How easily could the Pacific War have flopped for Japan? And to what results?

It's a generally accepted fact that, as strategically doomed as it was once it launched its Pacific Offensive, Japan had a string of remarkable victories that enabled it to last as long as it did. While a lot of people have asked about 'what if they had done better', I'd like to ask the opposite: where could the Japanese have tripped, and what sort of butterflies could we have seen?

I'm looking especially for the effects not only on the war, but the consequences (if any) come the Cold War and beyond.
 
There were a few stupid decisions in Malaysia during the retreat that favored the Japanese.
Reverse these [Boats, supplies, Equipment abandoned & not destroyed during retreat. Prince of Wale , Etc.] And the 3-1 British advantage holds Malaysia.

Malaysia Holding stops the Fall of Burma.

There were several Ships carrying Tanks, & Planes to the DEI that Japan sank in the early Weeks of the war.
If these get thru, the Japanese have a Harder time in the DEI.

If the US starts the Liberty Ship Program in early 1941, a lot of the Supplies and Equipment on the West Coast, Makes it to the Philippines Pre Pearl.

With Britain holding Malaysia/Burma, Holland the DEI, and the US still holding in the Philippines, till Mid 1942, The Japanese Fuel Problem begins to affect Japanese Operations.
 

Pangur

Donor
Submarines

Another possibily would be that alongg with the good ideas posted so far would be that the Pearl Harbour stike fleet run into a couple of subs on the way back to Japan sinking a carrier or two. Another (and far from impossible) would be that the various defects in the US torpedoes get sorted out faster. As to the effect on the post war world, of the top of my head

1: Delays in decolonisation
2: Delays in the production of nukes which IMHO would have made a third world war more likely
3: No Korean war
4: Germany defeated earlier
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Suppose the HMS Indomitable does not run aground on a coral reef in the Caribbean and consequently arrives in Singapore in time to participate in the defense of Malaya in company with HMS Repulse and HMS Prince of Wales. While the combined force might still be destroyed by the IJN, it could possibly succeed in locating and inflicting significant damage on the Japanese invasion force, allowing British troops to hold out in Malaya and therefore upset the entire Japanese strategic plan.
 

Bearcat

Banned
Suppose the HMS Indomitable does not run aground on a coral reef in the Caribbean and consequently arrives in Singapore in time to participate in the defense of Malaya in company with HMS Repulse and HMS Prince of Wales. While the combined force might still be destroyed by the IJN, it could possibly succeed in locating and inflicting significant damage on the Japanese invasion force, allowing British troops to hold out in Malaya and therefore upset the entire Japanese strategic plan.

I don't believe Indomitable carried the quantity or quality of aircraft to do this. They couldn't put up enough striking power to put enough of a dent in Yamashita's forces, and couldn't put up enough fighters to avoid being overwhelmed by sheer numbers of Nells and Bettys at sea. One RN carrier just didn't carry enough planes or have the quality of planes needed in 1941.
 
Malaya is a veritable goldmine of opportunities to trip up the Japanese. Personally I'd like to see a well led Malayan army launch a brigade size Op Matador and then stage a competent force-on-force fighting withdrawal trading space for time. That should hold Force Z in the south for those crucial first few days so it's available to intervene later when reinforced and the situation is clearer, preferably to destroy the invasion of Sumatra.
 
Like with Gallipoli this is one of the biggest potential WI's of the 20th Century. There are so many potential POD's that can result in Japan failing to conqueror Malaya and DEI. As well as better British leadership in the campaign itself, suppose Britain wins a decisive victory over the Italians in Libya in 1940 making Hitler conclude that a North African campaign isn't worth it. That means most of OTL's Eight Army and Desert Air Force could potentially have been sent east. With more men, better equipment and crucially, probably better generals, Britain has a much better chance of beating Japan. Failing to get the Burmese and DEI oilfields means Japan finds it more difficult to run it's military so it probably seeks peace in 1942/43.

Retaining Burma and Malaya with their valuable sources of oil, rubber and tin means Britain is able to fund the European War better and isn't quite in as much debt post war. The lack of Burmese rice supplies is given as a contributing factor to the 1943 Bengal Famine that helped inflame Nationalist sentiment in India so perhaps post war independence is delayed by a year or two potentially avoiding partition. Britain could also hang on to Malaya and some other colonies for longer as it would have been economically stronger.
 
Japan could have ruined its own Pacific War objectives early on very simple by attacking as it did, but not considering the possibility that sometimes things CAN (and do) go wrong. The overcomplicated timeschedules for the various phases were far too advanced in ingenuity and complexity to be considered effective, as it always had assumed Japan was far more superior in all aspects of warfare to the Colonial Powers of the West.

This self inflicted overconfidence was the biggest problem, as Japanese leadership simply did not calculate the possibilities that things can go wrong. When things in the OTL did go wrong, its simply was too inflexible to cope with this knowledge and readjust its far too tight structured planning.

With just one or two major things going not according to the planned phases of the Pacific War, Japan would be out of the war, even before it actually had started. (Major is prime objectives, such as the conquest of Malaya and incapacitating of (possibly capture of) Singapore. The Manchuko Area was the second primary front, as it was essential to keep the USSR out of the conflict, as it would soak up too muchj of Japan's military adn civilian resources, The Dutch East Indies were the final Primary objective, as it was the price to be won in the quest for resources, especially oil. All other objectives were less important, although strategically necessary to complete the primary goals. Securing the front was one of them, which included the Pacific Defense Barrier creation, by the capture of US bases Guam and Wake Island.)
 
I don't believe Indomitable carried the quantity or quality of aircraft to do this. They couldn't put up enough striking power to put enough of a dent in Yamashita's forces, and couldn't put up enough fighters to avoid being overwhelmed by sheer numbers of Nells and Bettys at sea. One RN carrier just didn't carry enough planes or have the quality of planes needed in 1941.

Bearcat

I think it could have saved the ships from being sunk, especially if as OTL the main attacks are launched without fighter cover. Even the relatively poor defencive fighters would have done a lot of damaged and probably as importantly broken up the Japanese attacks. Especially if the PoW avoids the critical torpedo strike that took away much of the defensive power and caused massive flooding. That means three ships, two with modern AA defences against a disrupted attack. Also I did read once that the attack used up the entire stock of air-launched torpedoes the Japanese had in SE Asia.

What they probably couldn't have done was noticeably affect the Japanese landings in Malaya. I believe those had already been completed before the force left Singapore. Furthermore, having narrowing missed an encounter with the covering Japanese fleet during the night, force Z was heading south again and only got caught as it was because of a false report of a Japanese landing at Kuantan which it reversed course to investigate.

Overall I think the survival of Force Z would have made little difference to the fight for Malaya. Although having a force in being to threaten later landings would have secured the defenders against that threat, which was a continued worry. Also possibly if used on the west coast they could have played a part in blocking a lot of the small landings the Japanese did there to turn defensive positions. However adding two powerful capital ships and a carrier to the defence of the Dutch Indies would have made the Japanese task there markedly more complex.

What it needed in Malaya was more land and air strength and better leadership. My favour option is what The Oncoming Storm storm mentions of an earlier clearing of Libya. This, even if Churchill manages to waste a lot in Greece or supplying Stalin, would give potentially huge resources [in comparison] available to boost the defences of the far East. Not to mention a serious bid to defend Malaya, with the forces that should have been in place according to pre-war plans, could quite possibly have altered the stance of the Thai government which was only a reluctant Japanese ally.

Another possibility. If Libya had been worn earlier there are no Axis supply routes across the Med to cut. Hence the bulk of the British sub force, instead of being exposed in the closed and clear Med waters, could have stayed where they were designed for, the far East. Especially with the Japanese neglect of ASW this could have made things very, very costly for the Japanese invasion forces moving south by sea.

Steve
 
Well, if the Philippines and Singapore had been given some, I don't know, actual military defenses and adequately trained troops, things might have gone differently.

British tanks/anti-tank guns in Malaya could have helped blunt the Japanese offensive. 1930s British doctrine insisted that tanks could never operate in the dense jungle, but when the Japanese invasion came the British encountered Japanese light tanks maneuvering easily through spacious plantations and fields, and the British had nothing to counter them with.

Also, if the Chinese spent more time fighting the Japanese and less time fighting each other, the Allies would be a lot better off.
 
Stronger defense at Pearl harbor costing the Japanese more planes and pilots that would be needed for later attacks? Maybe the radar warnings allow for more planes to get in the air to defend Pearl? The battle still might be more lopsided in the Japanese favor, but not like OTL.

Torqumada
 

Bearcat

Banned
Bearcat

I think it could have saved the ships from being sunk, especially if as OTL the main attacks are launched without fighter cover. Even the relatively poor defencive fighters would have done a lot of damaged and probably as importantly broken up the Japanese attacks. Especially if the PoW avoids the critical torpedo strike that took away much of the defensive power and caused massive flooding. That means three ships, two with modern AA defences against a disrupted attack. Also I did read once that the attack used up the entire stock of air-launched torpedoes the Japanese had in SE Asia.

Problems here. The weather that day IIRC included a pretty good cloud cover. Radar controlled intercept in still being worked out in the RN. With all the waves of attackers coming in from various headings, its probably ASB to catch them all. Particularly since the Indomitable likely could only support a handful of fighters aloft at any one time. Wildcats / Martlets can down a Nell or two, but if they have to chase them all over the sky, and have only limited numbers of fighters to do so, things are going to get hairy pretty quickly.

From the IJN perspective, the carrier becomes the priority target and will almost certainly be sunk. The BBs might survive more or less intact, but now have no air cover and won't know that the IJN is low on torpedoes. They are also in Long Lance country (subs, destroyers and cruisers). If Phillips or his successor doesn't get out of Dodge quickly, he may not get out at all.

Of course, in a naval battle, luck plays a huge role and almost anything can happen. The RN could roll a dozen sevens in a roll here and ruin the IJN's day. But my feeling is that is a low probability outcome. A major RN defeat is more likely.
 
The simplest explanation would be to have the attack on Pearl Harbor not be the overwhelming victory it was. Pearl Harbor is the classic example of a tactical triumph being a strategic disaster. It united a divided and isolationist America and filled everyone with a determination to fight to the end.

Now what if Pearl Harbor were still launched and still succeeded but was not nearly the disaster it was in our time line?

At 6:45 the US destroyer Ward sent the following message:
"We have attacked, fired upon, and dropped depth charges on a submarine operating in defensive sea areas."

They had run into one of the five mini-subs the Japanese had sent in ahead as part of their surprise attack. Now given the fact Admiral King had received a ‘war warning’ recently this report should have sent the base into alert. Instead it was assumed that the sub was imaginary, that they were chasing shadows. Behind this was the basic belief that the Japanese would never dare attack Pearl; the Philippines, Wake, or Guam perhaps but not Pearl.

What if the mood at naval headquarters were just a bit more paranoid or nervous? What if the warning were taken at face value?

The first planes will not launch from the Japanese carriers until 7:40. There is enough time, if the message is taken seriously, to sound the alert have a combat air patrol formed and much more importantly have the fleet leave port and make for open water making them much less vulnerable.

Nagumo had orders to carry out the attack even if his fleet were discovered. The planes still would have gone in but rather than finding aircraft lined up wing to wing and ships at berth US fighters are attacking them and the warships are moving targets filling the sky with anti-aircraft fire.

The Japanese still have surprise on their side and the Americans are confused while the P – 36’s, P – 40’s, and F4F’s are no match for the Zeroes. They do however do some damage to the Kates and Vals while making their attack runs much more difficult.

USS West Virginia is sunk while Arizona and Nevada are both hit and damaged. The US loses a total of 63 planes in the air and on the ground. The Japanese lose 47, mostly torpedo planes and dive bombers. There is damage done to Ford Island and to the various air bases and facilities; none of it will be deemed critical. Despite having an active radar station the situation is too confused to take advantage of it.

No US counter attacks are launched or even attempted.

Recovering his second strike Nagumo decides to immediately withdraw. He is disappointed at the scope of the victory, but it is victory. Though he understands that the goal of destroying the US Pacific Fleet has not been met.

Also let us assume that the Japanese ambassadors were not delayed and delivered their country’s declaration of war to Secretary Hull on time. The fury against the surprise attack is still great, just not quite as ferocious as it might have been.

With the Pacific Fleet still intact and all three front line carriers untouched the navy would have gone out to fight for the Philippines. Wake and Guam would also have been saved and then reinforced, badly damaging Japanese plans. With the navy intact the army in the Philippines could be supplied and reinforced; meaning no Corregidor and no Bataan.

The Japanese may still succeed in taking the Dutch East Indies as well as Malaysia and Singapore but they are in no position to threaten New Zealand or Australia, never mind India. If they are forced into a grinding battle against the US in the Philippines they are never able to create a defensive perimeter around the Home Islands. Japan itself is threatened with bombing from 1942 on and more importantly its shipping will be attacked from air and naval bases on Luzon and the other islands.

The irony is that all this might be a POSITIVE for Japan IF Hirohito is able to enforce his will on his military and convince them that a negotiated settlement is in their best interest. Also assuming this takes place prior to the Allied demand for unconditional surrender. Given the circumstances FDR might have been open to negotiations in order to fully concentrate on defeating Germany. They would have to yield up their gains in the Pacific, Indonesia, and (bitter pill) China. But just might be able to keep Manchuria and Korea. Most importantly they could avoid the utter defeat and conquest of the original time line if they were never in a strong enough position to think they could wear down the US.
 
I don't think it's possible for the entire fleet, or even the main battle line to have left port in less than an hour. Some of them certainly, but not all of them.

Torqumada
 

Art

Monthly Donor
Indeed . . .

It takes HOURS for Battleships to get up to steam. . . and warships at sea does not make them safer. . . Look at what happened to Prince of Wales and Repulse. But yes, the AIRCRAFT would not be caught lined in neat rows. That is a HUGE POD. If the fighters get off the ground, then the first strike is DEAD MEAT. I know people will say ‘A-6M ZERO-SEN will murder our Wildcats, Buffalos, and other obsolete fighters’, but that is not QUITE true. Tomahawks took on the Japanese Army ‘Zero’ fighter, the Hayabusa, over China. The American Volunteer Group, the A. V. G. , took on Japanese squadrons over China and Burma. They gave as good as they got. Japanese aircraft had a crucial weakness. They gave up pilot armor and self-sealing fuel tanks for speed and range. And their armament, aside from their 20mm cannons, did not hit hard enough. The first thing our pilots learned, is ‘do not ‘turn turn again with Zero-Sen.’ If our planes hit theirs head on, we would shoot theirs down. And they had a TINY cadre of pilots that got shot down. For example, the pilot who is credited with putting the fatal bomb in U. S. N. S. Arizona, was shot down at the Battle of Wake Island. If the Japanese ‘lose officially’ 47 aircraft, then they will have damage to many more. How many pilots dead?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
There is no way to get the Battle Line out to sea in an hour. It couldn't complete that evolution in an hour with two days notice.

Nevada managed to get underway because she was the "duty ship" and she had steam up. The rest of the ships were tied into the shore electrical supply with their boilers either completely or mostly shut down. They were quite literally sitting ducks.

If,by whatever means the Fleet did sortie, the result is far worse for the USN than IOTL. At sea the ships that are sunk are gone for good. The Japanese were hoping that the fleet would try to sortie, they had a significant submarine force waiting for that exact eventuality. The ships can't out run the attacking planes, and as demonstrated far too often in the war's first two years IJN pilots and submarine commanders were quite capable of making successful attacks against warships in open water.

This isn't to say that a better prepared Pearl Harbor would not have been a much harder target. It would have been. There are several T/L here that look at that in some detail.

The easiest thing for the Japanese to flounder on is Wake. Wake is probably the biggest game changer as well, at least as far as the conduct of the war.

After that it is actually securing both Singapore and the Manila Bay. Malaya and the Philippines were going to fall, but Singapore could have held longer perhaps into late spring and Bataan, if MacArthur had decided to actually move the three+ months worth of rations onto Bataan as the War Plan called for instead of burning it :)mad:), could have held well into the Summer.

The simplest explanation would be to have the attack on Pearl Harbor not be the overwhelming victory it was. Pearl Harbor is the classic example of a tactical triumph being a strategic disaster. It united a divided and isolationist America and filled everyone with a determination to fight to the end.

Now what if Pearl Harbor were still launched and still succeeded but was not nearly the disaster it was in our time line?

At 6:45 the US destroyer Ward sent the following message:
"We have attacked, fired upon, and dropped depth charges on a submarine operating in defensive sea areas."

They had run into one of the five mini-subs the Japanese had sent in ahead as part of their surprise attack. Now given the fact Admiral King had received a ‘war warning’ recently this report should have sent the base into alert. Instead it was assumed that the sub was imaginary, that they were chasing shadows. Behind this was the basic belief that the Japanese would never dare attack Pearl; the Philippines, Wake, or Guam perhaps but not Pearl.

What if the mood at naval headquarters were just a bit more paranoid or nervous? What if the warning were taken at face value?

The first planes will not launch from the Japanese carriers until 7:40. There is enough time, if the message is taken seriously, to sound the alert have a combat air patrol formed and much more importantly have the fleet leave port and make for open water making them much less vulnerable.

Nagumo had orders to carry out the attack even if his fleet were discovered. The planes still would have gone in but rather than finding aircraft lined up wing to wing and ships at berth US fighters are attacking them and the warships are moving targets filling the sky with anti-aircraft fire.

The Japanese still have surprise on their side and the Americans are confused while the P – 36’s, P – 40’s, and F4F’s are no match for the Zeroes. They do however do some damage to the Kates and Vals while making their attack runs much more difficult.

USS West Virginia is sunk while Arizona and Nevada are both hit and damaged. The US loses a total of 63 planes in the air and on the ground. The Japanese lose 47, mostly torpedo planes and dive bombers. There is damage done to Ford Island and to the various air bases and facilities; none of it will be deemed critical. Despite having an active radar station the situation is too confused to take advantage of it.

No US counter attacks are launched or even attempted.

Recovering his second strike Nagumo decides to immediately withdraw. He is disappointed at the scope of the victory, but it is victory. Though he understands that the goal of destroying the US Pacific Fleet has not been met.

Also let us assume that the Japanese ambassadors were not delayed and delivered their country’s declaration of war to Secretary Hull on time. The fury against the surprise attack is still great, just not quite as ferocious as it might have been.

With the Pacific Fleet still intact and all three front line carriers untouched the navy would have gone out to fight for the Philippines. Wake and Guam would also have been saved and then reinforced, badly damaging Japanese plans. With the navy intact the army in the Philippines could be supplied and reinforced; meaning no Corregidor and no Bataan.

The Japanese may still succeed in taking the Dutch East Indies as well as Malaysia and Singapore but they are in no position to threaten New Zealand or Australia, never mind India. If they are forced into a grinding battle against the US in the Philippines they are never able to create a defensive perimeter around the Home Islands. Japan itself is threatened with bombing from 1942 on and more importantly its shipping will be attacked from air and naval bases on Luzon and the other islands.

The irony is that all this might be a POSITIVE for Japan IF Hirohito is able to enforce his will on his military and convince them that a negotiated settlement is in their best interest. Also assuming this takes place prior to the Allied demand for unconditional surrender. Given the circumstances FDR might have been open to negotiations in order to fully concentrate on defeating Germany. They would have to yield up their gains in the Pacific, Indonesia, and (bitter pill) China. But just might be able to keep Manchuria and Korea. Most importantly they could avoid the utter defeat and conquest of the original time line if they were never in a strong enough position to think they could wear down the US.
 
Well, if the Philippines and Singapore had been given some, I don't know, actual military defenses and adequately trained troops, things might have gone differently.

British tanks/anti-tank guns in Malaya could have helped blunt the Japanese offensive. 1930s British doctrine insisted that tanks could never operate in the dense jungle, but when the Japanese invasion came the British encountered Japanese light tanks maneuvering easily through spacious plantations and fields, and the British had nothing to counter them with.

Also, if the Chinese spent more time fighting the Japanese and less time fighting each other, the Allies would be a lot better off.

You don't get given adequately trained troops, you get troops and train them yourself. The beauty of that system is that you find out that your OA isn't dense jungle but has a lot of plantations and agricutural land and prepare accordingly. Ideally you request more of everything but prepare to fight with what you have.
 
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