There was no requirement to HOLD Moscow (my guess would be a potential capture by October 1st, with eviction by February of 1942 ending with the wholesale destruction of Army Group Center).

Ouch. Losing AGC almost 2 years early would hurt the Germans bad. Especially if AGN and AGS had been stripped to bulk up the fighting power of AGC during the last months of 1941.

fasquardon
 

TDM

Kicked
OTL situation is worse than what I'm proposing here. In Mid October, the only thing defending Moscow is 90,000 men spread out in front of the city and a handful of NKVD security troops within the city maintaining order and setting demolition charges. With the concentration of the Panzer Corps, they can smash open the defensive line and then advance upon the city itself; as stated, there is nothing in there way at this point and those NKVD troops aren't prepared or even trying to prepare to defend the city, besides being far too low in numbers to do so anyway.

From Mid-October on, its only sporadic fighting with the Germans beginning to rest and stockpile logistics, having switched to the defensive. Contrast this to OTL where they were constantly slugging forth, expending vast amounts of logistics in the open weather for an additional six weeks.

I'm not sure what you are suggesting as an ATL. You first off start by saying break through the Mozhaisk defense line but this is what they did mid Oct anyway (it's just their logistics and road conditions and the fact that they were worn down meant they couldn't press on). But then you say mid Oct they should rest and consolidate and stock pile?

But you can't do both?

Either way your problem for either is from early Oct the roads are turned to mud "rasputitsa", so attacking is hard and so waiting and resupplying is not guaranteed. Nw in OTL they went with attacking and broke through but still could move in, when the ground froze in Mid Nov the mud issue started to lift (but of course the cold brought it's own problems although how much is debatable*).



Zhukov also started fortifying Moscow from the moment he takes control on the 10th Oct, yes it's initially with a quarter million civilians digging trenches and tank traps and fortifying buildings but the idea that Moscow was defencelessness is kind of overdone IMO. Now long term such actions won't keep a determined well supplied and large German assault out but it doesn't need to because at worst it just has to buy time. Plus you don't have a well supplied German force to keep at that time. There's I think an underestimation of what is needed to take an hold a city of 6m people even without large numbers of red army in it, Moscow is big, way bigger than any Russian city they've attacked so far (hell it's bigger than any city the Germans attacked full stop)! Plus it's the wrong force to do it anyway, Panzers and mechanised panzer grenadiers are not what you want for this. You want all those infantry divisions who are stuck in the mud back down the line, which is why in previous encounters with cities the Panzers tend to bypass then but hopefully cutting them off from resupply and the following infantry moved in to take them and pacify them.


So the issues you have here for an ATL is that without changing anything else the Germans can't take it in Oct because of the mud and the state they are in from losses and what type of forces they have at the tip of the spear, their supplies are also stuck because of the mud meaning that once it freezes they're still going to have to wait to resupply. And they can't take it later because the Soviets have reinforced (basically OTL). Even once resupplied with supplies the Germans have in country catching up to the forward divisions they still can't get back to near full strength. i.e it not like those supply trains had thousands of fresh tanks in them to replace those lost in getting there! The German forward forces aren't just missing food and oil, they're missing men and machine as well have suffered serious loses even while doing so well.

The only way you can get out of the above is if you get the Germans to Moscow and supplied and supported well enough to attack before the roads turn to mud early Oct. But this means they have to have advanced quicker than then they did OTL by a month, only advancing quicker means those panzer are likely to have further dashed a head of their supplies and supporting infantry, and you don't just need the Panzers to get there a month earlier but their supplies and infantry to to get there that much faster as well!

Much is made of the earlier pause ordered on Army Group Centre to help with Kiev in the south, but that pause was also needed to allow the army group centre Panzer divisions to resupply because they were moving out of supply and it was a constant problem!

And you can't create more time at the other end by starting Barbarossa much earlier because in May the roads are mud again. and if you delay Barbarossa to the next fighting season (June 1942) in order to build up logistics that givens the Russians another year and there's no guarantee that Germany can provide the extra resources needed (not just the supplies but also the logistics to move it).



*in brief yes it came early and yes the 1941-42 winter was harsh in terms of temperatures overall etc. But in term of fighting in it in Nov/Dec the German perspective was often it was the worst thing ever stopping them (because it was a handy "not our fault" excuse for not beating the clearly inferior untermench), But the Russians liked to sometimes** claim "Oh the fascist are exaggerating they just couldn't face us" (because it flattered them that the only thing stopping the fascists was the heroes of the defiant red army). Of course this dissonance could also be just a matter of different experiences of cold winter on both sides, a really cold Russian winter probably does feel less of an impediment to some chap from Siberia than to some chap from Saxony! Like most thing reality is probably somewhere in the middle


**Russian claims vary though, sometimes they also liked "Mother Russia came to the aid of her valiant sons with general winter, silly fascists fighting in summer uniforms and leather boots, ho ho Russians be smarter than that" etc, etc.
 
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