How does WWII unfold without the Soviet Union?

the best case for Nazi regime would be to stop after they had destroyed much of Soviet military and captured Leningrad? they could demand all the aircraft and naval vessels, as well as obviously grain and oil for "occupation costs" beyond anything they could have gained from marching on Ukraine and Caucasus? (cannot imagine a USSR that withdraws from the war would receive much if any Lend Lease aid? so their situation would be pretty dire and unable to reconstruct a modern military. they would closely resemble the KMT China regime with large occupied part of their country)

Then there would be residual Red Army formations in the Caucasus. their raiding and efforts at partisan warfare would be another incentive. If the Allies build up a army group in Persia and start probing north ...

Heres a minor question. Under the conditions of the OP, what residual Red Army could still exist east of the Volga? Even if there is a armistice how large a future threat would be a 'Russian' or communist state in that region be? Population, industry, withdrawn armies and weapons after the end of the Soviet debacle?

what if my scenario occurred and Soviets forced to terms? could their oilfields become target similar to French fleet after their armistice? (an Allied target)
 
what if my scenario occurred and Soviets forced to terms? could their oilfields become target similar to French fleet after their armistice? (an Allied target)

Possibly. If they are still Soviet controlled, neutral territory as it were I'd guess it would be less likely. The Allied AF leaders may prefer attacking targets in hostile Germany. The railways & refineries were as productive a target as anything OTL.
 
How likely is it that the Germans would undercut their advantage though by doing something dumb like, say, launching an invasion of the Middle East from the Caucasus?

These are the Nazis, who made an art form out of following insane plans, and had enough blackmail on Lady Luck to get away with it for years. Just because it's stupid doesn't mean they won't try it.

'Bleeding dry' was the British strategy. I cant see it working if the Allies don't get a grip on a substantial portion of the Germany army somewhere. Forcing them to hunker down inside Fortress Europe is one thing, but that does not end the war before the Allies suffer long term economic effects as well. So the Allies have to force battle at points where their advantages in the air and sea, & industrial strength offset the large land army the Germans can field.

Sorry, I was unclear - hunkering down would be the German response to Anglo-American efforts to use America's industrial capacity to win a war of attrition, not a goal for the British.
 
what are the factions inside the USSR? that might predict the result from defeated or sidelined Soviet state?

(my question would be about party operatives, in a defeat they may be detested by regular army and population and bear brunt of Stalin's missteps?)
 
Those Sovietologists are getting a bit elderly, hope one is still available to answer that question. Afraid a old friend of mine, and expert on Soviet politics of that era, is no longer able to help us with this. I'm guessing he would ask if the members of the Politburo & Stalins inner circle are eliminated, with the regional party chiefs left to fend for themselves? Or if the Politburo gang remains in power in the east.
 
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